GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 26TH JULY
Upsets last week weren't only confined to the AFL as Wests Tigers took the sword to the Dragons, and kept their faint finals hopes alive. The Tigers are $34 to win the title but they also have to keep winning and rely on teams above them losing, so it won't be easy. Souths were equal favourites with Melbourne at $4.50 to win the title but are out to $5.50 with the Storm in to $4.00 favourite just ahead of the Roosters at $4.50.
All of the eight matches this week mean something whether it be top four, top eight or the dreaded wooden spoon. There are two standout games, the Thursday night clash between Brisbane and Cronulla, and the final match between the Roosters and the Dragons. Brisbane have been inconsistent in recent times, and the Sharks will be fielding a near full strength side. Although slight outsiders at $2.05, the majority of the money to date has been with the Sharks at $2.05. The Roosters opened at $1.70 to beat the Dragons at $2.15, and based on what we saw of the two sides last week, the $1.70 wasn't expected to last long, and it didn't. The first move for the Roosters saw them firm in to $1.62, but as the majority of the early trading has been focussed on them, the $1.62 might not last.
Tip: Roosters -3.5 against the Dragons ($1.85)
The win by the Gold Coast Suns over Sydney last week has certainly created plenty of talk given the Suns were $16 when the match kicked off. In a field of two, that puts the Suns in the category of one of the upsets of the year as far as sport goes, and in regards to the AFL, one of the biggest upsets in the history of the game. Now Suns fans are faced with the dilemma of lining up and taking $1.30 to beat Carlton this week. Can they do it? The answer is yes, surely they will get the job done, and the Suns feature prominently in most AFL multis for the weekend.
The Swans are sliding at the moment, and travel to Etihad on Saturday night as $2.05 outsiders to beat Essendon. Sydney do have a good record at Etihad but they were so bad last week that punters have been keen to take the $1.77 for the Bombers. Adelaide and Melbourne face-off against each other on Saturday night, and both need a win. The Crows need to keep winning to make the eight while the Demons need wins to ensure they stay in the eight. With the Crows running into some form the money is with them ($1.74 in to $1.70) to beat Melbourne, but bigger punters are keeping their powder dry at the moment just to make sure that Rory Sloane will be fit to play.
Richmond are back in to $2.50 to win the flag with the West Coast second pick at $6.50, while Tom Mitchell is back in to $2.10 to win the Brownlow Medal.
Tip: Essendon to beat Sydney ($1.77)
The Crusaders have been odds-on to win the Super Rugby title for several weeks, and punters expect them to cast aside the Hurricanes in this week's semi -final. The Crusaders opened at $1.40 to beat the Hurricanes but have already moved in to $1.35 with the line also moving from -6.5 to -7.5. This pair met twice during the season proper which saw the Hurricanes win 29-19 at home in round 3 then the Crusaders won at home 24-13 in round 15. Oddly enough the Hurricanes started slight favourites in both matches but it is all one-way traffic for the Crusaders this week.
The Lions host the Waratahs on Saturday night, and the Lions have been a very big go in this match. The travel factor will have a lot to do with the anti-Waratahs feeling here, and the only time they played each other this season was back in round 10, in Sydney, and the Lions won 29-0. After opening at $1.28, the Lions quickly firmed in to $1.28, but the line was the big mover, now -9.5 (and at $1.80) after opening at -7.5. Betting on the final will open Sunday morning.
Tip: Hurricanes +7.5 against the Crusaders ($1.90)
The win by Francesco Molinari in the British Open wasn't a real surprise when looking at his lead-up form, and he was well up in the betting at $31 prior to the first round. Going into the last round Molinari was some way down the betting list at $15 behind Jordan Spieth who was the $2.75 favourite, but the Italian played a faultless round to get the job done. Apart from his performance, all the talk was around Tiger Woods who actually drew level at one stage, and maybe Tiger isn't finished as far as winning Major's is concerned? The US PGA Championship is on in 2 weeks' time and practically every bet since Monday morning has been for Tiger at $17. We currently have three equal favourites there, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Spieth, all at $12, and Tiger is the next one in the betting.
Dustin Johnson had the weekend off at Carnoustie after missing the cut, so should be fresh for the Canadian Open this week where he is the $6.50 favourite. Several players have made the quick dash across to Canada, and several were to the fore in Scotland including Brooks Koepka ($13), Tommy Fleetwood ($19) and Kevin Kisner ($41). Jhonattan Vegas has won the last two Canadian Opens and is $41 to make it a three-peat while Aaron Baddeley and Matt Jones are the shortest of a five-man Aussie contingent at $81.
Tip: Tommy Fleetwood to win the Canadian Open ($19)
The five test series between England and India gets underway in Birmingham next Wednesday, and already there is plenty of interest being shown by UBET cricket fans. England are currently at $2.00 and while England have attracted plenty of support already, they only narrowly edge out India as far as investments are concerned. India are currently at $3.10, and it looks as though most are of the opinion that a draw is unlikely as it is friendless at $4.20.
Sebastian Vettel let a big opportunity slip through his fingers when he crashed out while leading in the German GP at the weekend. Vettel slid out in the wet conditions, and that handed victory to Lewis Hamilton who had started well back on the grid in 14th position. Hamilton now holds a 17-point lead over Vettel in the standings and is at $1.67 with Vettel at $2.05 in title betting.
They will be in action again this week in Hungary, and based on past results here, as well as the way last week's race panned out, it should be a good betting contest. Hamilton is a five-time winner in Hungary, the last of those wins back in 2016. Vettel won here last year and in 2015, and we must throw Dan Ricciardo in the mix as he won here in 2014. Vettel will be the favourite ($2.65) based on last week's effort (aside from the crash!) ahead of Hamilton but both Ricciardo and Max Verstappen must be rated highly as well.
Tip: Vettel to win the Hungarian Grand Prix ($2.65)
Scott McLaughlin and Shane Van Gisbergen won the two races held at Ipswich last weekend, and that was good news for punters as both started clear favourites in each race. Although McLaughlin is $1.50 to win the Drivers Championship it is still alive and well as Van Gisbergen is still there with a chance at $2.50.
The next race isn't until the weekend after this but it is worth mentioning as it will be a 'first' for the Supercars in Sydney. There will only be one race held at Eastern Creek, but it will be held under lights over 300km's on Saturday night. It will be well worth a look for those who haven't seen the cars under lights before. In the opening market Van Gisbergen and McLaughlin share favouritism at $3.00, ahead of Jamie Whincup ($5.00) and Fabian Coulthard ($7.00).
* Prices correct at 2pm Thursday