Confident Raiders value at home


Broncos v Tigers

The Broncos have lost six players to origin for this clash but it could have been worse if not for Queensland putting their foot down on disciplinary reasons with Hunt and Milford both almost certain Maroon starters otherwise. The Maroons loss is the Broncos gain though and they’ve managed to name a very handy side, despite the omission of Oates, Parker, Boyd, McGuire, Gillett and Thaiday.

One of the many strengths of Wayne Bennett as a coach is his ability to develop a pool of talent that’s ever ready to step into the fold and despite not being household names it’s almost a given that the players called in for this clash will hit the ground running – as Bennett will have been planning for the origin disruption weeks, if not months out. With this in mind I expect the Broncos to comfortably deal with a Tigers side that is badly missing Tedesco at the back and whose halves, Moses and Brooks, are both playing without any real confidence.

The Broncos ring-ins will be out to impress and with their halves intact the Broncos offence will cause all sorts of issues for the thin Tigers defensive line – take Broncos to win this easily and cover the line. Pick – 3 units on Broncos -12.0 point start

OTP Recommendation

Broncos -12.03 at 1.92Bookie Image 1-3

otp odds

Dragons v Cowboys

The Cowboys are arguably the hardest hit by origin out of all the teams lining up this weekend with five absolutely key personnel out in Thurston, Morgan, Tamou, O’Neill and Scott; the Dragons meanwhile are missing two in Dugan and Frizell. Taking the two starting halves out of any side is a big deal but when you take Morgan and particularly Thurston out of the fold it leaves ones offence seriously depleted; taking Scott and Tamou out of the forwards also leaves them without two of their main metre-eaters so it’s fair to say the Dragons won’t get a better chance in a long time to clock up a win against the defending champs.

The Dragons finally clicked as an offensive unit last game out in clocking up 24 points against the Rabbitohs but couldn’t stem the flow at the other end in giving up 34, still if they can carry some confidence on attack into this game then they’ll give themselves every chance of a decent win as I don’t see a lot of points in this depleted Cowboys side.

I’m liking the Dragons to cover the narrow line here at home; there’s absolutely no excuses given the desperate state of their season why they wouldn’t be up for this - they have the weight of experience and have not had to contend with anywhere near the disruption that their opposition has. Pick – 4 units on Dragons -2.5 or better point start

OTP Recommendation

Dragons -2.04 at 1.92Bookie Image 2+3.68

otp odds

Raiders v Bulldogs

The Raiders forward pack showed just how dominant they can be in steamrolling the Warriors last week and they’re relatively unaffected by origin here with just Papalii out but that’s well and truly off-set with the return of Soliola and Fensom. Whilst the Bulldogs themselves are not too badly affected by origin, missing two players in Jackson and Klemmer, they’re still worse off than the Raiders.

Even though they finally managed to string together two wins in a row the jury is still out regards the Bulldogs consistency, the Raiders on the other hand have been very consistent with their effort levels being right up there week in and week out.

It’s often the Bulldogs forward pack that’s been talked up before games but not in this case as the Raiders pack has it over them for size and power which I’m confident will again be the decisive factor here. Sezer and Austin have been brilliant in the halves for the Raiders and they have one of the more underrated backlines in the competition outside of them that are likely to trouble the Bulldogs defence.

The trip to Canberra is never easy and with the confidence the Raiders are playing with I’m more than happy to back the home side to cover the narrow line. Pick – 4 units on Raiders -3.5 units

OTP Recommendation

Raiders -3.54 at 1.92Bookie Image 3+3.68

otp odds

    Grand Final -4 4 100% N/A
    Week Three Finals +1 5 20% N/A
    Week Two Finals +8.2 6 137% N/A
    Week One Finals -6.21 12 -52% N/A
    Round Twenty-Six +6.68 10 67% N/A
    Round Twenty-Five -4.32 12 -36% N/A
    Round Twenty-Four +7.14 14 51% N/A
    Round Twenty-Three +3.89 17 23% N/A
    Round Twenty-Two -5.36 13 -41% N/A
    Round Twenty-One -7.24 13 -56% N/A
    Round Twenty -11.24 17 -66% N/A
    Round Nineteen +7.96 11 72% N/A
    Round Eighteen -2.6 8 -33% N/A
    Round Seventeen -1.84 16 -12% N/A
    Round Sixteen -6.4 14 -46% N/A
    Round Fifteen -4.13 12 -34% N/A
    Round Fourteen +1.5 13 12% N/A
    Round Thirteen -2.35 12 -20% N/A
    Round Twelve +4.36 11 40% N/A
    Round Eleven -1.45 10 -15% N/A
    Round Ten -0.1 9.5 -1% N/A
    Round Nine -2.12 17 -12% N/A
    Round Eight -1.41 12 -12% N/A
    Round Seven +1.52 11 14% N/A
    Round Six  +0.18 12 2% N/A
    Round Five +1.49 13 11% N/A
    Round Four +0.61 11 6% N/A
    Round Three +9.89 11 90% N/A
    Round Two +5.33 10 53% N/A
    Round One +1.58 8 20% N/A
    Total +0.56 342.5 0% 0%

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