SUPER RUGBY WEEK 10
Blues v Highlanders
The Blues beat the Sunwolves last week though they struggled to even do that. Their season hasn’t gone how they’d hoped and I can’t see it getting better against the Highlanders this weekend.
The Highlanders had a solid win against the Brumbies, it took them a while to gain momentum but they did so in scoring 28 points in the last 20 minutes of the game.
The Highlanders have the wood over the Blues of late (like all NZ teams) having won 5 of their last 6 matches against the Blues. An interesting stat for these two teams is out of the last 6 matches played between the sides, the winning margin has been by 7 points or less, 5 times.
I can’t see the Blues improving what so ever, they may when Sonny Bill Williams comes back but it won’t be this week. I’m tipping a Highlanders victory by a fair few points.
Waratahs v Lions
The Waratahs continue their good run of form even without Israel Folau in the side. They’ve now won 4 on the trot after bashing the Reds last week.
The Lions had the bye last week after a good result against the Stormers, who have struggled after their NZ tour.
These matches tend to be rather high scoring with the last 6 matches between these sides averaging 65 points per match. Another stat to note is the home side has won the last 5 matches between these sides.
I like the way the Waratahs have progressed in the last few weeks and I think they’ll win this one, I think their price presents value. We also may have a look at the totals come Friday.
Crusaders v Sunwolves
The Crusaders enjoyed the bye last week after beating the Jaguares the week prior. The Sunwolves played a good match against the Blues and only lost by 14 points in the end, but they’re the Sunwolves and they won’t be winning this match.
The line has gone up -38.5 for this match. I marked it -40. I can’t really get too enthused in backing the minus though as all the Crusaders will be looking to do is secure 5 points and work on different combinations. The Sunwolves have now lost 15 of their last 16 matches while the Crusaders have won their last 12 at home.
Stay out, no bet.
Reds v Chiefs
Ever since the Reds returned from overseas they’ve looked like the Reds of old; useless. They got pounded by the Waratahs last week after hanging in there a little for most of the game.
The Chiefs had a loss to competition leaders the Hurricanes who seem to be in a different class of their own.
The Chiefs have won the last 3 matches against the Reds, all by considerably margins (21 points or more). The Reds tend to struggle against the Chiefs; in the last 3 matches alone they’ve scored an average of 3 points per game, while the Chiefs have averaged 40.
I think the Reds again will struggle in this one. The Chiefs will want the full 5 points and barring any late outs I’ll be all in on the Chiefs in a big score.
Bulls v Rebels
The Bulls are somewhat of a surprise package this year, tipped to finish 2nd last in their conference they’re now 2nd equal with a game in hand. They had a good win against the Sharks last week which was predicted in last weeks edition.
The Rebels seem to have lost their mojo, losing 3 of their last 4 matches. They looked lost last week after going up early against the Jaguares and then had nothing to give in the second half as the Jaguares came over the top to win.
The Bulls have beaten the Rebels in 4 of their last 5 clashes, the other match they only lost to the Rebels by 1 point. Their average winning margin at home against the Rebels is 30 points. I think we’re in for another blowout too.
Sharks v Stormers
A massive battle for both teams who sit on 13 and 14 points coming into the weekend. This match could spell the end for one team and propel the other into a potential playoff spot.
The Sharks as mentioned lost to the Bulls last week while the Stormers had the weekend off.
The Sharks have had the upper hand against the Stormers of late winning 4 of their last 5 matches. These matches tend to be rather low scoring with an average of 39 points per game over the last 6 games.
I’m pretty unsure of this one, both teams are struggling a little, I’d give the Sharks a slight edge but that is pretty much what the market is.
Brumbies v Jaguares
The last of the games and it’s good to see a Sunday match on the program this week. Let’s just hope the weather is fine so we can enjoy some dry park footy.
The Brumbies had a loss against the Highlanders last week though they were in the match for 75% of the game, until an intercept buried their fate. The Jaguares meanwhile had an upset win against the Rebels which was a real game of two halves.
These teams have only played once before with the Brumbies winning in Buenos Aires 39-15. The Jaguares have a good record in Australia having won all three games played.
Think it’s best to stay out of this game, I marked it what the market has and nothing is standing out in the betting of value.
RESULTS STAKES ROI Semi Finals -0.14 2 -7% Quarter Finals -0.28 8 -4% Week Nineteen +4.53 5 91% Week Eighteen -6.15 12 -51% Week Seventeen -3.1 8 -39% Week Sixteen -2.3 8 -29% Week Fifteen +1.1 7.5 15% Week Fourteen -0.38 8 -5% Week Thirteen -3.78 11.5 -33% Week Twelve +1.75 8 22% Week Eleven +9.25 11.5 80% Week Ten +5.5 12.5 44% Week Nine +1.3 11 12% Week Eight +5.84 9 65% Week Seven +5.98 19 31% Week Six +2.64 9 29% Week Five -4.7 9 -52% Week Four -4.4 12 -37% Total +12.66 171 7%