GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 13TH SEPTEMBER
Of the eight NRL and AFL matches last weekend, there was one favourite that was expected to win, the Brisbane Broncos! Oddly, they were the only favourite to lose, with all other seven winning (GWS started favourite against the Swans). The shock loss by Brisbane at the hands of the Dragons saw a major change to premiership betting, and it was a strange one. Souths were beaten by Melbourne on Friday night which now means that they have to play an extra match, but this week they go in as hot $1.23 favourite's to beat an injury riddled St George-Illawarra, and assuming they win that, they then play the Roosters in a preliminary final and the Roosters will be without Latrell Mitchell. It is quite conceivable that Souths might even be favourite in that match now. The Roosters still head the premiership market at $3.00 ahead of Melbourne at $3.10, then Souths at $4.25. We have just started to see some bigger bets come in for Melbourne, today we took a bet for $4,600 and another for $2,000 at the $3.10 quote.
The Dragons beat Souths 16-12 in round 5 this year, but that was during the time they were flying. In the return bout, Souths won 24-10 in round 10. Souths have been the big money side this week, with that line already moving from -10.5 to -13.5. The Cronulla v Penrith match is intriguing, Cronulla come in as one of the form sides at the back end of the season, but will be without Wade Graham for the rest of the finals series. Cronulla won both matches against Penrith during the season, have won five straight and eight of their last nine against the Panthers. That says punters should be all over them at $1.67, but that is not the case. The loss of Wade Graham is huge, and the early betting is favouring Penrith 3:1.
Tip: Penrith to beat the Sharks ($2.25)
Richmond and the West Coast have made their way through to next week's preliminary finals, and both have firmed up in premiership betting. Richmond are $1.90 to win the flag this week, we continue to see a constant stream of bets roll in for them, and same for premiership doubles coupled up with the three main hopes in the NRL. The West Coast moved in to $5.00 after they scored a gutsy win over Collingwood, and that has drawn one good bet this week of $2,500. While the theory is that the Eagles don't play well interstate, or at the MCG, they have won both matches there this season, but of course they have to win next week first.
Back in round 4 Hawthorn thrashed Melbourne 115-48, and while the Hawks are $2.75 outsiders against the Demons on Friday night, they have their share of support. Hawthorn got found out against Richmond, but are a proven finals side while Melbourne aren't...yet. In nearly all finals we see more bets for the outsiders, and that is the case here as well. A big stat in favour of Hawthorn is they have won 15 of their last 16 against Melbourne, but this is a much better Demons outfit than in any of those matches from years gone by.
The GWS Giants bounced back to their best when they thrashed Sydney last week, and Collingwood return from a heart breaking loss to the West Coast. The travel factor from the west is one thing, but the Giants also defeated Collingwood at the MCG in round 2 before they lost all form, and a number of players to injury. That win at the MCG was only the second from 12 appearances there for the Giants, but they come into this week with momentum, and punters like them. The opening $2.60 for the Giants didn't last long nor did the $2.50, and they are now solid at $2.40 with Collingwood at $1.58. Collingwood have had a good year when favourites, they have won 13 of 14 when going in as public elects, but based on last week the Giants will really test them this week.
There hasn't been a lot of change to Brownlow Medal betting this week where Tom Mitchell is still the short favourite, but has eased from $1.55 to $1.60. Max Gawn continues to be the popular one bet numbers wise and is $8.00 in to $7.50. He is another who attracted even more money after last week's win by Melbourne even though finals don't play a part in Brownlow voting!
Tip: GWS to beat Collingwood ($2.40)
The Wallabies were big drifters before they went on to beat South Africa last week. The Wallabies went from $1.47 out to $1.80 at kick-off after losing David Pocock and Israel Folau, so to get the win was a big plus. We are still not sure whether either (or both) of those will return this week, but Australia are still red hot $1.27 pops to beat Argentina on the Gold Coast. The Pumas weren't too bad against New Zealand last week going down by 22 points, and they did cover the line of 27 points. They will be getting 10.5 start against the Wallabies, but we haven't seen any takers there as yet.
Tip: Argentina +10.5 against Australia ($1.90)
The Fedex Cup playoffs have a break this week but the top 30 players will be back next week to contest the Tour Championship, the final of the series. Three Australians made it through to next week, Jason Day ($19), Cameron Smith ($34) and Marc Leishman ($41). Dustin Johnson has been the favourite for each tournament this series but has been replaced next week by the new world number one, Justin Rose. The Englishman is $8.00, just ahead of Johnson at $9.00, and then follows Rory McIlroy at $10.00.
Tiger Woods is running back into form and he is in to $1.55 (from $1.65) to beat Phil Mickelson ($2.40) in the Showdown at Shadow Creek which will be played late November. Although both are clearly past their best, it will still generate huge media and betting interest.
The European Tour event this week will be the KLM Open in The Netherlands. Eddie Pepperell is our $17 favourite in a wide-open affair, with Lee Westwood next in line at $19. There are several Aussies in the field and Lucas Herbert is the shortest of those at $67, with defending champ Romain Wattel on the same line at $67.
Tip: KLM Open - Andy Sullivan ($31)
As we have mentioned over the past few years the Singapore F1 Grand Prix is one of the most popular with UBET motor racing fans, and the attraction has been the racing under lights. It is a very tight street circuit so it's imperative to get a good spot on the starting grid and looking at the market for Sunday's race shows you the quicker cars are at the head of betting. Sebastian Vettel heads the market at $2.10 ahead of Max Verstappen ($4.50), with Lewis Hamilton the big shortener ($5.50 in to $4.50) and Dan Ricciardo also at $5.50. Hamilton won here last year as well as in 2009 and 2014, but Vettel is a four-time winner in Singapore and has been shooting the lights out in qualifying recently. Kimi Raikkonnen turned the clock back by qualifying fastest in Italy a fortnight before finishing second to Hamilton. The Finn is in the market this week at $8.50.
Tip: Vettel to win the Singapore Grand Prix ($2.10)
The Supercars Enduro Cup season begins on Sunday at Sandown. For those who may be unaware of what that is, racing at the next three meetings, Sandown, Bathurst and the Gold Coast, is a 'teams' event so each car has two drivers. Betting is done by car numbers on the off chance that one or both of the drivers may change, whatever the reason. Perennial favourites, Whincup/Dumbrell (Car 1), are $4.50 but share that spot with McLaughlin/Premat (Car 17) and Van Gisbergen/Bamber (Car 97). There has been a much wider spread of money this year than we have seen in the past. Whincup and Dumbrell have been together for several years now, and while they did win the Sandown 500 in 2014, they have finished well down the track in the three races since. This will be the last time Craig Lowndes races at Sandown and there is plenty of sentimental money going on Car 888, the Car Lowndes will be in with Steve Richards.
There will be live betting throughout the race on Sunday.
Tip: Car 17 McLaughlin/Premat ($4.50)
Including this week, there are only four meetings to go this season for the Superbikes, and Jonathan Rea will be clear favourite to win the races this weekend in Portugal. Rea already has the title firmly in his keeping, but he hasn't lost any of his hunger for wins as evidenced by his two victories in Misano at the last meeting back in July. He also has form in Portugal as he won both races held last year, so he will be a very warm favourite when markets go up on Friday.
There was plenty of controversy at this year's US Open, and that has all been well documented, but now we look forward to the next Major, the Australian Open in January. Both markets are open, with Novak Djokovic $2.50 to win ahead of Roger Federer ($4.25) and Rafael Nadal ($6.50). Nick Kyrgios is sixth pick at $19, while John Millman is a big price at $251.
Serena Williams' meltdown in New York hasn't put many betting fans off as she is the best-backed so far at $4.50 to win the Australian Open, with only a couple of others backed to beat her at this stage. One of those is Simona Halep at $9.00 and the other is Sloane Stephens ($16), but of course January is some time away. Naomi Osaka is currently a $17 pop and Ash Barty is $29.
The JLT Cup, the Australian domestic 50 over competition, gets under way this week with the first match to be played in Townsville on Sunday. The Victorian Bushrangers are our $3.75 favourites to win the Cup ahead of the Warriors at $4.50 with the Blues and the Redbacks at $5.00. The Bulls are outsiders at $7.00, and they will be the 'home' side on Sunday as they host the Bushrangers, but are the outsiders at $2.30 with the Bushrangers at 1.62.
The first test in Sharjah between Pakistan and Australia is three weeks away but there is a lot of talk around this test and the make-up of the Aussie team. We know that they will have at least five missing from their standard test side for a few reasons, so that has meant that Pakistan are clear favourites at $1.90. Australia is $3.25 to win that first test with the draw the most unlikely result at $4.25. Pakistan are not a renowned 'draw' side so it would only be weather that would possibly see the draw come into play, but that will become evident as the start of the test nears.
RACING (by Nicole Thomas)
Winx is back this week and more popular than ever with punters. The prodigious mare is lining up in the Group 1 Colgate Optic White Stakes at Randwick, aka the George Main Stakes. She currently heads the market at $1.10 and seven brave challengers are taking her on, with her nearest rival Unforgotten at $11 followed by Le Romain at $12. If this race was to be run under handicap conditions, Winx would be carrying 8.5kg more than Le Romain but she is carrying 2kg less. Whatever happens, all eyes will be glued on this once-in-a-lifetime champion at 3:10pm on Saturday. If the $1.10 is too short, UBET have opened a 'Winx Out' market with the favourite Le Romain at $2.70 and Unforgotten at $2.90. Egg Tart ran superbly first-up in the Tramway and is a $4.80 chance, with Ace High next at $5.00.
Flemington also kicks off the Group 1 racing there for the season with the running of the Makybe Diva Stakes. The favourite is Kementari but the Godolphin runner has drifted from $3.70 out to $3.80 early. Punters beware! Favourites in this race have not fared too well in recent years. Last year's winner, Humidor, won the Memsie stakes (a good lead-up race) at the handsome starting price of $21, and has been backed from $4.20 in to $4.00. King's Will Dream is on the next line of betting at $4.60 and you would think if he is going to win the Caulfield Cup (currently $4.60 favourite), he can clearly get the job done here. There's also been some interest in The Taj Mahal at the $41, now in to $31.
Tip: Randwick Race 7 - Pretty In Pink ($6.00)
* Prices correct 4pm Thursday 13th September 2018