SUPER RUGBY WEEK 11
Hurricanes v Stormers
Hurricanes are coming off the bye this week and will feel refreshed going into this clash, they've named a similar side to the one that hammered the Brumbies a couple of weeks ago. The Stormers NZ Road trip continues to go bad with a massive loss to the Highlanders last weekend.
Like the Stormers record with the Highlanders, the Stormers have a great record against the Hurricanes too winning 4 of the last 5 games against the Hurricanes.
The Stormers have really struggled the last two weeks and I can't see the competing against the Hurricanes at all. They've conceded 114 points in the last two weeks and scoring only 38 themselves. The Hurricanes have also won the last 10 home games.
The Hurricanes have scored first in 7 out of 8 games this season, of that 6 of those have been a try. I'm keen to have a little bit on the 1st Scoring play to be a Hurricanes Try.
Cheetahs v Highlanders
The Cheetahs season is in turmoil, they've now lost their last 6 games after 2 promising wins at the start of the season and to be honest there is a possibility of them not winning another game all season. The Highlanders are starting to build nicely towards the playoffs, they arguably have the easiest draw for the remainder of the season for the NZ sides too.
The last 3 games between these two sides the Away team has won the fixture, this reads 2 wins for the Highlanders on the road and 1 for the Cheetahs.
The last 5 games between the two sides have averaged 59 points per game, not uncommon at all for the Cheetahs games and I'd suspect the total will start a bit over this. Cheetahs games average 60 points this year, 4th highest behind Sunwolves, Stormers and Hurricanes games.
Rebels v Lions
The Rebels should be very disappointed with their efforts last weekend against the Kings. They looked disinterested and deserved the thrashing that was delivered. The Lions hung on to beat the Force with a bonus point in a tight game; the score blew out a little with the last try to the Lions in injury time.
Lions have won the last three games against the Rebels with an average score of 52 points per game for these matches. The Rebels have been such an hard team to read this year, they beat the Brumbies, drew to the Sharks then lose to the Kings by 40; all in the space of 3 games.
The Lions are winning (6 match winning streak), but arguably not as well as they could. They almost look to be in 2nd gear and waiting for the right moment to get into full playing mode. The Lions currently 2nd on the table have two more games in Australia then the rest of the season back in South Africa, they'll be pushing towards the minor premiership.
Chiefs v Reds
The Reds will be guttered with last week's loss to the Waratahs, they had the game for most of the 80minutes but let it slip towards the end. The Chiefs battled against the Sunwolves and have looked pretty shaky the last few weeks, although winning.
The Reds are currently on a 12 match Away losing streak and I don't see them breaking it this week. The Chiefs have won 9 of the last 10 home games and will feel pretty good about spending their second week in a row at home.
The Chiefs have won the last two games against the Reds with margins of 21 and 45 respectively; both those games being held in Brisbane also. Prior to that the Reds beat the Chiefs 4 straight but that was all before 2014.
The Reds have conceded on average 31 points per game this year, that number getting higher in the last few games.
Waratahs v Blues
The Waratahs scored a much needed win against the Reds last week while the Blues got up against the Brumbies in Canberra, continuing their run of beating every non-NZ team but losing to all NZ teams.
Surprising statistic in this one is that the Home team for this fixture has won each of the last 7 games with no huge blowouts the highest winning margin being 14 points out of those 7 games.
The last four games between these two sides has averaged 47 points per game.
This should be another close game but I think the team the Blues has named can do the job in a tight affair.
Sharks v Force
The Sharks upset the Jaguares last week 33-25 in Argentina, this getting them into playoffs contention. The Force were held out by the Lions last weekend but played pretty well. The Force last three losses have been by 8, 9 and 9 points respectively, all against pretty decent sides in the Lions, Chiefs and Blues.
The Sharks have been the Force in 8 of the 9 games they've played against each other including the last 7 games. Adding to this the Sharks haven't lost a home game for 8 games with their last loss at home being over a year ago; you'd fancy that would continue this weekend.
Force have now lost their last 7 away games and to add to their woes they are the second worst attacking side in terms of points this season with an average of 19.5 points per game.
I think this game should be pretty low scoring, Sharks games this year average only 47.5 points per game while the Force games average 46 points per game.
Bulls v Crusaders
The Bulls enjoyed the week off last week, while the Crusaders won well against the Cheetahs in Bloomfontein.
Similar to the Waratahs and Blues fixture the Home team has won the last 9 fixtures between these two sides. The Crusaders will be without Kieran Reid who broke this thumb and Sam Whitelock who has been suspended for two weeks, both huge losses as they're their two best players.
The last four games between the two sides has averaged 53 points per game, Crusaders games this year average a high 57 points while the Bulls games average a lower 48 points per game.
I think the Bulls can frighten the Crusaders in this one, with two experienced players out of the Crusaders I'd suggest having a small play on the + at the line.
Jaguares v Sunwolves
The Jaguares season keeps getting worse after a more than promising start they have now lost their last four games, since slipping out of the playoffs race. The Sunwolves had one of their best performances last week only losing to the Chiefs by 7 points.
These teams have played once before with the Sunwolves winning 36-28. The Sunwolves have the same record as the Reds with a 12 point Away losing streak.
With the high line we must find some value and the best bet I could find was the 1st Scoring play being a Jaguares Try, they'll be looking for the Bonus point in this one to get their playoff hopes back on track.
RESULTS STAKES ROI Week Thirteen +3.81 13.5 28% Week Twelve +2.71 17.5 15% Week Eleven -2.9 11 -26% Week Ten -0.35 14 -3% Week Nine -5.52 13 -42% Week Eight +6.77 12 56% Week Seven +7.8 9 87% Week Six +15.46 13 119% Week Five +1.61 10 16% Week Four -2.24 8 -28% Week Three -10 10 -100% Week Two +4.9 8 61% Week One -4.15 13.5 -31% Total +17.9 152.5 12%