SUPER RUGBY WEEK 14
Hurricanes v Reds
The Canes easily accounted for the Blues last week while the Reds continue to struggle after being beaten by the Sunwolves.
The Hurricanes have the wood over the Reds winning 7 of the last 8 against the boys from Queensland. They do tend to rack up decent wins also with the last 4 matches having an average winning margin of 16 points to the Hurricanes.
The Hurricanes have rested Laumape but apart from that they have a star studded team.
The handicap has gone up a high -28.5 in favour of the Canes. I think that’s about right so no bet for this game.
Sunwolves v Stormers
The Sunwolves hammered the Reds last week in a minor upset, that’s there first win of the season. The Stormers were kept tryless against the Chiefs in a loss.
These teams have played 4 times in the past with the Stormers winning 3 of these games and a surprise draw thrown in there. The Average winning margin by the Stormers over the Sunwolves across those 4 games is 19 points per game, though this is due to big wins when the Stormers are playing at home. The average aggregate score across those 4 games is 60.5 points.
I think the Sunwolves will have huge confidence after last week and I think the plus is the way to go here.
Blues v Crusaders
The Blues were soundly beaten by the Hurricanes while the Crusaders came from 29-0 down against the Waratahs to win.
The Blues struggle against the Crusaders. They’ve lost their last 6 games against the South Islanders and have not beaten the Crusaders since February 2014. The last two games at Eden Park between these two sides were victories to the Crusaders by 5 and 23 points respectively.
They do tend to have relatively low scoring games with the last 6 matches between these sides averaging a low 44.5 points per game.
I think the Blues will bounce back after a dissapointing game last week so I think the plus is the way to go here.
Waratahs v Highlanders
The Waratahs played well for 20min last week in their close loss to the Crusaders. The Highlanders bounced back and beat the Lions with little trouble.
Between 2009 and 2015 the home team has won this fixture, though the Waratahs have not tasted victory against the Highlanders since July 2014 with the Highlanders winning their last 4 clashes. The Highlanders may rest some of their players this week due to the All Blacks policy. Over the last 3 matches against the Waratahs the Highlanders have scored a healthy 30 points or more.
I like the Highlanders in this one, I think they’ll cover the handicap, the Waratahs to me will be shattered after letting that lead slip.
Sharks v Chiefs
The Sharks were beaten by the Bulls last week while the Chiefs beat the Stormers.
The Chiefs have a good record against the Sharks winning 6 of their last 7 games. This is one of the lowest scoring fixture averages across all games with their last 8 games averaging a very low 38 points per game, only 3 of those last 8 games have gone over 40 points.
The Chiefs are resting a few players for this one as Brodie Retallick is on his way home and will not take part.
Lions v Brumbies
The Lions were outplayed by the Highlanders last week, while the Brumbies lost to the Rebels in an upset at home.
A surprising statistic is the away team has won this fixture in the last 4 games. The last two games the Brumbies have played against the Lions in South Africa they had decent wins of 10 and 14 points respectively.
Relatively low scoring fixture with the average points across the last 5 games between these two sides being 42 points per game.
Jaguares v Bulls
The Jaguares had the bye last week while the Bulls won against the Sharks at home.
These teams have played twice before with the home team winning both games (1 game each). The Jaguares have been flying of late winning their last 4 games, all away games too. But, a very worrying statistic is that the Jaguares have lost every game in history after having a bye.
Of the two games these teams have played each other an average of 39.5 points per game has been scored.
I think the Jaguares momentum might have stopped after the Bye so willing to back the Bulls in a must win game.
RESULTS STAKES ROI Semi Finals -0.14 2 -7% Quarter Finals -0.28 8 -4% Week Nineteen +4.53 5 91% Week Eighteen -6.15 12 -51% Week Seventeen -3.1 8 -39% Week Sixteen -2.3 8 -29% Week Fifteen +1.1 7.5 15% Week Fourteen -0.38 8 -5% Week Thirteen -3.78 11.5 -33% Week Twelve +1.75 8 22% Week Eleven +9.25 11.5 80% Week Ten +5.5 12.5 44% Week Nine +1.3 11 12% Week Eight +5.84 9 65% Week Seven +5.98 19 31% Week Six +2.64 9 29% Week Five -4.7 9 -52% Week Four -4.4 12 -37% Total +12.66 171 7%