SUPER RUGBY WEEK 4
Crusaders v Blues
Three weeks in a row for the Crusaders who have won it tough. Meanwhile the Blues were pretty average in an under strength Highlanders side in wet conditions.
These two teams are former foes and the Crusaders have had the wood on the Blues in the last 5 occasions winning all these games.
I haven't particularly been overly impressed with the Crusaders this season, but winning form is winning form. The Blues have had the chance to gain on their first round victory but have struggled in the past two games. They'll be desperate to win this to keep their season alive.
I marked this game Crusaders -5.5 and this is pretty much what the market is, so I don't see any value in any line betting. I do however think there is some value in the points betting. These two teams have averaged 42 points between them in the last 5 games and the market has gone up in the low 50s. Pick - 3 Units Under (best available friday)
Rebels v Chiefs
The Rebels desperately needed the week off last week after two thrashings at the hands of two NZ teams. It doesn't get much easier however, with Outright favourites the Chiefs coming to Melbourne to potentially hand the struggling Rebels another lesson.
The Chiefs have had decent success over the Rebels in the past winning 4 of the last 5 games. The Rebels only win was in 2015 scoring all 16 of their points in the first half and holding on just to win by a sole point.
I marked this game Rebels +15.5, the market is a couple of points higher. I'm not too prepared to put any money on the line in this game and backing the Rebels plus would be a sweat up throughout the game. No Pick.
Bulls v Sunwolves
The Bulls had a week off last week and they needed it after struggling in their first two games against the Stormers and Cheetahs. Meanwhile the Sunwolves did quite well against the Cheetahs only losing by 7 points where the line was in the low 30s.
These two teams played twice last year, the Bulls winning both by 3 and 47 points respectively. The Sunwolves have been there or thereabouts in their past two games and the more they play together I think the more they'll do well.
I marked this Bulls -27.5 and if the Bulls are planning to rest any players I think the + bet on the line is the way to go.
Hurricanes v Highlanders
The Hurricanes were terrible in last weeks defeat to the Chiefs, poor handling and discipline letting them down. Meanwhile the Highlanders somewhat upset the Blues with a injury depleted side.
They go into this week with more injuries with Highlanders first five Lima Sopoaga out with an injury. They're dropping like flies in the south and those turning up to the game should bring their boots along just in case.
These are always good clashes between the two sides with both teams having wins over the other in the last few games. The last three games in particular have been rather low scoring with an average of 38 points. No Pick.
Waratahs v Brumbies
This will sort out favouritism for the Australian Conference going into next week. The Waratahs travel back from a tough trip to South Africa losing both games by considerable margins. Meanwhile the Brumbies were lucky to beat the Force as much as they did and were pretty average to watch.
The Brumbies have beaten the Waratahs in their last two outings, prior to this the Waratahs won the previous four. Both teams are desperate to get their season started properly.
I have my doubts about the Brumbies this year and I think this is the perfect game for the Waratahs to progress further and head up the Australian Conference. I think the Waratahs will win this, but not by much.
Lions v Reds
After resting a few players to Argentina the Lions were dealt to losing by 12 against the Jaguares. The Reds were very unlucky, only to lose in the dying seconds to the Crusaders after a strong start.
These two teams have shared a 3-3 win record against each other in the past 6 games. The Lions however winning the last two but only by small margins.
Despite dealing to the Waratahs two weeks ago the Lions have been somewhat underwhelming this year. The Reds have been a mixed bag, one win and two close losses. I think its best to stay clear of this game. No Pick.
Sharks v Southern Kings
The Sharks did well last week in belting the Waratahs. Meanwhile the Kings held in for most of the game against the Stormers but a few late tries really stretched the margin out.
The Sharks have beaten the Kings in all four games they've played, winning by an average margin of 35 points. Last year alone they beat them by 35 and 53 points respectively.
The Sharks should win this game easily, whether they cover or not is up to debate. No Pick.
Jaguares v Cheetahs
The Jaguares won last week and won well, the Cheetahs struggled to get any momentum but beat the Sunwolves.
These two teams played once last year with the Jaguares winning by 1 point in a close affair in South Africa. Both sides have had mixed seasons both winning 2 games and losing 1.
Not much interest for me in the betting in this game and am happy to watch the games instead. No Pick.
RESULTS STAKES ROI Week Thirteen +3.81 13.5 28% Week Twelve +2.71 17.5 15% Week Eleven -2.9 11 -26% Week Ten -0.35 14 -3% Week Nine -5.52 13 -42% Week Eight +6.77 12 56% Week Seven +7.8 9 87% Week Six +15.46 13 119% Week Five +1.61 10 16% Week Four -2.24 8 -28% Week Three -10 10 -100% Week Two +4.9 8 61% Week One -4.15 13.5 -31% Total +17.9 152.5 12%