SUPER RUGBY WEEK 6
Crusaders v Bulls
The Crusaders suffered a second loss in a row last week, falling to the Highlanders. The Bulls suffered three losses on the trot with an unfortunate loss to the Chiefs after starting the game positively.
Both these teams will be in desperate need to get their campaign back on track. The Crusaders have made five changes this week where a few key players come back from injury including Sam Whitelock and Ryan Crotty.
The home team has won this clash in 9 of the last 10 matches. Last year the Crusaders won away from home however. The Crusaders are strong at home winning their last 11 games.
These teams have typically high scoring matches, averaging 60 points per game in the last 5 games. Though there is some rain around so this could potentially bring the total down.
I think the Crusaders will win but the Bulls looked impressive last week for 80% of the game, while the Crusaders once again struggled. I think the Bulls can cover the handicap start, especially with the rain around.
Bulls +20.53 at 1.95+2.85
Rebels v Sharks
The Rebels played two different halves last week, looked impressive in the first and terrible in the second in losing to the Waratahs last Sunday. The Sharks lost to the Brumbies and despite only losing by 7 points they were never really in the game at all.
The Rebels have never beaten the Sharks, however they drew in last years clash 9-9 in Durban. The Rebels are 2-0 at home this season while the Sharks are 0-2 in away games. These teams tend to have low scoring matches with the last 3 games averaging 34 points per game.
Not interested in anything in particular, so will stay out of this game.
Sunwolves v Chiefs
The Sunwolves were incredible last week in their near loss to the Lions, arguably letting the game slip away with a few too many errors. The Chiefs had a great second half to come back and beat the Bulls, with the score line looking a bit flattering.
The Sunwolves have now lost 12 of their last 13 matches and I don't think they'll be winning this one. Not interested in having anything in this game so we'll leave it.
Hurricanes v Highlanders
This looks to be the game of the round, the Hurricanes have found form while the Highlanders are undefeated. The Hurricanes come off the bye while the Highlanders had a tough win against the Crusaders.
The Hurricanes have won 4 of their last 6 games against the Hurricanes and they've only lost 1 of their last 15 matches at home.
The Hurricanes are statistically the best defensive team in the competition to date, conceding on average only 16 points per game.
The weather might play a part in this one but I think the Hurricanes are looking the best team in the competition, despite an early slip up to the Bulls. I think they'll beat the handicap.
Stormers v Reds
The Stormers dealt to the Blues last week comprehensively winning while the Reds were hard on defence in beating the Jaguares.
The Stormers have won 3 of the last 4 games at home to the Reds. The last time the Stormers played an Australian side at home was in 2016.
The Reds defence has been their best weapon this year, they've only conceded 31 points in their last 3 games.
Initially I liked the +11.5 in this game, but the Reds were not allowed on their flight to South Africa early in the week due to a health issue. They instead travelled through to London and then down to South Africa, a further 14,000km.
Either the bookies aren't aware of this or they don't see this as an issue. I think the Stormers will win this one, but I'm unsure by how much. I think the Reds will feel the effects of the extra travel and will struggle in the 2nd half. I think the 2nd half line is the bet to go for.
Stormers 2nd Half -63 at 1.90-3
Jaguares v Lions
The Jaguares season continues to be a rollercoaster, losing to the Reds last weekend. While the Lions season continues to look shaky with a close win against the Sunwolves.
The Home team has won every game with these two teams, though the Lions in the past have sent a far weakened side to Argentina. The Jaguares have only won 1 of their last 6 home games, so it's not quite the fortress as some say.
Of the 5 games these two teams have played against each other, the average total score is 62 points per game.
I think the markets about right in this one so won't be having a bet.
RESULTS STAKES ROI Semi Finals -0.14 2 -7% Quarter Finals -0.28 8 -4% Week Nineteen +4.53 5 91% Week Eighteen -6.15 12 -51% Week Seventeen -3.1 8 -39% Week Sixteen -2.3 8 -29% Week Fifteen +1.1 7.5 15% Week Fourteen -0.38 8 -5% Week Thirteen -3.78 11.5 -33% Week Twelve +1.75 8 22% Week Eleven +9.25 11.5 80% Week Ten +5.5 12.5 44% Week Nine +1.3 11 12% Week Eight +5.84 9 65% Week Seven +5.98 19 31% Week Six +2.64 9 29% Week Five -4.7 9 -52% Week Four -4.4 12 -37% Total +12.66 171 7%