GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 30TH AUGUST
It is a quiet week this week as far as AFL betting is concerned with a one-week break leading into the first week of the finals. The markets have been open on those four matches for several days now, and nothing has moved as yet. The one side that looks certain to firm is the West Coast, currently at $1.63 to beat Collingwood. Although that match will be the last of the weekend, the Eagles have attracted the most money so far. While both sides continue to have injury concerns (and the Eagles will be without Andrew Gaff), the Eagles did inflict a big loss on the Pies (102-67) back in round 17, and that was in Melbourne.
Richmond are firm $2.25 pops to win the flag, that is where most of the money has gone, but there is some interest being shown in a couple of the other sides. Hawthorn were out of contention six weeks ago but are now $8.00 and in amongst the bets for them this week was one of $2,000. While Melbourne have looked like world beaters the past two weeks it seems as though the public still don't rate the Demons ($9.00), they have been the least popular side with punters this week of all eight sides left.
A lot of the Brownlow Medal exotics are starting to open, and there will be a lot more to come over the next two weeks. Tom Mitchell has eased slightly out to $1.50 ahead of Max Gawn and Dustin Martin, both at $10, but it has been Gawn who has drawn most attention this week from UBET punters.
The market is also open for next year's flag, and Richmond have opened as the $5.00 favourites ahead of Melbourne ($7.00) and GWS ($8.00). One side that we are tipping to be big improvers on what we saw this year is the Adelaide Crows, they were good in patches only this year, but some of the stories coming out of Adelaide may explain why their form was so erratic, so the market says they will be big improvers in 2019.
Being favourites to win this year's NRL title has been a poisoned chalice recently, and the indifferent form of the Roosters and Souths has opened the title right up. The Roosters remain at the head of betting at $3.50 this week but there have been very few takers. Melbourne ($4.00), Cronulla ($6.25) and Brisbane ($13-$11) have been the 'money' sides this week, particularly Brisbane. There were plenty of small bets coming in for Cronulla early in the week but that came to a grinding halt with the revelations surrounding their salary cap issues, but it appears as though they will not affect the Sharks this season. Cronulla play the Bulldogs on Sunday, and with the Bulldogs back in form, we have noted plenty of support for them at $2.55.
North Queensland landed a huge plunge when they thrashed Parramatta last week, and we did identify that there was a huge reaction to Johnathan Thurston's last home game, and that was the reason for the support. Those punters never had a moment of worry, but their final game of the season on the Gold Coast this week is a bit different. While this will be JT's last ever game, punters are treating the $1.52 with a degree of caution as the Titans ($2.60) were really good when going down 10-8 to the Storm last week. One thing in the Cowboys favour is they have won six in a row against the Titans, and they would want to be sending JT out in a blaze of glory. There are several JT specials open as well, with the most popular of those being 'Thurston to score a try' at $4.00.
Are the Dragons and Penrith gone? They are $34 and $31 respectively to win the title, and their recent form says they are both in trouble, but at least they are still there. The Dragons have lost four of their last five, and while they have won six of their last seven against Newcastle, they travel to Newcastle on Saturday as unwanted $1.75 favourites. The Panthers aren't favourites but there is no confidence in them either at $2.50 to beat Melbourne, in Melbourne, on Friday night. The Storm have 'owned' Penrith for several seasons having won 17 of their last 18 meetings dating back to 2006.
Betting on next week's round 1 of finals will open as soon as we know who plays who.
Tip: Warriors -4.5 against Canberra ($1.90)
The win in Belgium on Sunday by Sebastian Vettel has opened the Drivers Championship right up. Vettel trails leader Lewis Hamilton by 17 points (231-217), and now both are at $1.87. The pair have two wins apiece form the last four races held, and will be on the quick back-up in Italy this week. Vettel is our $1.90 favourite to win in Monza with Hamilton at $2.75, and veteran Kimi Raikkonen is not far away at $5.50. Hamilton has the form on the board in Italy, he has won there four times including last year, while Vettel has three wins there, the last of those being back in 2013.
Tip: Vettel to win the Italian Grand Prix ($1.90)
The results from Tailem Bend at the weekend have seen a big change in the market to win the Supercars Drivers Championship this season. Going into the two races in South Australia, Scott McLaughlin was clear favourite, but with wins to Shane Van Gisbergen and Jamie Whincup, Van Gisbergen now sits on top of the table with 2778 points and is into $1.65 favourite. McLaughlin is 19 points in arrears and has eased to $2.10 while Whincup is still over 300 points behind, needing more wins, and is $31. The next event will see the start of the Enduro part of the season (three races) where we will see the teams in action, and whilst we have had Bathurst open for a while, the Sandown 500 is also now open. That meeting is still two weeks away but Car 1 (Whincup/Dumbrell) is the opening favourite at $3.50.
Well we have a new Prime Minister after all the shenanigans in Canberra last week, and with the market updated on the next Federal Election it seems it will only be a matter of time before we have another PM. Prior to Malcolm Turnbull being ousted, the Coalition were $2.70 outsiders to win at the next election with Labor at $1.45, but Bill Shorten and his team are now in to $1.30 with the Coalition out to $3.30.
Bryson DeChambeau was too good in the Northern Trust last week, but is a fair way down the betting list in the Dell Technologies Championship this week as the Fedex Cup continues. DeChambeau is currently $34 and has attracted some sort of support at that price but the money is with the top few in betting as well as Adam Scott. Dustin Johnson heads the betting at $9.00 ahead of last year's winner, Justin Thomas at $12, then follows Brooks Koepka ($13), Jason Day ($15), Tiger Woods ($23) and John Rahm ($26). Adam Scott is at $29, a price he shares with Justin Rose. There has been some interest in Tony Finau ($34), who finished second in the Northern Trust last week. Cameron Smith played out of his skin last week to finish third and is $81 to win this week. A reminder this tournament starts a day later than normal due (Friday night Australian time).
The European Tour event will be the Made In Denmark which again will be played in Silkeborg. UBET punters only want two players here, the top two in betting, Thorbjorn Olesen at $9.00 and Thomas Pieters at $12.00. Pieters won this event in 2016, and has been in terrific form this year as well. Lucas Herbert is the shortest of the Aussies at $51.
Tip: Dell Technolgies C'ship- Jon Rahm ($26)
England lead their five test series against India 2-1 going into the fourth test, but following on from the impressive performance by India in winning the third test, there is a lot more interest in this series now. England have hovered around the $1.90 mark to win the fourth test in Southampton, but there has been a concerted push for India ($2.75-$2.50) with the draw attracting little support at $6.50. Virat Kohli has been the standout player for the Indians this series, but if some of the others can have some success with the bat, the $2.60 looks decent odds.
Tip: Fourth Test Match - India to beat England ($2.50)
Spring racing begins in a big way on Saturday, and what a day of racing we have. There is Group racing in both Sydney and Melbourne, and apart from the impact that most races will have going forward on the Melbourne Carnival, the Everest remains firmly in the news and we several of those nominated horses down to compete, and a few that could be potential runners. There are promotions available on Caulfield and the Sunshine Coast on Saturday (for those eligible), so check out the website or app for those, and a reminder that all of the 'futures' markets are updated as the day progresses.
Also on Saturday we will have the running of the UBET Birdsville Cup. Birdsville is one of the most iconic race meetings held in Australia, and the two day meeting (Friday and Saturday) will have full Sky Channel (Sky 2) and UBET TAB coverage, and we expect to see plenty of business.
Tip: Concord Stakes SR5 - Invincible Star ($2.30)
* Prices correct at 1pm Thursday 30th August 2018