SUPER RUGBY WEEK 5
Chiefs v Bulls
The Chiefs had the week off last week while the Bulls lost to the Reds by 6 in Brisbane in a tough fought match. The Chiefs this week have a few positional changes with Damian McKenzie switching from first five to his usual position at fullback.
The Chiefs have beaten the Bulls in 3 of the last 4 games with the other game being a draw; over in South Africa. The Chiefs have a strong record at home against the Bulls not losing to them since 2010. The Chiefs only lost one home game last season losing to the Crusaders by 7.
The last four games the Chiefs have played the Bulls at home have averaged 49 points per game.
I think we'll have a go at the Unders Total in the first game of this round.
Highlanders v Crusaders
The match of the round as far as I'm concerned, the two South Island teams facing off is always a must watch match. The Highlanders saw off the Stormers as expected last week while the Crusaders lost fairly comfortably to the Hurricanes after a disaster start saw the Hurricanes go up 21-0 early on.
The Crusaders injury problems didn't help last week and they're again without a few key names including Richie Mo'unga and Ryan Crotty, the two mainstay players in the Crusaders backline. Meanwhile the Highlanders are at near full strength.
The Crusaders have won the last three matches against the Highlanders, two of those were close fought games while the last game was a 17-0 win.
The last four games between these two sides in Dunedin has averaged 56 points per game. The games played this year with these teams involved average above 60 so we could see a few points in this one, particularly under the roof.
Brumbies v Sharks
The Brumbies look terrible this year, even in their solitary win against the Sunwolves they looked average. They got beat up by the Rebels last week while the Sharks had a good win against the Sunwolves.
The last six games played between the Brumbies and Sharks sees the record at three apiece. The Sharks beat the Brumbies last year 22-27 in Canberra and will be aiming to do the same again this week.
This is the first home game for the Brumbies and I think some home truths would have been delivered to them this week, I think they'll bounce back this round and prove a few doubters wrong that they're not just here to make up the numbers.
Brumbies to Win2 at 2.15+2.3
Stormers v Blues
This should be another cracking game. The Stormers return from their overseas trip with three losses while the Blues would be buoyed from their comeback victory against the Lions last weekend.
The Stormers however are a different beast at home, they've only lost 3 of their last 12 home games, two of those to the Chiefs and one to the Lions. The Stormers have also won their last three home games to the Blues.
I think the Blues are a different beast this year, they should arguably be undefeated this season. I think they'll scrape home in this one.
Blues 1-122 at 3.00-2
Lions v Sunwolves
The best team in South Africa up against the worst team in the competition. These teams have played twice before with the Lions winning both games.
The last game the Lions beat the Sunwolves 94-7. The Lions lost to the Blues last week while the Sunwolves struggled against the Sharks to keep up their losing streak for this season.
I marked this pretty much where the market is and nothing jumps out to me that's worth a bet.
Jaguares v Reds
The Jaguares got their season off the ground last week with a pretty emphatic victory over the Waratahs. The Reds continued their winning form with a hard fought victory over the Bulls.
The Reds now hit the road where they have really struggled in the past winning just 1 of their last 17 appearances away from home, 13 of those 16 defeats were by 13 or more points.
The Jaguares should be full of confidence after last week. These teams have only played once before with the Jaguares winning 22-8 last year.
The Reds aren't scoring enough points this season to win this game. They've won their last two games but have only scored 38 points in the process including just 2 tries. I'm willing to take a stats based selection here and bet on the Jaguares to win by 13 or more points here.
Jaguares 13+2 at 2.50-2
Waratahs v Rebels
As mentioned the Waratahs got stunned by the Jaguares last week while the Rebels continued their impressive season with a good win over the Brumbies in Melbourne.
These two teams are the best in the Australian conference from what I have seen this season so far. The Waratahs have a win, draw and a loss while the Rebels are undefeated.
The Waratahs have a decent record against the Rebels winning 6 of the last 8 games including twice last year by decent margins. The Rebels are a new beast though and with the Waratahs travelling back from Argentina they'll be a little tired going into this one.
I think the Rebels may win this one but not prepared to put anything down on the game.
RESULTS STAKES ROI Semi Finals -0.14 2 -7% Quarter Finals -0.28 8 -4% Week Nineteen +4.53 5 91% Week Eighteen -6.15 12 -51% Week Seventeen -3.1 8 -39% Week Sixteen -2.3 8 -29% Week Fifteen +1.1 7.5 15% Week Fourteen -0.38 8 -5% Week Thirteen -3.78 11.5 -33% Week Twelve +1.75 8 22% Week Eleven +9.25 11.5 80% Week Ten +5.5 12.5 44% Week Nine +1.3 11 12% Week Eight +5.84 9 65% Week Seven +5.98 19 31% Week Six +2.64 9 29% Week Five -4.7 9 -52% Week Four -4.4 12 -37% Total +12.66 171 7%