GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – WEDNESDAY 11TH JULY
As we know NSW have already wrapped up the 2018 State of Origin series, and that has made Game 3 tonight all the more intriguing. The Maroons were $2.25 this time last week, they lost Greg Inglis through injury which would normally see the price blow out the gate, but it has gone the other way! The Maroons are now trading at $2.20 with NSW out to $1.70. There are a lot more bets for Queensland than the Blues, and we have become accustomed to that, but the big five-figure bets (e.g. $10,000) for the favourites just aren't there, so clearly those who would normally be happy to back the favourites see this as a real danger game, one that QLD can win. The "Billy Slater' factor must have a lot to do with that, as even though Slater is down the list somewhat at $15 to be the first try scorer, he is one of our worst results The same applies to the 'Player of the Match ' market where he is the standout at $8.00. Damian Cook, Cameron Munster and James Maloney are all also at the $8.00 quote. However, it is Slater and Daly Cherry-Evans ($15-$13) who the UBET punters want to be with as kick-off time approaches. As soon as tonight's match is over the series betting will open for 2019.
All of the upcoming matches will close tonight and re-open tomorrow morning after injuries etc. have been assessed.
Tip: Queensland to win Game 3 ($2.20)
The Richmond juggernaut just simply keeps rolling along and the Tigers are now in to $2.75 to win back-to-back flags. Prior to the last round getting under way there was another decent bet for Richmond of $3,000 at $3.00. That has been a constant theme over several weeks now, as most other sides struggle to maintain consistent form, and of course most also have injuries. Collingwood are now on the second line at $7.00 but the Pies are one of the sides accumulating a decent injury list, and they are just ahead of Geelong and Port Adelaide at $8.00. Although eight of nine favourites won last week, the upsets this year have made it very difficult to try and work out which sides will make the top four, or even the top eight for that matter, and there are probably 10 sides still well and truly in the mix for a finals berth.
The lights are probably already out for Adelaide this year but a loss to Geelong on Thursday night will confirm that. The 'home' sides have won the last four meetings between these two sides, but the Cats have been a big mover early in the week, coming from $1.95 outsider to clear favourite at $1.77.
The GWS are precariously placed as well and are in a similar boat to Adelaide, lose this week and maybe they start organizing holidays for September, hard to believe considering many thought they would dominate the competition for years to come. One thing in favour of the Giants this week is that they have won their last two at home against Richmond, so there has been some interest in them at $2.60, but the bigger money is all with Richmond.
Tom Mitchell remains a short priced favourite to win the Brownlow Medal at $2.50, but the three players behind him, Andrew Gaff ($7.50), Patrick Cripps ($8.00) and Max Gawn ($9.00) have each met with support this week. Gaff has had an outstanding year in a side that has won a lot of games, and the same cannot be said of Carlton (where Cripps has starred). While Gawn will have to overcome the hoodoo of a ruckman winning the Brownlow, and that hasn't happened since Adam Goodes won.
Tip: North Melbourne to beat Sydney ($2.10)
This weekend will see the final round of Super Rugby played before the finals get under way next week, and that makes for some tricky betting matches. The Crusaders are raging $1.50 favourites to win the title now, but there is plenty of jostling going on behind them. It is likely that the Chiefs will meet the Hurricanes in the first week of playoffs and they also meet each other on Friday night. While the Chiefs have beaten the Canes in three of their last four at home, there has been a pretty decent go for the Hurricanes who have already firmed from $1.70 in to $1.60.
The Sunwolves thrashed the Reds 63-28 back in May but they will be in Brisbane Friday night where the Reds are 4-3 this season, and the Sunwolves are still yet to get a win away from home. Most expect the Reds to win here, they are $1.22, and there has been support for them to cover the -12.5 point line as well.
All of the home sides are favourites this week, and that is in keeping with the results so far this season. Out of the 113 matches, 73 have been won by the home side, there has only been one draw, and the 'away' sides have only racked up 39 wins.
Tip: Hurricanes to beat the Chiefs ($1.60)
Australia got a few handy wins in their T/20 competition last week but to be brutally honest it hardly rated a mention here with so much other sport on. That doesn't really diminish anything from the popularity of the T/2O form of the game, and UBET have opened a market up on the Big Bash. Looking at the market shows just how open it is with three equal favourites at $6.00, the Strikers, Heat and Scorchers. The outsiders are close up behind at $8.00 with those sides being the Hurricanes, Sixers and Thunder. It's only early days but the money to date has been for the Heat, Hurricanes and Melbourne Stars who are a $7.00 chance.
With the British Open getting under way at Carnoustie next week, many of the bigger names will be in action in the Scottish Open this week. Gullane will host the Scottish Open and Justin Rose along with Rickie Fowler head that market at $11.00. This course has only been used for the Scottish once before, in 2015, and Fowler was the winner on that occasion. He has had early backing along with Patrick Reed ($19) and Russell Knox ($23) who won the Irish Open last week.
Most of the big name players will be missing in the US PGA Tour event this week as they prepare for the British Open. The John Deere Classic will be played at Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois, and a resurgent Franceso Mollinari heads that market at $11. Bryson De Chambeau was last year's winner and he is on the second line at $12 just ahead of Zach Johnson at $13. Johnson has form here as not only did he win in 2012 but also finished second in 2009 and 2014. Matt Jones is again the shortest of the Aussies at $101.
Tip: Scottish Open - Andy Sullivan ($26)
The win by Sebastian Vettel in the British GP has seen a major change to the Drivers Championship market. Lewis Hamilton was $1.28 prior to the weekend but is back out to $1.65 after failing to finish on the podium with Vettel now close-by at $2.10. Most of the money on this market both before the season started, and during, has been with Hamilton but with Vettel now holding a slender eight point lead over Hamilton we expect him to gain support before they race again in Germany next week.
Marc Marquez is now $1.13 to win the motoGP title, and after his win in Assen two weeks ago he will go into this weekend's German GP as a red hot favourite around the $1.50 mark. Jorge Lorenzo finished down the track in the Dutch but will still be second elect this week, ahead of Andrea Dovizioso and Valentino Rossi. Marquez has raced five times at Assen on the bigger bikes and has the perfect record, winning all races from 2013 to 2017, so he should justify the short quote with a win on Sunday.
The Greyhound Origin Series will be run at Albion Park on Thursday night, and even though this will be a new event, it has been hugely received both sides of the border. Three races will be conducted on Thursday, a sprint over 520 metres, a distance race over 710 metres, with both of those containing four runners from NSW and four from QLD, and there will be a 520 metre match race as well, and the way things are shaping that could be the decider. In keeping with the league version of Origin there is a market to win the series where QLD is the $1.75 favourite ahead of NSW at $2.10, and also a 'correct score' market as well. Jury is the $2.90 favourite to win the sprint race but our form men suggest that Maurice Minor ($6.00) will be hard to beat while up-and-coming QLD stayer Double Gee is $3.50 to win over the longer trip. There has been a big early move for Jalapeno in that race with his price now halved from an opening $12 in to $6.00.
Tip: Sprint race - Maurice Minor ($6.00)
* Prices correct at 4pm Wednesday