GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 2ND AUGUST
The GWS Giants are emerging from the pack as a real premiership hope this year. It has been an amazing turnaround for the Giants who were a $67 pop six weeks ago. Since they have been getting their injured players back, they've been winning and are now $7.00 second picks. There was a big bet of $3,000 at $13 for the Giants two weeks ago, and early this week there was another $3,000 bet at $8.00, which saw the move in to $7.00. At the moment, the only flag money is for them and Richmond, who remain the $2.50 favourites.
In Brownlow betting, Tom Mitchell moved in to odds-on this week after another possession grabbing performance last week. Mitchell is now $1.75, well ahead of Patrick Cripps ($7.50) and Max Gawn ($9.00). Betting interest in the Coleman Medal has been resurrected after Tom Hawkins kicked a bagful of goals in the last two rounds. Ben Brown got in to $1.10 to win the Coleman but with Hawkins now only a couple behind, Brown is out to $1.18 and Hawkins in to $4.50.
The upcoming round of AFL is bizarre in that there are several toss of the coin matches, then we get to Sunday where we see three short-priced favourites, and they all look likely to win. Richmond v Geelong is the big Friday night clash, and there have already been a couple of big price moves here. Richmond opened at $1.30 but have now drifted to $1.40, with the Cats at $3.00 and the line at 17.5. Richmond have beaten Geelong at the last two meetings but prior to that, Geelong had beaten Richmond 13 times in a row dating back to 2007.
The loser of the Hawthorn v Essendon clash at the MCG on Saturday will probably be out of the finals race, and the early money here has been with Essendon who have moved from $1.90 equal favourite's in to $1.80. Both are in-form, and while the Hawks have won three of the last four matches played between the two sides, Essendon have the advantage of a couple of extra days break after last week, and were ultra-impressive in their win over Sydney.
Speaking of Sydney, it is hard to believe that the Swans side we have seen on the receiving end of some bad losses recently was in fact the second favourite to win the flag at $6.50 only six weeks ago. They are at home to Collingwood this week, and the injury curse that appears to be surrounding Collingwood has seen a good push for Sydney who are now $1.72 after opening at $1.90.
Tip: Collingwood to beat Sydney ($2.15)
We had an anomaly in premiership betting on the NRL last week when Souths won, but their price drifted! Souths were $5.50 prior to coming from 12 points behind Parramatta to win 26-20, and they subsequently drifted to $6.00. That wasn't the only shock come-from-behind win as Penrith did a similar thing when beating Manly. The Panthers were down 24-6 but scored four tries in the last 10 minutes to win 28-24. There were a lot of enquiries as to what the betting was before Penrith went on that try scoring blitz. Manly were $1.01 (no takers) while Penrith were $15, and there were a few small bets at that price for them to score a miraculous win. It just goes to show it can happen, and that the game has opened up so much in this day-and-age to allow that to happen.
The match of the round this week is clearly the second match on Friday night between Souths and Melbourne. Souths have been scratchy the last two weeks, but have still amassed 10 wins from their last 11 games. Souths have drifted early, currently $2.25 after opening at $2.15, but when Melbourne play away from home, oddly the big money for them is normally on game day. The Storm have won their last five matches against Souths.
Melbourne are $3.50 to win the title at the moment, but the money side this week is the Roosters. Following on from their big win over the Dragons, we cut the Roosters $3.75, so just behind Melbourne, but practically every premiership bet this week has been for the Roosters. They should get another win this week when they host the Cowboys, and UBET punters agree. The Roosters are $1.21 and have been supported early at the -12 point line.
Tip: Newcastle to beat the Tigers ($2.05)
It has been obvious for the majority of the Super Rugby season that the Crusaders were the team to beat, and they go into Saturday night's final against the Lions as the shortest price ever in a Super Rugby Grand Final. The market has the Crusaders at $1.08 with the Lions at $8.50, and the line a whopping 17.5 point start. There hasn't been a lot of early interest in the head-to-head price (plenty of multi's though with the Crusaders), but the line has seen the bulk of support come for the Crusaders giving up the start. This will be the third time the Lions have contested the final, and they were beaten in both matches contested by the Hurricanes in 2016 and the Crusaders last year. The Lions have only won three of their last 10 away games, and travel to Christchurch where the Crusaders have now won 19 on the trot at home. Everything points towards them being big winners!
Tip: Lions +17.5 against the Crusaders ($1.90)
After missing the cut at the British Open, Dustin Johnson bounced back with a vengeance winning the Canadian Open last weekend, and is our opening favourite for the Bridgestone Invitational this week. The Bridgestone has a select field of around 75 each year, and as you would expect, there is plenty of interest with all of the big names going around. Johnson is favourite ($8.00), ahead of Rory McIlroy ($11) and Tiger Woods ($13), then follows Justin Rose ($15). Tiger is the interesting starter, as he wasn't far away at Carnoustie and has won the Bridgestone a staggering eight times, the last of those wins being in 2013. There has been a stack for him to win the US PGA Championship which begins next week, but punters are also keen on him chalking up another win this week. Outside of those four players mentioned, there is money for Francesco Molinari ($26), Tommy Fleetwood ($29) and last year's winner Hideki Matsuyama ($41). There are five Aussies in the field and the shortest of those is Jason Day at $23.
The Fiji International gets underway on Thursday morning, and while the organisers haven't gone with a well-known US PGA player this year, it is still a very handy field. Scott Hend has been in terrific form and is the top pick at $13, but there is also early money for Lucas Hebert ($23) who wasn't disgraced in finishing in a tie for 51st at the British Open.
Tip: Jordan Spieth to win the Bridgestone Invitational ($23)
Market: Market: https://tattsbet.ubet.com/sports/golf/pga-tour/wgc-bridgestone-invtnl
The F1's have a month off now before they race in Belgium, but following on from the Hungarian GP at the weekend, the win by Lewis Hamilton has seen his Championship price slashed to $1.45 with Sebastian Vettel back out to $2.40. They look to be the only two chances now, and are actually equal favourites at $2.25 to win in Belgium.
Marc Marquez is back dominating motoGP again, and is a red hot $1.45 chance to win the Czech Republic GP this week. Marquez defeated Valentino Rossi and Maverick Vinales in the most recent race in Germany, and also won here in Brno last year, and should justify his short quote. Jorge Lorenzo's form has been in and out this season but he is still the second pick at $6.00 ahead of Rossi, Andrea Dovizioso and Vinales. The Czech Rep race has provided four different winners over the past four years but it is hard to go past Marquez in the form that he is in.
The Supercars will race under lights in Australia for the first time since 1997 when they raced under lights at Calder Park, although they did race under lights when competing in Abu Dhabi several years ago. Apart from the novelty factor for spectators this week, it is a very important race as they will be racing for double points as there is only the one race for the weekend. Saturday night's race will be over 300 km's (71 laps) and starts at 4.20pm (AEST), and there is already huge interest. Scott McLaughlin and Shane Van Gisbergen share top billing in the betting at $3.20, and these two drivers are in-form having won a race each at Ipswich two weeks ago. Jamie Whincup is next in line at $4.50, and it is worth noting that Whincup did win race 2 here last year, and it was over the longer trip of 52 laps. Outside of the drivers mentioned, there is also plenty of support for Craig Lowndes at $15.
Tip: Scott McLaughlin to win the Sydney Supernight 300 ($3.20)
The National Sprint and Distance titles get under way this week with each state running their respective heats, and with Sandown holding the finals this year, all eyes will be on their heats on Thursday night when Tornado Tears steps out over the longer trip again. Tornado Tears has had a couple of weeks off since running just outside the record at the Meadows at his last start, and should justify his $1.20 price in his heat. Betting is open already on all of the heats in each state, and as soon as the draws are done following those, the state finals' markets will open as well. Also this Sunday night we will see the running of the Darwin Cup which will be a fabulous lead in to Monday's Darwin Cup for the gallopers.
* Prices correct at 4pm Thursday