GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – WEDNESDAY 27TH JUNE
In a rather weird season, it is the West Coast Eagles who are now under pressure on the back of a couple of losses. Three weeks ago the Eagles were $5.50 second pick to win the flag and most thought it would be a Richmond/West Coast Grand Final. It only takes one or two injuries to bring a side back to the field, and the Eagles are now in that position with key forwards Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy missing. Now they travel to Adelaide on Saturday evening and take on a Crows side who are fighting for survival. They probably can't make the 8, but a loss to the Eagles will make a finals berth nearly impossible for the Crows. That has sparked a big push for Adelaide who are already in to $1.67, after opening at $1.80. Oddly enough the last two matches between the Crows and Eagles have resulted in wins to the Eagles, with both scores being the exact same...100-71.
GWS got the win last week and they are another side who need to keep winning if they are to play finals this year. Both the GWS and Adelaide were around the $7.00 mark to win the flag before the season started, and are two of the disappointments of the season thus far. The Giants will have to try and get the job done against Hawthorn this week without Jeremy Cameron, and that is a big loss. The Giants have only hosted Hawthorn twice, and won both, but the last time they met away from Sydney it ended in a 97-97 draw.
Hawthorn's Tom Mitchell is now clear $2.75 favourite to win the Brownlow Medal but there were a couple of other movers last week. Patrick Cripps is now second favourite at $8.00 but the big question is, have Carlton won enough games, or been close enough in their losses for Cripps to score votes? Shaun Higgins has had a terrific season for North Melbourne and has come from the clouds to be a $12 chance now.
Tip: Hawthorn to beat GWS ($2.00)
NSW wrapped up the Origin Series on Sunday night, but the game wasn't without its controversies again...but that is Origin. The Blues went in as $1.41 favourites, however we had a big liability with QLD at $3.00, and that was in keeping with what Maroon supporters love, that is being the outsiders. Dane Gagai was denied the first try but it didn't matter in the end as the two horror results in our book were Gagai and Valentine Holmes, and it was Holmes who eventually strolled over for the first official try at $11.
Game 3 is now a 'dead rubber', but as we know that term doesn't exist when we are talking about Origin. The Maroon's will be eager to salvage some pride at home, and punters think that will happen. The market went up with NSW favourite's at $1.74 and QLD at $2.10, but practically every early bet has been for QLD who are now trading at $2.00.
The extra break will be of benefit to most sides this week although there have been several players affected by delays in planes leaving Denver after the England v New Zealand test on Sunday morning (our time). The most interesting game of the round will be played in Adelaide on Friday night where the Roosters will meet Melbourne. Both teams are in form, but the Roosters will be missing Boyd Cordner, and that has seen them posted as the $2.20 outsiders with Melbourne at $1.68.
The Warriors are one of the sides affected by the dramas in Denver but they have been heavily backed to win at home on Friday night. We thought that punters would steer clear of the Warriors at $2.00 to beat Cronulla, but they have attracted around 75% of the early business and are now equal favourites at $1.90. The Warriors have struggled to beat Cronulla in the past, but one thing that does stand out is that points are always at a premium when these two sides play, so that might be the way to go...take the 'unders'.
Tip: Newcastle -4.5 against the Bulldogs ($1.85)
Super Rugby returns this week after three weeks off for the tests to be played, and that leaves us with only a couple of rounds before the finals start.
The Blues are yet to win at home this season but are hot $1.22 pops to beat the Reds on Friday night in Auckland. The away record for the Reds isn't flash as they have only recorded one win from seven away matches, but there has been solid support for them here at the +10.5 point start.
The last two times the Waratahs played the Rebels, the Waratahs won by a combined 51 points. The Waratahs are also yet to lose to another Aussie team this season but the push in their game Friday night has been for the Rebels who have firmed from $2.30 in to $2.25, in what is shaping up to be a good betting game.
The match of the round is clearly the Highlanders v Chiefs on Saturday afternoon. The Highlanders have put together 13 wins in a row at home, and while they have also recorded four wins from their last five at home over the Chiefs, they did lose the last one 24-15. So what does that all mean? Clearly it favours the Highlanders who are clear $1.50 favourites but we have seen a concerted push for the Chiefs at $2.60.
Tip: Chiefs to beat the highlanders ($2.60)
Jorge Lorenzo has bounced back to his best and heads to the motoGP in Assen this week having won his last two races. Lorenzo won in Italy then again in Catalunya, and although he has finished well down the track (15th and 19th) at his last two appearances in Assen, he will be a close second favourite behind Marc Marquez this week. Marquez won here back in 2014 and subsequently finished on the podium in 2015 and again last year. One rider who has good form at this circuit is Danilo Petrucci who has finished second last year to Valentino Rossi and second in 2016 to Andrea Dovizioso, so he must be rated a podium chance at least.
Lewis Hamilton was back in the winner's circle in France at his last start, and he is a clear $2.00 favourite with UBET to back that up with a win in Austria this week. After touching $1.72, Hamilton is back in to $1.35 to win the Drivers' Championship with Sebastian Vettel the only other hope at $3.00. Vettel is also $3.00 to win in Spielberg this week, with a decent gap to Valtteri Bottas at $8.00 with Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo next in line at $9.00. Austria has only been back on the F1 calendar for five years now, with victory going to Bottas last year and Hamilton in 2016.
Tip: Lewis Hamilton to win the Austrian Grand prix ($2.00)
The British Open is less than a month away, and local hope Tommy Fleetwood has been the best-backed player since his efforts in the US Open. Fleetwood is on the fourth line of betting at $19, a price he shares with Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose and Justin Thomas. Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy head the market at $11, but one surprise is the high level of interest in Tiger Woods at $21.
Fleetwood will be lining up in the Open de France this week, and has also been well supported here at $14. He won this event last year but there are a couple ahead of him in the market, namely Justin Thomas ($12) and Jon Rahm ($13). Outside of the obvious, Graeme McDowell might be a 'smokey' at $51 as he is a two-time winner of the French Open (2013 and 2014).
The US Tour event for the week will be the Quicken Loans National which will be played at Potomac, Avenel Farm, for the second time. Kyle Stanley won here last year and although well up in the betting at $23, there hasn't been much interest shown in him. Rickie Fowler is our current favourite at $8.00, ahead of Tiger Woods at $13, so there will be a lot of eyes, and dollars, on Tiger this week. Marc Leishman is third favourite at $19 and clear favourite in the 'Top Aussie' market.
Tip: Rickie Fowler to win the Quicken Loans National ($8.50)
The 5-0 ODI loss suffered by Australia at the hands of England probably flew under the radar this week with the focus on the World Cup and the State of Origin, but the Aussies get a small opportunity to salvage something tonight (Thursday) when they play England in a one off T/20 match. The shorter form of the game would normally suit our players but as we know we do have Dave Warner out of the side. Having said that the squad looks ok on paper and there has been early money for Australia at $2.60 to grab a win over England who are $1.50.
Tip: Australia to beat England T20 ($2.60)
The grass season rolls on and a loss to Roger Federer in Halle last week has seen his price edge out to win Wimbledon, which begins next week. Federer was beaten by Borna Coric in Halle, and that saw Federer drift from $2.25 out to $2.75 to win Wimbledon, while Coric's price crashed in from $251 to $34. Novak Djokovic is slowing getting back to form and is in to $6.00, while Rafael Nadal and Marin Cilic are close behind at $8.00. Cilic is another running into form at the right time as he won the London event on Sunday. Nick Kyrgios is well up in the betting at $15 again, but who knows what he will produce over the two week period!
As far as the women's title is concerned, Serena Williams claims she is all good to go next week, and is the $6.00 equal favourite with Petra Kvitova, but it appears as though UBET punters are not so sure as they have been lukewarm only about the price for Serena. On the other hand, Kvitova had a win at the weekend, loves grass, so she has been the best-backed so far. Garbine Muguruza has moved in a little from $8.00 to $7.00, French Open winner Simona Halep is solid at $14, and Ash Barty has a heap of admirers at $26.