Gerard Daffy's Ubet News & Tips

GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 6TH SEPTEMBER

AFL

Footy resumes after a week off tonight (Thursday), and while Richmond still completely dominate the premiership market at $2.25, there are plenty around who think Hawthorn can roll the Tigers tonight. Richmond remain clear favourites price wise at $1.43, but there have been three times as many bets placed on Hawthorn to win at $2.90. It is an interesting move considering Richmond are unbeaten from 14 matches at the MCG this year, and have been clear favourites to win the flag for several months, however with bad weather predicted tonight, perhaps we may see an upset?.

Geelong have beaten Melbourne 15 of the last 16 times they have met, and although Geelong opened as $2.15 outsiders against Melbourne, there is a degree of confidence around them this week, so much so that the Cats are now $2.05. Melbourne have one of the worst records when favourites of the top rated sides having lost 5 of 17 when favourite's this year, and as we know, Geelong are a proven finals side.

Sydney defeated GWS both times they met this year, but they, like the Giants, have had a decent list of injuries to deal with this season, and punters are not sure which way to go here. The betting hasn't moved with the Swans at $1.72 and the Giants at $2.15, and this one is easily the quietest for the reasons outlined. Both are $21 to win the flag and there is little to no interest in either.

It looks like the West Coast will be near enough to full strength on Saturday night when they host Collingwood, and punters expect them to win, and take advantage of a top two finish. It is odd that a side that is on track to get two home finals, and win both, is neglected in flag betting, but that is the case with sparse interest in the Eagles at $7.00. Betting on this match is entirely different however as the opening $1.65 for the West Coast was quickly snapped up, they are currently at $1.60, and look certain to start shorter come Saturday night. The form guide points toward an Eagles win, they defeated Collingwood by 35 points (at the MCG) back in round 17, and the Pies haven't beaten the West Coast in Perth since 2009.

Tip: West Coast at the -9.5 line against Collingwood ($1.95)
Market: https://ubet.com/sports/australian-rules/afl/afl-finals-week-1/west-coast-v-collingwood-8-9

RUGBY LEAGUE

The Brisbane Broncos have been one of the form sides of the competition since their round 22 loss to the Cowboys, and their fans think that they can go all of the way. Brisbane touched $41 after that loss, but it would be a shocking result for UBET if they go on to win the title. To date, Brisbane have been backed to take out more than $1.3M with UBET, and even this week they have been the most popular side, firming in to $9.00 from $11. There will be a real stampede if they beat the Dragons on Sunday, and the money strongly suggests that will happen. Brisbane are $1.27 to beat the Dragons but the bigger money has come at the line which opened at -8.0 and is currently -10.5. The Dragons last won at Suncorp in 2009, so that hardly inspires much confidence in them either. Pin-up boy Corey Oates was first over the try line again last week, that was the fifth time this year, and he is again easily the most popular on Sunday at $6.00.

Souths have not beaten the Melbourne Storm in Melbourne from 14 attempts, but they returned to form last week and the Storm have had some injuries. Some of those players have been named this week, but UBET punters have cast aside the poor form down south of the Rabbitohs and have backed them from $2.15 in to $2.00, including a bet of $12,000 at $2.05. The in-and-out form of both Penrith and the NZ Warriors has the betting public perplexed in trying to find the winner. Although Penrith are price favourites at $1.72 with the Warriors at $2.15, it has been running bet-for-bet between the two sides.

The Roosters won the minor premiership, and while that has been a poisoned chalice in the past, they are a clear $1.55 to beat Cronulla on Saturday night at Allianz. There is money for the Sharks at $2.50, but nothing big, and although the Sharks have beaten the Roosters in six of the last eight clashes, they were beaten by the Roosters 28-10 in round 5. Latrell Mitchell is nowhere near as popular in '1st try scorer' betting each week as Corey Oates, but he actually has a better record this year, having scored the first try on six occasions! If you are looking for a 'saver', Blake Ferguson has been over the try line first three times.

Tip: Souths to beat Melbourne ($2.00)
Market: https://ubet.com/sports/rugby-league/nrl/nrl-finals-week-1/melbourne-storm-v-south-sydney-rabbitohs-7-9

RUGBY UNION

The Rugby Championship resumes this week and although we have what appears to be a one-sided match in New Zealand, there has been an interesting betting trend emerging in the game to be played in Brisbane. The All Blacks are $1.02 to beat Argentina in Nelson on Saturday night, no surprises there, and the line has been set at -27.5 with early money for the minus. However at the moment it is a different in the Australia v South Africa clash with practically every bet in the head-to-head market being for the Springboks at $2.60, and a similar trend for them in line betting at +6.5. Looking back at the results from last year's Championship probably explains why punters are going the way of value. As the two matches last season between the pair ended in draws, 23-23 in Perth, followed up with a 27-27 draw in Bloemfontein three weeks later.

Next year's Super Rugby title is open where the Crusaders head that market at $4.00 ahead of the Hurricanes at $4.75, but there has been a lot of talk over the past few days with a query on where Israel Folau will play. He is still on the Waratahs roster and they are $10, but if rumours are right, and he moves to the Queensland Reds, then the $51 for the Reds will disappear very quickly.

Tip: South Africa +6.5 against Australia ($1.85)
Market: https://ubet.com/sports/rugby-union/the-rugby-championship/the-rugby-championship-matches/australia-v-south-africa-8-9

GOLF

Bryson DeChambeau is a player in form, but still has five players ahead of him in the opening market for the BMW Championship this week, the third of the Fedex tournaments this season. DeChambeau has now won two in a row after he won the Dell Technologies earlier this week following a win in the Northern Trust, but that hasn't really inspired punters to be on him to make it three in a row. Dustin Johnson is our $9.00 favourite and he has been the one to attract most early interest ahead of Justin Rose ($15) who finished second in the Dell Technologies. Jason Day is again the shortest of the Aussies at $29 but Cameron Smith ($34) is perhaps on the verge of a breakthrough win on the Tour after consecutive placings the past two weeks.

Matthew Fitzpatrick opens as our $12 favourite to win the Omega Masters on the European Tour this week, and UBET golf enthusiasts are happy to take that price. Fitzpatrick is the defending champion, but one player to keep an eye on is definitely Aussie Scott Hend at $67. Hend was runner-up to Fitzpatrick last year after also finishing 2nd in 2016 to Alexander Noren.

Tip: Justin Rose to win the BMW C'Ship ($15)
Market: https://ubet.com/sports/golf/pga-tour/bmw-cship/bmw-championship

NFL

The 2081/19 season begins Friday morning (Australian time), and the experts have been divided on who will win the season opener. Courtesy of home ground advantage, the Philadelphia Eagles (reigning Superbowl champions) are slight favourites but have drifted out to $1.85 with the Atlanta Falcons at $1.95. The line was 2.5 points but is now 1.5 with a lot of interest shown in the Falcons at the plus. Like last year, we are geared up for massive betting in the run on the NFL again this season. Apart from the head-to-head and line, there will be several other bet types open throughout each match.

As far as the Superbowl itself is concerned, the Patriots are favourites (again!) at $7.00, ahead of the Eagles at $9.00. As we know that pair played off last season with Philadelphia winning 41-33 as underdogs. This season does look a lot more open than in years gone by and several sides have met with good support including the Vikings ($13), Steelers ($13) and the Saints ($15).

Tip: Atlanta to beat Philadelphia ($2.00)
Market: https://ubet.com/sports/american-football/nfl/nfl-week-1/phi-eagles-v-atl-falcons-7-9

CRICKET

The England v India test series has been enthralling viewing, and although England won the series in Southampton, it was a test that could have gone either way. The fifth and final test will get underway at The Oval beginning on Friday, and although it is a dead rubber, there is plenty of interest. England opened as favourite at $1.85 ahead of India at $2.90 (in from $3.10) with the draw again the outsider at $5.00. The early money has been with India which was also the case in the 4th test, with very little interest shown in the draw.

Market: https://ubet.com/sports/cricket/test-match/test-match/5th-test-england-v-india-7-9

BASKETBALL

The start of the NBA regular season is a little over a month away but we have seen plenty of activity on the pre-season matches, and the same can be said of the betting to win the Championship. Golden State are now hot $1.57 favourites since it was announced Lebron James would be moving from Cleveland to the Lakers, and those two sides have obviously moved as well. The Lakers were $51 pre Lebron signing, but are now on the fourth line at $11. While the Cav's have gone from solid $13 pops to one of the outsiders at $251, and no sign of any takers at that. Boston are now second picks at $8.00 ahead of Houston at $9.00 and there has been lukewarm interest in both, but there has been some interest in the Philadelphia 76ers who are currently at $15.

Closer to home, the Andrew Bogut move to the NBL has created headlines so far, even on the trial matches. The Kings are the $3.00 favourites to win the NBL title and have already attracted 20 times more bets than any other team. Melbourne are just behind them at $3.50, but we haven't seen a rush for that yet, however there has also been a fair amount of confidence shown in Perth at $6.00.

Market: https://ubet.com/sports/basketball/nba/nba-2018-19-futures/nba-championship-winner-2019

MOTOGP

The bikes will be in action at San Marino on Sunday after the last meeting in Britain was cancelled due to bad weather. Jorge Lorenzo won the previous race in Austria but is only third favourite going into this weekend. Marc Marquez won here last year and has opened at $2.50 ahead of Andrea Dovizioso at $4.00, then follows Lorenzo at $5.00 and Valentino Rossi at $6.00. Marquez also won here in 2015 so is the form-rider around the course in Misano, but there is little doubt that both Lorenzo and Dovizioso have closed the gap on Marquez as the season has progressed.

Market: https://ubet.com/sports/motorsport/motogp/motogp-championship/motogp-2018-riders-championship-winner

RACING

Spring racing is ramping up now and we got a sneak peek at some exciting spring contenders last Saturday. This week there's quality racing at Moonee Valley and Rosehill with a total of six Group 2's between them.

The Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes is at Moonee Valley and Night's Watch is the favourite at $3.40. Hartnell is not far away at $3.80 and last year's winner, Bonneval, is next at $7.50. There has also been interest in Spanish Reef ($13) and Odeon ($16) at big odds. The McEwen Stakes is also at The Valley and is the 1000m dash. Nature Strip commandeers the market at $1.50, with Shoals at $4.60 and Houtzen at $8.00.

The four Group 2 races at Rosehill are the Stan Fox Stakes, Theo Marks, The Run To The Rose and the Sheraco Stakes. The Autumn Sun ($1.85) is the odds-on favourite in The Stan Fox and Danawi is next best in the market at the $8.50 quote. There has also been some spec'ing for the roughie Tarka, backed in from $31 to $19. In the Theo Marks, Trapeze Artist is the $2.80 favourite with UBET but does have to lug the 61kg. There are only two other horses in the race under double figures, Siege Of Quebec ($5.00 in to $4.50) and the exciting Godolphin runner, Home Of The Brave ($5.50). The unbeaten colt Graff is favourite in The Run To The Rose but has drawn widest, Zousain is next at $4.20 and Jonker has been well-backed early, now $13 after opening $19. On Saturday at Rosehill we also get to see Champagne Cuddles first-up in the Sheraco Stakes! No doubt she'll be very tough to beat with that sensational fresh record and barrier 1.

Tip: Champagne Cuddles to win the Sheraco Stakes Rosehill R7 ($3.00)
Market: https://ubet.com/racing/future-races/horse-racing/horse-racing/rosehill-sr/race-7

* Prices correct 3:30pm Thursday 6th September 2018

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