GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 16TH AUGUST
Richmond met Essendon back in round 11 this year, the betting was similar to what it is this week, and Richmond thumped the Bombers 114-43. Strangely, Essendon have met with good support this week, $4.00 in to $3.00, with the line moving from +27.5 in to +18.5. The Bombers are still a small chance to finish in the eight, but need to win their remaining games and rely on other results, so perhaps that has sparked the interest in them.
The game of the round is the GWS v Sydney match which will be played at Spotless on Saturday night. The Giants have picked up more injuries and the Swans come in off the back of another heroic win against all odds. All of a sudden they are back in the finals mix, and although the outsiders here at $2.10, there has been more money for them than there has been for the Giants. The Swans have won the last two Sydney Derbies (103-87 back in round 3) after the GWS had won the previous three, and there is plenty on the line here for both sides.
Premiership betting is slowing down as currently it looks like a one team race...Richmond. The Tigers are in to $2.25, in-form, have no injuries, but the same cannot be said for all other contenders. The one side that is emerging from the pack is Hawthorn, a proven finals team, and they are now $11, so fifth in line. The catalyst for their form this year has been the dominance of Tom Mitchell who is now $1.35 to win the Brownlow, and while he isn't as short (yet) as Dustin Martin was last year ($1.05), it hard to look beyond Mitchell as the obvious winner. The Coleman Medal is a contest again after Jack Riewoldt kicked 10 goals last week. A month ago Ben Brown was $1.08 to win the Coleman, but Riewoldt's bag of goals has seen him join Brown on 58 goals, and now it is 'game on'. Brown is favourite at $1.72 ahead of Riewoldt at $2.10, but this week the money has been with the Tiger champ.
Tip: North Melbourne to beat Adelaide ($3.00)
The Sydney Roosters are clear $3.25 favourites to win the NRL after their win over Souths, and the loss suffered by Melbourne at the hands of Cronulla. Souths have lost Alex Johnston, and we are not sure for how long, but Greg Inglis is due back next week, so they hold their place in the market at $4.25, ahead of Melbourne Strom at $4.50. The interesting side is Penrith after another miraculous come-from-behind win last week. There hasn't been any money for the Panthers all year, they have hovered around the $12 mark, but the faltering form of St George -Illawarra has opened the door for Penrith to finish in the top 4. Dramas aside, the Panthers are now in to $9.00 to win the comp, but nobody wants a bar of that! At the other end of the ladder, Parramatta ($2.15), Canterbury ($2.75) and North Queensland ($4.00), all sides who were expected to finish in the top 8, now find themselves in a battle royal to avoid finishing at the bottom of the ladder. There was plenty of money around last week for Parramatta at $2.10, but their win over the Dragons showed us what they are capable of. It is worth pointing out that the market for this bet type is 'most losses' as opposed to 'winning' the wooden spoon, so it is highly possible that more than one side will finish with the same number of losses. If that is the case, it will be paid out as tie like any other similar result.
The coaching circus has affected several sides, none more so than Brisbane, but that hasn't put punters off as they have been heavily backed to beat Souths tonight (Thursday). The Broncos have to win, as the Tigers are now a real chance of ousting them from the top 8, hard to believe given we were looking at Brisbane finishing in the top 4 a few weeks ago. After opening at $2.40, Brisbane is now $2.10 with Souths out to $1.77. Brisbane has won six in a row against Souths, but it is imperative that they get the two points here.
Eight weeks ago not many would have rated the Tigers much chance of beating the Dragons, but they have been backed for a stack to win the clash on Saturday evening. If Souths beat Brisbane, the Tigers have an opportunity to draw level if they can beat the Dragons, so they have it all to play for, even if the Broncos do win. After opening at $1.80, the Tigers quickly firmed in to $1.75. The Tigers are in good form, they have won four of their last five, while the Dragons are in freefall having lost five of their last six.
Tip: Wests Tigers to beat the Dragons ($1.75)
The Bledisloe Cup has been part of the Rugby Championship for a few years now, however the matches between the Wallabies and the All Blacks always spark massive betting interest. The first match will be in Sydney on Saturday night, and there has been a surge of interest in Australia who have already been backed from $5.00 in to $3.85 to win the game, with the line moving in from 11.5 to 10.5. The corresponding game last year saw NZ win 54-34 but the Wallabies did win game 3 in Brisbane, 23-18. We have to go back to 2012 to find the last time the Wallabies won the Bledisloe, and the betting says the All Blacks will retain the Cup. They are $1.11 to win the series, and $1.60 to clean sweep the series 3-0. As the Wallabies have occasionally been able to snare a win, there has been some interest in NZ to win the series 2-1 at $3.15. The All Blacks are $1.18 to win the Rugby Championship ahead of Australia at $7.50, South Africa at $9.00, and Argentina again the bolters at $101. The betting on the South Africa v Argentina games has been quiet, with the Springboks at $1.12 and the line set at -15.5.
Tip: Australia +10.5 ($1.85) against NZ on Saturday night
England are on track to win the best of five test series against India after a big win in the second test, which means they lead the series 2-0. The third test gets underway on Saturday and will be played at Trent Bridge in Nottingham. England opened at $1.60 ahead of India at $4.00, and the draw the outsider at $5.00. Given the opening day of the second test was lost to rain and the test still finished inside four days, there has been little interest in the draw this time around.
The Big Bash market has been open for several weeks now, and this week we opened the Women's Big Bash market. The Scorchers and the Sixers head that market at $4.00, ahead of the Strikers and the Thunder at $6.50. Early money has come for the Sixers and the Strikers along with the Heat who are at $9.00.
We have been treated to some outstanding TV the past two weekends with the Darts being played in Auckland and Melbourne, and the Masters Series moves to Brisbane this weekend. There was a major upset in Melbourne when Michael Van Gerwen failed to make the final, beaten in his semi by colourful Scot Peter Wright. Van Gerwen is again the clear favourite in Melbourne at $1.75, ahead of Gary Anderson ($6.00), Rob Cross ($7.00) and Wright who is $9.00, the same price he was last week. There will be live betting on all matches with the tournament getting underway on Friday night.
Brooks Koepka added another Major to his now impressive resume, and the resurgence in form by both Tiger Woods and Adam Scott definitely made a big impact on betting during the last two days of the US PGA Championship. The market to win next year's US Masters has been updated and there is a stack of early interest in it. Jordan Spieth ($10) is current favourite ahead of Rory McIlroy ($11) and Dustin Johnson ($12), but since the PGA Championship finished, punters only want two players, Tiger at $15 and Jason Day at $17.
Practically all of the big names are missing from the Wyndham Championship this week where Webb Simpson is the $13 favourite. Simpson wasn't far away last weekend when finishing in a tie for 19th, the same score line as Jason Day. The two behind Simpson in the market, Hideki Matsuyama ($17) and Henrik Stenson ($15) have also met with solid support, particularly Stenson who won this event last year. Matt Jones is the shortest of the Aussies at $126.
Tip: Wyndham Championship - Brandt Snedecker ($26)
Youngster Stefanos Tsitsipas has burst on to the scene over the past few months and although beaten in the final of the Rogers Cup in Canada, he has been a huge firmer in betting to win the US Open. Tsitsipas was beaten by Rafael Nadal, and took Nadal to a tie breaker in the second set. All of a sudden he is in to $34 for the US Open after being $151 a few weeks ago. Nadal and Novak Djokovic share favouritism there at $4.00.
Serena Williams is back in action this week but has been displaced by Simona Halep as the favourite to win the US Open. Halep is now $5.00 ahead of Williams who has drifted from $5.00 to $7.00, with Angelique Kerber next in line at $8.00.
Both outsiders won in week 1 of the Super Netball finals series, and that has seen a major shakeup to the title market. The Giants were beaten by the Fever in Sydney, and with the Fever going straight through to the Grand Final, they are in to $1.60 ahead of the Giants ($3.80) and the Lightning ($4.75). The Lightning ousted the Firebirds in another shock result, and on the results between them and the Giants this season, they must fancy their chances in Sunday's preliminary final. The Giants won 54-51 at home back in round 1 while they tied 53-53 when the Lightning hosted the Giants in round 8. The Giants opened at $1.75 with the Lightning at $2.00 in Sunday's match, and betting has been split down the middle.
* Prices correct at 1pm Thursday 16th August 2018