GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 11TH OCTOBER
There is always something happening in the AFL, and trade week has seen some moves in next year's flag market. The biggest of those has been the West Coast, who were $11 after their Grand Final win, but they are now the best-backed side, and equal second favourites at $8.00 after Andrew Gaff committed to stay with the Club. We know what they did during the finals without Gaff, so they will be hard to beat again. North Melbourne have moved from $51 in to $26 as they continue to jostle to get some name players to their club. Carlton have had support at big odds ($251-$201) as they appear to be on the right side of some trades. Now that it is confirmed Dylan Shiel has settled on Essendon as his destination, the Bombers are now $11 after being $13 beforehand.
The 2018/19 season gets under way today (Thursday), and it is shaping as one of the best seasons ever. The signing of Andrew Bogut by the Sydney Kings was a terrific marketing coup. The NBL Preseason Blitz was a big winner as were the matches against the NBA sides last week.
There have been some decent moves in title betting on the back of all the events of the last few weeks. The Kings are now in to $2.50 ahead of Melbourne at $3.25, with Perth out slightly to $6.50. The Adelaide 36'ers have been a serious move in from $13 to $9.00, and they were the winners (and undefeated) of the Blitz weekend. The 36'ers will be at home tonight, hosting Perth, and there has been some serious money for the home side. This market went up several weeks ago and it was $1.90 apiece, but Adelaide are now in to $1.65 with Perth at $2.25.
Prior to that New Zealand will be at home to Brisbane in the season opener, and while the Bullets are expected to be a much slicker outfit this season, the money is again with the home side. After opening at $1.70, the Breakers are now in to $1.65 with the Bullets at 3.10, so New Zealand have certainly been a solid go.
There is also a market for the MVP for the season and Jerome Randal from the Kings heads the way there at $4.00.
Tip: Cairns to beat Brisbane ($2.15)
The test between New Zealand and Australia will be played at Mt Smart on Saturday night, and while the Kangaroos have won the last five matches between the two sides, there is solid support for the Kiwi's to win. Since the year 2010, there have been 19 matches played between Australia and New Zealand and the results are heavily slanted the way of the Aussies, 15-4. The Kangaroos have been forced to make some changes but it is still a terrific side on paper, however the New Zealand backline is also capable of scoring plenty of points, but their problem might be the big Australian forward pack. Australia are $1.38 to win with New Zealand at $3.10, and as mentioned there has been money for the outsiders, and even more so for them with 8.5 points start which is in to $1.80 from $1.90.
Tip: Australia -8.5 against NZ ($2.00)
UBET NFL fans only want three sides to win the Superbowl with five rounds behind us. The LA Rams were the best supported pre-season side at $17 and are clear $4.00 favourites now as they sit undefeated from five matches, and money continues to roll in for them. Kansas City are the other undefeated side, they also have played five matches, and are on the second line at $6.00 after being $34 pre-season. New Orleans thumped Washington on Tuesday morning (Australian time), and while they are fourth elect at $10, they have met with good support over the past two weeks.
A very good field has been assembled for the British Masters this week with Justin Rose the UBET favourite at $8.00. Francesco Molinari has been $11 in to $9.00 and Tommy Fleetwood is next at $11. That trio have been clearly best-backed. Lucas Bjerregaard won the Alfred Dunhill on the European Tour last week and is $29 while last year's winner, Paul Dunne, is well down the list at $101. Lucas Herbert is again the shortest of the Australians at $51.
The US PGA Tour event for the week will be the CIMB Classic, a co-sanctioned event with the Asian Tour. This event will be played in Kuala Lumpur and has also drawn together a good field. Justin Thomas was clear favourite at $6.00, and apart from being one of the form players of 2018, he is a two-time winner here in 2015 and 2016. Ryan Moore has similar form in KL with wins in 2013 and 2014, and is second favourite at $13. Moore also comes into this event in form as he was beaten in a three-way play-off by Kevin Tway in last week's Safeway Open. Marc Leishman is shortest of the Aussies at $21 but there has been good backing for Cameron Smith at $34.
Tip: British Masters - Francesco Molinari ($9.00)
The win by Car 888 at Bathurst on Sunday was a very popular win, both by car racing enthusiasts as well as UBET customers. The combo of Craig Lowndes and Steve Richards had been the best-backed car with UBET at $5.50 from the moment betting opened, and that continued right up until the start of the race on Sunday even though they were a ways back from the front of the grid (and out to $8.00). However as we have seen so often in the past, grid positions can mean nothing at all as fastest qualifier Dave Reynolds relinquished a lead he had had for most of the race when he began to cramp in his legs, thus allowing Lowndes to glide through and from there on in the race was his.
So now we look ahead to the Gold Coast 600, the last of the team events for the season, which will be run on Sunday week. Racing on the Gold Coast is very different to either Sandown or Bathurst as it is a tight street course, and a huge advantage to qualify at the front of the grid. The opening market is aimed that way with Car 97 (Van Gisbergen/Bamber) and Car 1 (Whincup/Dumbrell) the opening favourites at $3.50, ahead of Car 17 (McLaughlin/Premat) at $5.50, Car 9 (Reynolds/Youlden) at $8.00 and then Car 888 at $11.
Angle Park will race on Friday night this week with the running of the Group 1 UBET Adelaide Cup. The winner will receive a hefty $75,000 and the pre-race favourite is local star Fabwik, currently at $2.30. Fabwik displayed all of her customary usual pace in a new PB of 29.48 in her heat which was clearly the best of the night. She has several sub 29.60 wins at Angle Park, and with the advantage of the red box, and scintillating early pace, Fabwik really does look the winner. If Fabwik doesn't lead then the race opens right up with several other hopes including Honcho Monelli ($5.00) and Spring Bridge ($7.00) both who are strong. Victorian Real Simple ($4.20) from the powerful Thompson kennel has won the Adelaide Cup on three previous occasions.
Tip: Adelaide Cup - Fabwik ($2.40)
The Interdominion is closing in on us, and group racing will feature prominently in Australia and New Zealand before the Interdoms are run in December.
The Victoria Cup will be run this Saturday night at Melton, and Chicago Bull is currently the $2.20 favourite. The trainer/driver combo of Gary Hall Snr and Jnr believe Chicago Bull is the best horse in Australia and for the first time, those on the east coast will get to see the diminutive star in action. The Halls have every right to make their claim with Chicago Bull as he has won an amazing 37 races since entering their stable having only won two races previously. From gate 3 he will have plenty of time to work out how to attack the race. There is potential pace in barrier 2 from Tiger Tara ($5.00) however he hasn't been at his best this campaign. If there is to be an upset it could be $21 chance Mach Doro drawn in gate 5. Mach Doro possesses electric early speed, but in all likelihood champion reinsman Luke McCarthy will have the option to take a sit if need be.
Tip: Victoria Cup - Mach Doro each way ($10)
THOROUGHBRED RACING (by Nicole Thomas)
Make sure you get your bets on early, charge your devices, ensure the kids are entertained and be prepared for what is arguably the best race day of the year! It's a punters dream, with the highly-anticipated TAB Everest coinciding with Caulfield Guineas day.
The weight-for-age sprinting spectacular has already delivered what we have all been hoping for, a wonderfully competitive affair with the best-of-the-best all desperately trying to reach dizzy heights and claim the world's richest turf race.
The Everest market is congested at the top with last year's winner Redzel narrowly the favourite at $6.50 (in from $7.00). He travelled up for the Queensland carnival this year and many fear the superstar may not be going quite as well as he was this time last year but you'd be brave to question the Snowden camp. Shoals has been supported from $7.50 in to $7.00 and connections will be hoping the 4yo mare can bring the form that won her the UBET Classic and the Surround Stakes. There are two runners at $7.50, firstly the 1200m-specialist Vega Magic and he's been popular with punters after toughing out a valiant fourth in the group 1 Memsie Stakes. The other runner at the $7.50 quote is Trapeze Artist. His last group 1 victory was in the All Aged Stakes and he should be ready to fire third-up. Then we have the intriguing overseas runner in US Navy Flag, solid at $8.50. The Aidan O'Brien-trained galloper has been contesting strong form races overseas and has the perfect draw to sit nicely up on the pace. Coolmore had him locked into this slot early and his win in the group 1 July Cup was superb over the 1200m last start. The Goodwood (and Stradbroke) winner Santa Ana Lane is priced at $9.00 and will no doubt get back in the run but look for him charging late. The TAB's hopeful In Her Time is priced at $12 and her first-up run was good and she should be improving here. Brave Smash ($14) has been ultra-consistent this prep and looks ready to step up to 1200m. Viddora ($17) received a slot after victory in the Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley a fortnight ago and Graff ($19) is the only 3yo to contest the race. After an elevated temperature, Home Of The Brave's slot went to the other Godolphin runner, Osborne Bulls and is currently a $17 chance.
Now Caulfield is by no means playing second fiddle to Randwick on Saturday with a spectacular 10-race program! There are four prestigious group 1 races, these are the Caulfield Guineas, Thousand Guineas, Toorak Handicap and the Caulfield Stakes.
The Caulfield Guineas feature over the mile is where we get to see the best of the 3YO's. The Golden Rose winner The Autumn Sun ($1.90) is the odds-on favourite and clearly dominates the market. The Guineas Prelude is usually a great guide to form and Native Soldier ($6.50) won that race so may offer a significant challenge to the short-priced favourite. Other runners in the market include Stutt Stakes winner Leonardo Da Hinchi ($9.00) and Flight Stakes champ Oohood ($10).
The 3YO fillies go around in the Thousand Guineas and Smart Melody is the one they all have to beat ($2.60) having won all five of her race starts. Thrillster ($7.00-$6.00) was beaten by Smart Melody in the Thousand Guineas Prelude but covered plenty of ground and if that run wasn't a gut-buster she has to be a great chance. Fiesta is $10 in the market and so is Amphitrite, who won the Edward Manifold (good lead-up race).
The Toorak Handicap is over the mile and traditionally the best form-race is the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. Shillelagh ran fourth in the Epsom and is favourite now after getting heavily-backed and shortening from $7.00 in to $5.00. Next we have Hartnell at $6.50 and Land Of Plenty at $6.00. Hartnell surprised with a win in the Epsom and Land Of Plenty had a tough run in the Sir Rupert Clarke but still finished third. Noire ($11) beat Youngstar home in the Shannon Stakes and Jungle Cat ($10) won the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes but stepping up to the mile is a valid concern.
We have a serious field ready to contest the 2000m Caulfield Stakes. D'Argento is favourite ($4.40-$4.20) after just getting pipped in the Epsom and Unforgotten ($5.00-$4.80) ran third behind D'Argento but looked strong through the line. There's a big watch on the overseas raider Benbatl ($6.00-$5.50) who comes in with excellent form credentials. Memsie Stakes winner Humidor is currently a $7.50 chance with Night's Watch at $9.00 and having to lug an extra 4kg on his last start effort. Blair House ($11) arguably should have won the Underwood Stakes and is a super chance if he runs out a strong 2000m. The value runner in the race might be The Cliffsofmoher who beat home Benbatl in the Epsom Derby in June last year and is currently double the odds of Benbatl at $12.
Tip: The Cliffsofmoher to win the Caulfield Stakes SR8 ($12)