SUPER RUGBY WEEK 17
Blues v Reds
The June International window has been and gone and we get down to the last three weeks of Super Rugby with the primary colour clash between the Blues and Reds.
A quick recap, the Blues lost their last 3 matches before the break all at home while the Reds lost their last 4 matches. The break couldn’t have come quick enough for both sides.
The Blues are yet to win at home all season while the Reds have only won 1 game away from home all season, so not much of a record to go by for this game.
The Blues have beaten the Reds the last two clashes at home by 30 and 5 points respectively. The last three games between the sides have averaged 57 points per game.
Not really confident on anything here so we’ll leave this game alone.
Rebels v Waratahs
The Rebels went on a decent run before the June break with 3 wins on the trot, though these were to fairly average teams in the Blues, Sunwolves and Brumbies. The Waratahs had a close loss to the Chiefs and a high scoring win against the Reds to close out there run before the break.
The Waratahs have a fantastic record against the Rebels winning 7 of the last 8 games this season. They’re also yet to lose an Australian derby this season. A few injury and judiciary concerns around the Waratahs with Michael Hooper and Israel Folau set to be crossed out for this clash, while for the Rebels it looks like star half back Will Genia will also be a non starter.
I think the line is about right for this game so not confident on either side here.
Highlanders v Chiefs
The match of the round for mine and the winner of this clash is likely to face the Hurricanes in the 4th and 5th playoff game in the playoffs. The Highlanders had a nice win against the Hurricanes before the break while the Chiefs succumbed to the Crusaders by 14 points before the break.
The Highlanders have won their last 13 home games. They’ve also won 4 of the last 5 home games against the Chiefs. I think they’re the better side, the Chiefs are yet to register back to back wins since March/April and have a Win/Loss pattern going at the moment.
This should be low scoring with the last 5 games between these two sides averaging a low 41 points per game.
I do think the Highlanders can beat the handicap in this game and we’ll have a crack at that.
Brumbies v Hurricanes
The Brumbies won their last two games before the break against the Bulls and Sunwolves while the Hurricanes lost their last two against the Highlanders and Crusaders.
The Hurricanes have won 3 of their last 4 games against the Brumbies winning their last two by 35 and 19 points respectively. They’ve lost their last two away games however.
One stat of some importance is the quality of sides Brumbies have beaten. They haven’t beaten a Top 8 side all year and the Hurricanes are a top 4 side.
I really like the Hurricanes in this one and think they’ll do the job quite easily.
Sunwolves v Bulls
The Sunwolves are the real improvers of this years competition they had a couple of good wins against the Reds and Stormers prior to the break though they also had losses to the Rebels and Brumbies. The Bulls also lost to the Brumbies prior to the break and were hammered by the Jaguares too.
The Bulls have won 3 of their 4 games against the Sunwolves though they lost last years clash 21-20. The Bulls have only won 1 of 6 away games this season while the Sunwolves have won their last two home clashes.
Not keen on anything in this one.
Sharks v Lions
The Sharks have had a mixed season this year but had a good win against the Chiefs prior to the break and a loss to the flying Jaguares. The Lions had two wins on the trot to the Brumbies and Stormers prior to the break.
The Lions have the wood over the Sharks winning their last 7 games though 4 of those games were within 7 points. The Sharks have only lost 1 home game this season (including 1 draw). While the Lions have a solid yet unspectacular away record this season winning 3 of 7 games.
Both teams have plenty to play for but I think the Either team Under 7.5 is the way to go here.
Jaguares v Stormers
The Jaguares are flying at present with 6 wins on the trot with good wins against the Sharks and Bulls prior to the break. The Stormers meanwhile lost their last 3 games against Chiefs, Sunwolves and Lions.
The Stormers have won all 3 clashes against the Jaguares in the past though all have been within 8 points. The Stormers are also yet to win away from home this season and you’d be brave to pick them to win this one too. One thing against the Jaguares is that most of their players played for Argentina over the break and they had a shocker losing to Wales twice and Scotland once.
Not keen on anything.
RESULTS STAKES ROI Week Eighteen -6.15 12 -51% Week Seventeen -3.1 8 -39% Week Sixteen -2.3 8 -29% Week Fifteen +1.1 7.5 15% Week Fourteen -0.38 8 -5% Week Thirteen -3.78 11.5 -33% Week Twelve +1.75 8 22% Week Eleven +9.25 11.5 80% Week Ten +5.5 12.5 44% Week Nine +1.3 11 12% Week Eight +5.84 9 65% Week Seven +5.98 19 31% Week Six +2.64 9 29% Week Five -4.7 9 -52% Week Four -4.4 12 -37% Total +8.55 156 5%