COURTESYFOOTBALL FORM LABS
Brighton v Arsenal - Sunday 13:30, Sky Sports
Brighton have found some form at the right time with nine goals and eight points form their last four outings to give them a small bit of breathing space from the drop zone. They have the best home record of any side in the bottom-half of the table where they’ve gone W5-D6-L3 this term. Those three defeats did come against the only Big Six clubs to visit the Falmers but Arsenal arguably don’t deserve to be labelled as one of those sides on their performances this season as they find themselves detached from Chelsea in 5th and in turmoil after their thumping at the hands of City.
The Gunners have been particularly poor on the road as they’ve won just three of 14 trips and excluding those top five teams, three clubs have a better away record than them while Newcastle and Bournemouth are their equal. Wenger’s men have drawn at basement-dwellers West Brom and lost at Bournemouth, Swansea and Spurs in their last four and against a Seagulls side with their tails up we must take the visitors on- we're siding with the hosts +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.05.
Glenn Murray brought his tally for the season to 10 goals in Brighton's last outing hosting Swansea, leaving him with four goals in as many games, as well as four in his last four at home. He's netted twice as many goals as Brighton's next top scorer, and against Arsenal should relish the chance to make this as physical a contest as possible- he's 3.3 to find the net.
Man City v Chelsea- Sunday 16:00, Sky Sports
Defeat at Old Trafford saw Chelsea slip out of the top-four and that gap could widen as they now visit the dominant, blue half of Manchester. Man City have turned it on against their Big Six rivals this season, especially at home where they’ve won by an aggregate score of 12-2 in three games so far. Even in the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge in September they were far more convincing victors than the 1-0 scoreline suggested as they dominated with 17 shots to Chelsea’s four.
The Blues have gone W2-D3-L2 against their main rival this season but both teams have scored in their four road games and with Hazard and the in-form Willian a constant threat we think they have what it takes to get on the scoresheet. Indeed, the Citizens have been exemplary at the Etihad so far, but they’ve kept just two clean sheets in their last nine there. Moreover, the only two occasions they’ve shut out a Big Six side in eight attempts at home under Guardiola was when Liverpool went down to 10-men and a goalless draw in a Mourinho special last term. With that in mind, we're backing a City win and both teams to score at 3.25.
Sergio Aguero is in irresistible form for the Citizens, particularly at the Etihad, where he has 11 in his last five appearances. He’s scored in two of the three visits from top-six sides to date and has an excellent record against Chelsea, netting five times in his last four appearances against the Blues. He looks like great value to find the net at odds-against,
Weekend Team News Analysis
N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.
Troyes v PSG
Neymar (LW), Paris St Germain
Neymar has averaged a goal a game in his 29 appearances across all competitions since joining PSG this summer. His side have won just five of the seven Ligue 1 games he’s missed compared with 18 of 20 with him, and they’ve netted more than a goal extra per game when he’s started. The Parisians have scored fewer than three goals in 57% of their matches without him, losing their last such game, and will be up against a Troyes side who have kept a clean sheet in six of their last eight games at the Stade de I’Aube. We're backing Under 2.5 PSG Goals.
Leganes v Malaga
Adrain Gonzalez (CM), Malaga
Malaga were drawing in their last game before Adrian Gonzalez was forced off through injury which saw them go on to lose the game 2-1. Without the midfielder starting this season they’ve lost all their five games compared to losing just 65% with him. Added to that, Malaga scored just once in those five defeats he missed, while the win to nil is Leganes’ most popular method of victory as it’s accounted for 12 of their last 14 victories and is a 3.1 shot here.
C Palace v Man Utd
Wilfred Zaha (CF), Crystal Palace
Since the start of last season Wilfred Zaha has missed 12 league games, and while they managed a point hosting Bournemouth and a win over Sunderland at the start of last term, they’ve lost each of the last 10 the Ivorian has missed. Their opponents won to nilin nine of these, including a 4-0 loss to United themselves earlier this season, and the Red Devils should have little trouble at the back having conceded just the single goal in their last six when excluding results against the top six. Zaha’s only been outscored in the league by Luka Milivojevic, who takes the penalties (most of which have been won by Zaha), and with Benteke still stuck on two goals for the season his absence should prove decisive. We'll take the Utd win to nil at 2.5.
Putting these three in a treble gives you an 11/1 shot that you can back here
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