SUPER RUGBY WEEK 11
Hurricanes v Sunwolves
The Hurricanes had the bye last week and have a rather soft game first up against the Sunwolves. The Sunwolves started off terrible in last weeks game against the Crusaders but at times were aggressive in their attacking, losing to the current champions by 22 points in a rain affected game.
This should be a bloodbath. The Hurricanes have the luxury of resting some players and they have done just that with Ngani Laumape having a breather this week as part of the resting policy the All Blacks have introduced to the Super Rugby teams this year.
If dry I would play the minus as I think the Hurricanes can wrack up a big score here. If wet then the plus comes into play. Because of the uncertainty of weather I’m happy to stay out of this one for now.
Stormers v Rebels
The Stormers had a hard fought loss to the Sharks last week while the Rebels looked terrible against the Bulls and it was really surprising that they managed to stay to losing by just 18 points.
The Rebels have massive injury issues including the Haylett-Petty boys who are not playing this weekend. Captain Adam Coleman has shrugged off injury and will play though.
The Rebels do struggle away from home having only won 1 out of the last 9 away games and the Stormers do play well at home winning 9 out of the last 11 home games. Originally I thought the Rebels were a good bet this week, but with the injuries that they have and the way they played last week I can’t get enthused in this game either.
Reds v Lions
The Reds played very average last week in getting hammered by the Chiefs at Suncorp Stadium. The Lions on the other hand caused somewhat of an upset against the Waratahs hammering them 29-0.
The Lions seem to have sorted out their defence after earlier in the season leaking try after try. The Reds season has been quite the opposite. At the start they were one of the best defensive teams in the competitions and in recent weeks have been one of the worst.
The Lions will be looking for the full 5 points in this game and I think they’ll be playing very attacking rugby to try and score plenty of tries. Can the Reds stop them? The Lions have beaten the Reds on the past 3 occasions.
Typically the games between these teams are rather low scoring with the last 5 games averaging just 49 points per game.
Unfortunately I don’t see anything of value here as I marked it where the market is at the moment.
Blues v Jaguares
The Blues again failed to beat a New Zealand side getting thrashed by the Highlanders 34-16. The Jaguares caused another upset on their overseas tour beating the Brumbies by 5 points in Canberra.
The Blues injury problems are massive and the team they’ve named this week again is a glorified ITM Cup side. The Jaguares are on the improve and showing what they are actually capable of if they get everything right.
These teams have only played once with the Blues winning at home 24-16 in 2016. The Blues have lost all 3 home games this season while the Jaguares have won their last 2 away games.
The market has gone up a generous +9.5 for the Jaguares and that is just too good to not have a play on.
Jaguares +9.54 at 1.90+3.6
Brumbies v Crusaders
The Brumbies bumbled around last week and lost to the Jaguares while the Crusaders could have put a cricket score on the Sunwolves had the rain and hail not arrived shortly after they went 12 points up with little time gone.
Crusaders have a great record against the Brumbies of late winning the last 7 matches played between the two sides. The Last three matches in Canberra between these teams has averaged 56 points per game. The Crusaders are on a 4 match winning streak while the Brumbies have dropped their last 2 games and their hopes of playing in the playoffs appear thin.
The Crusaders should win this game fairly easily, just unsure how much. So we’ll leave this game.
Bulls v Highlanders
The Bulls beat the Rebels last week very comfortably and probably could have gone on with it a little more had the Rebels not slowed down the second half through allegedly faking injuries. The Highlanders played well against the Blues last week but that was to be expected.
The Bulls come into this match on a 3 match winning streak and are becoming one of the form teams of the competition having beaten the Rebels, Stormers and Sharks in recent weeks. The Highlanders have won their last 2 after they had back to back losses again competition front runners the Hurricanes and the Chiefs.
The Highlanders have a good record against the Bulls winning 4 of their last 5. The Bulls have a strong home record winning 3 of 4 this season while the Highlanders have lost 2 out of 3 away from home.
I really like the Bulls in this game, I think they’re building nicely and this is almost a must win game for them to push for playoff honours. I think the price is completely wrong and I’m happy to back it.
Bulls to Win1.5 at 2.75-1.5
RESULTS STAKES ROI Semi Finals -0.14 2 -7% Quarter Finals -0.28 8 -4% Week Nineteen +4.53 5 91% Week Eighteen -6.15 12 -51% Week Seventeen -3.1 8 -39% Week Sixteen -2.3 8 -29% Week Fifteen +1.1 7.5 15% Week Fourteen -0.38 8 -5% Week Thirteen -3.78 11.5 -33% Week Twelve +1.75 8 22% Week Eleven +9.25 11.5 80% Week Ten +5.5 12.5 44% Week Nine +1.3 11 12% Week Eight +5.84 9 65% Week Seven +5.98 19 31% Week Six +2.64 9 29% Week Five -4.7 9 -52% Week Four -4.4 12 -37% Total +12.66 171 7%