COURTESYFOOTBALL FORM LABS
PSG v Lyon - Sunday 20:00, BT Sport Europe
PSG’s pursuit of Monaco for the Ligue 1 title continued last week with a 2-1 win at bottom of the table Lorient, but that hardly removes the scars of what happened against Barcelona. They’re unbeaten in 11 in the league but the two draws in that time have been costly and they can hardly afford any more dropped points given Monaco vastly superior goal difference and three point advantage at the top. With Lyon hitting their stride in recent weeks this looks to be the champions’ hardest remaining fixture.
PSG have lost only one home match since the start of last season but their dominance has been undoubtedly challenged this term and the other three current top-five sides to visit the Parc des Princes have all left with a point. Lyon won 3-1 at Monaco in December but that has been far and away their highlight on the road this season as most of their best results have come at home. They’ve lost six of 13 away games and against the current top eight they’ve gone a poor W1-D2-L3.
PSG won 2-1 when these teams met earlier in the campaign and won this fixture 5-1 last season. However, Lyon have shown what they’re capable of since the turn of the year as they’ve put at least four past Toulouse, Metz, Dijon and Nancy during their past six games. Hardly elite opposition but with no pressure as they are looking destined to finish fourth it is a warning to PSG of what they can do. That is enough to put us off PSG at 1.50 given the scars they are carrying from the Nou Camp and the draw looks better value at 4.95.
The scoring power of both sides, however, leads us towards Over 3.5 Goals at 2.10. Both teams have scored in all five meetings between these sides since the start of 2014/15 and there have been at least four goals in 14 of PSG’s last 29 home games. Their matches this season have been lower scoring but we don’t expect Lyon to just sit back and when PSG have conceded at home nine of their last 14 matches have had at least four goals (11/14 had +2.5). With Memphis Depay starting to show the sort of form that led Man Utd to spend big on him and Alexandre Lacazette in excellent form Lyon have several quality attackers and they’ve only failed to score once in their last 19 matches, with eight of their last 14 having at least four goals.
This is a battle of the league’s two leading strikers. Lacazette has 22 in 23 Ligue 1 appearances this season (a goal every 87 minutes) including finding the net in nine of his last 11 matches. However, he’s only once scored against PSG having played them 11 times before. Cavani, meanwhile, has 27 in 27 and 38 in 38 across all competitions this season. He’s struck in seven of his last eight home games and is just 1.57 to find the net again.
Weekend Team News Analysis
Everton v Hull
Oumar Niasse (FW), Hull
Niasse has appeared in all eight of Hull’s matches since joining on loan from Everton and despite making just three starts he’s already the Tigers’ joint top scorer this season with three goals (all of which have come off the bench). Given they’ve scored just twice in their last 10 away games regardless they look up against it here.
Everton are in excellent form at home having won their last five on their own turf whilst keeping four clean sheets and scoring 18 goals in the process. They’re W7-D2-L0 when hosting bottom-five sides since the start of last season, with six of these seven victories by more than one goal, whilst they also led at the break in six of these wins. We’re backing Everton to cover the -1 handicap at 2.45
Spurs v Southampton
Harry Kane (FW), Spurs
Kane has missed just five games since the start of last season and four of those finished with fewer than three goals. That includes three consecutive draws against Leicester, Bournemouth and West Brom earlier in the campaign.
Southampton are one of only three sides to win at the Lane since the start of last season and with no Kane for the hosts, this looks an excellent opportunity to take Pochettino’s men on. The Saints have netted eight in their last two and have won half of their last six on the road. We’re backing them on the Double Chance at 2.25
Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayern
Arturo Vidal (CM), Bayern
Vidal has played 34 of 58 Bayern matches since the start of last season and while there has been no difference in their results with or without him there has been a decrease in goals when he’s been missing. They’ve won by at least two clear goals in 68% of matches with him and at least three clear in 41% but those figures drop to 42% and 12% in his absence as they’ve scored 24% fewer goals per game.
For all their struggles this term, Gladbach have lost only three of their 12 home games and just four of their last 27 at Borussia-Park. Within that run there was a 3-1 win over Bayern themselves last term and they’ve in fact lost only one of their five meetings with the Bavarians since 2014/15, so with Gladbach’s improved form in recent weeks, we’re siding with them on the Double Chance at 3.1
After our 30/1 treble last week It's 14/1 that these all come in!
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