GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 19TH JULY
There has been some serious flag money around this week following on from round 17 where we saw some huge upsets. Only three of the nine favourites were able to win, and although beaten by the Giants, one punter rated the loss by Richmond as he was first in on Monday with a bet of $3,800 on the Tigers at $2.75. A month ago it looked doubtful that the GWS could make the eight, but they are now $1.50 to do so, and even a chance to finish in the top 4 if they can keep winning. We posted the Giants at $13 after their win over Richmond and that drew a good bet of $3,000 at that quote. Carlton now look on track to finish at the bottom of the ladder and are $1.10 in the 'most losses' market.
Tom Mitchell remains top elect at $2.50 to win the Brownlow Medal but this week we have taken a stream of bets for both Max Gawn and Andrew Gaff who are $6.00 and $9.00 respectively. Another player who has burst on the scene over recent weeks is Brisbane's Dane Beams who is now $15, and while the Lions are winning, he looks certain to be amongst the votes.
Practically every match means something this week but it is the last game of the round that has created the most talk. Port Adelaide will have to try and win with Paddy Ryder and Robbie Gray missing, and punters think they are a risk. The GWS Giants are running into form as they get players back and there has been plenty of business for them at $2.05. It is a very important game as far as flag and top 4 positions are concerned (and even top 8) so it will be interesting to see how the result shapes the futures markets when they re-open on Monday.
Tip: GWS to beat Port Adelaide ($2.10)
The Origin series is now behind us and the winner out of that was definitely Melbourne who won all six matches. They would have budgeted for less, so it was a terrific performance, and even more impressive when three of those were only by one point. The Storm has now been elevated to equal $4.50 favourites to win the title, ahead of the Roosters ($5.50) with Penrith and the Dragons at $8.00. The Broncos slipped up badly last week with a loss to the Warriors so they go out to $21, but that loss has added more pressure to Brisbane as Canberra and Wests Tigers are now breathing down their neck.
Brisbane will be in a 'pressure cooker' position again this week when at home to Penrith. The Broncos will be desperate to maintain a gap against Canberra, particularly given the Raiders have a terrific for and against. Penrith get players back this week, and it is one of the rare occasions where Brisbane are at home and have eased in the market, now $1.85 out from $1.80.
The wooden spoon might be decided tonight (Thursday) when Parramatta play Canterbury. The Eels are $1.80 to run last with the Bulldogs $3.00, and the Cowboys nearby at $5.50. Sides can go up and down the ladder from year to year but a look back at the premiership betting before round 1 saw the Cowboys second favourite to win the title at $6.50 and Parramatta on the fifth line at $11. The Cowboys will be desperate to beat the Dragons in Townsville on Saturday night to get themselves away from wooden spoon discussions. They have a very loyal fan base that are happy to take the $2.55 to beat the Dragons, and the stats say they must be a chance, as the Dragons haven't beaten the Cowboys in North Queensland since 2005.
Tip: Penrith to beat the Broncos ($1.98)
The British Open gets underway on Thursday afternoon, and there will be live betting throughout the coverage with UBET. Carnoustie is expected to again be difficult to play this week, and for that reason we are seeing a wider spread of money than normal. Dustin Johnson is an easing $13 favourite, ahead of Rickie Fowler and Justin Rose at $17. While we would normally see the top three or four in a Major dominate the market, that isn't the case this week. Last year's open winner was Jordan Spieth, and he is another who has been neglected to some degree at $23 while Tommy Fleetwood and Jon Rahm, both $23, have attracted plenty of support. Jason Day is the shortest of the eight Australians in the field at $29, just ahead of Marc Leishman at $31, with the conditions in Scotland likely to suit Leishman. Adam Scott is $61 (opened $101), possibly the longest price he has ever been in a Major, so it will be interesting to see how he fares. Kiwi Ryan Fox is currently $101, and his good recent form has seen him also popular with UBET punters.
Tip: Marc Leishman to win the British Open ($31)
The Supercars will be in action at Queensland Raceway, Ipswich this weekend with two races to be decided again. The first race on Saturday is open for business with UBET and it will be run over 39 laps with the second race to be held on Sunday which will be over 65 laps.
Racing is venturing south after meetings in Darwin and Townsville two weeks ago, where the winners there where Jamie Whincup and Shane Van Gisbergen. That pair finished 1-2 in each race with Scott McLaughlin filling the podium on each occasion. Not surprisingly the trio dominate the market for race 1 at Ipswich with McLaughlin the $2.75 favourite, ahead of Whincup and Van Gisbergen at $3.50, and then there is a big gap to Dave Reynolds at $7.50. McLaughlin and Chaz Mostert won the two races here last year but Mostert hasn't been able to recapture that form and is a $51 chance this week.
Tip: Race 1 - Scott McLaughlin ($2.75)
The German F1 will be run at Hockenheim on Sunday, and this race has had a chequered history of recent times. It was cancelled in 2015 and 2017, and is supposed to alternate with Nurburgring each year. Lewis Hamilton won the 2016 version of the race which was held at the Hockenheimring circuit, and also won back in 2018 at the same venue. Hamilton finished out of the placings in the British GP behind Sebastian Vettel, and that duo head the market this week at $2.40, with a lot more invested on Hamilton than Vettel at this stage. Dan Ricciardo is on the fourth line of betting at $9.00 and there is also a stack of interest being shown in him as well.
Novak Djokovic and Angelique Kerber have had their names engraved on the Wimbledon trophies, and it would be fair to say that six months ago a win to either would have been most unlikely! Injuries and some massive upsets throughout Wimbledon saw both have relatively easy wins in their respective finals, and both are now well in contention for the final Major of the year, the US Open. Djokovic did open at $4.00 after winning Wimbledon but is now in to $3.50, just ahead of Roger Federer at $4.00 and Rafael Nadal at $5.00. Serena Williams is clear favourite at $4.50 to win the women's title ahead of Kerber at $9.00 with Garbine Muguruza and Simona Halep at $11.
It wasn't a real shock to see France win the World Cup as they went into the tournament as the fourth pick at $8.00. They actually touched $9.00 after an unimpressive performance against the Socceroos, but from their second game onwards they gained in popularity and in a massive betting final went in as the $1.92 favourite to win inside 90 minutes, which they did.
With the World Cup now behind us, the focus moves back to all of the domestic competitions around the globe, most of which begin in the coming weeks. The most popular of those is always the EPL and the opening round there is only three weeks away. Man City opened at $1.65 to win the title and remain at that price with Liverpool ($6.00) and Man United ($7.00) next in line. Outside of the top three, Arsenal have been backed at $21, and there is solid interest in Chelsea at $15, but nothing like what we have seen for them over the past few years.
Closer to home and the big news for the A-League this week was Usain Bolt signing on for a trial period with the Central Coast Mariners. Gimmick or not, it certainly gave the A-League a big injection of much needed publicity, so fingers crossed that Bolt can show he has what it takes and gets a start at some stage. The 2018/19 season looks as though it will be the most open ever with Sydney FC heading the market at $5.00, narrowly ahead of the Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City at $5.50. Perth Glory are a fair way down the list at $11 but have attracted the most individual bets to date.
* Prices correct at 1pm Thursday