Gerard Daffy's Ubet News & Tips

GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 7TH JUNE

RUGBY LEAGUE

The big plunge on NSW was landed when they won the first Origin game 22-12 on Wednesday night. The prices before kick-off had the Blues at $1.42, QLD at $2.85 and the line was -6.5. Most of the bet types were won by the favoured options including the First Try Scorer and the Player of the Match. So the Blues lead 1-0, same as last year, but while the Maroons were able to come back and win the series last year, the betting suggests that that won't be the case in 2018. NSW have opened at $1.35 to win the match with QLD at $3.10, with the opening line set at 8 points. With the lead, NSW are now $1.15 to win the series with QLD out to $5.50.
Matches for the upcoming round are back up, and it seems as though at this stage there may not be too many casualties from the Origin match. Canberra have won three of their last four home matches against Penrith and they are equal $1.91 favs this time around but the Panthers are in fantastic form and are also the equal premiership favourites. The other Friday night match is interesting, as all will depend on whether Greg Inglis backs up. The Maroons captain played a blinder on Wednesday night but suffered his fair share of knocks. Souths are clear $1.33 favourites to beat the Gold Coast, but if he was to come out, there would be a major move in the market.
There must also be some doubt over a few players involved in the Melbourne v Brisbane match which will be played on Sunday. The Storm are currently $1.42 with Brisbane at $2.90, and while Melbourne have won 14 of their last 16 matches against Brisbane, it has been pretty quiet so far, as punters wait to see if there are any changes to the sides.

Tip: Manly to beat the Warrriors ($2.25)

Market: https://ubet.com/sports/rugby-league/nrl

GOLF

He had to do it the hard way, but Adam Scott has scraped into next week's US Open after coming in through the back door via the sectional qualifiers. This will be Scott's 68th consecutive appearance in a Major, a fantastic effort in itself. At the moment there are nine Aussies in the field, and the shortest of those is Jason Day, on the 3rd line of betting at $15. Scott is a $41 chance, the current favourites are Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy at $13, and Tiger Woods is $21.

It is quite normal for most of the bigger names to have the week off leading into a Major, but Dustin Johnson will be lining up in the St Jude Classic this week. Johnson is a previous winner of this event in 2012, and is the ruling favourite at $8.00, ahead of Brooks Koepka ($10) and Henrik Stenson ($12). Daniel Berger has the form here having won the St Jude the last two years, and is well in commission at $26. The shortest of the Aussies is Matt Jones, but he is well down in the order at $126.

Tip: Phil Mickelson ($17)

Market: https://ubet.com/sports/golf/pga-tour/st-jude-classic/st-jude-classic

FORMULA 1

The Gilles Villeneuve circuit where the Canadian F1 is run each year is an interesting circuit as it is partially run through the streets of Montreal, and it is truly a multipurpose track. There is renewed interest in F1 racing now as Daniel Ricciardo won in Monaco. Although the tight track in Monaco was helpful in getting Ricciardo over the line in first place, it appears as though most think he and his Red Bull machine will struggle in Canada, as he is a $15 pop. Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel are the co $2.50 favourites with the bulk of the early action being for Hamilton. The Brit is still short at $1.45 to win the Drivers Championship but has an affinity with this course having won the race the last three years as well as in 2007, 2010 and 2012, a very imposing record.

Tip: Lewis Hamilton ($2.60)

Market: https://ubet.com/sports/motorsport/f1

SUPERBIKES

Racing for the superbikes returns to the Czech Republic for the first time since 2012 this week. Only two riders in the field have won at Brno before, Jonathan Rea in 2010 and veteran Marco Melandri won both races in 2012 which was the last time they raced here. Rea was beaten in both races in the UK last outing finishing second in race 1 and third in race 2 which were both won by Michael Van Der Mark. On that occasion Van Der Mark was one of the outsiders in race 1, so it was an upset, and maintained that form into race 2. Rea will be short again this week when the markets go up, but at least those behind him in the market can take some confidence from the fact he was beaten at Donington.

Market: https://ubet.com/sports/motorsport/superbikes/world-superbike-championship/world-superbikes-2018-riders-championship

BOXING

Jeff Horn will defend his WBO Welterweight title in Las Vegas on Sunday Australian time, and the betting is taking a similar path to what it did late last year when Horn defeated Manny Pacquiao. On that occasion Horn opened at $6.00 and was $3.20 when the fight got under way, and we all know what the result was there. This time Horn opened at $5.50 against Terrence Crawford, is already into $4.20, and the trend looks like taking the same path as in that memorable bout. The ratio of bets is running 15:1 in favour of Horn but Crawford is attracting the bigger bets even though he has eased from $1.15 out to $1.21.One of those bets came in overnight, $10,000 for Crawford to win by KO at $1.80 All the boxing critics who reside out of Australia say our boy has got no hope, but we have heard that before haven't we?

Market: https://ubet.com/sports/boxing/wbo

AFL

The big news this week was centred on the Brownlow Medal when ruling favourite Nathan Fyfe was suspended for a week, so he is out of the running for a second Brownlow. As we know that is the risk in Brownlow betting now, and while he has been around the $3.50 mark for a few weeks we didn't see any takers at that price, probably due to the ongoing concern that a player can be suspended, and of course that is what has transpired. Hawthorn's Tom Mitchell is the new fav at $3.25, ahead of Dustin Martin and Jackson Macrae at $5.50, then Max Gawn at $9.00. Gawn is going to have to defy recent history by winning the medal as a ruckman, but he is playing really well, and Melbourne are winning, both key criteria.

Melbourne remain at $6.00 to win the flag behind Richmond ($3.75) and the West Coast ($5.00), and that trio have dominated the betting this week. The win by the GWS saw their price move in to $26 while North Melbourne are now $17, but there are very few takers for either.

Port Adelaide need a big scalp, and they get a chance to grab one at home on Friday night. The task has become somewhat easier for Port as Dustin Martin has been ruled out, and that has seen Port come from $2.15 in to $1.75, a big turnaround. Wins between this pair have been split in their last six matches going back to 2014 . Geelong's home ground has become a real fortress, unless they are playing Sydney, and there is plenty of dollars around to say that they will beat the Roos on Saturday. They are already carrying the hopes of most multi punters for the weekend.

One punter was either impressed by the GWS bouncing back last week, or wasn't impressed by the Suns in their big loss at home, as he has plonked $26,700 on the Giants to beat the Suns at the short price of $1.06 (in from $1.10). The line has moved out to 44.5 points in that game, but with a bit of bad weather around Sydney during the week, there hasn't been any early interest in the big minus.

Tip: North Melbourne +15.5 ($1.90)

Market: https://ubet.com/sports/australian-rules/afl

GREYHOUNDS

The Queensland Winter Carnival for Greyhounds will be in full swing tonight (Thursday) with the heats of the Flying Amy Classic and the UBET Gold Cup due to be run at Albion Park. While there are only two heats of the Gold Cup over the 710 metres, Victorian trainer Robbie Britton will have six runners in the two heats including arguably the best two stayers in the world, littermates Rippin Sam and Tornado Tears. Both are long odds-on favourites to make their way through to next Thursday's final, and Tornado Tears is our $1.80 favourite to win the Cup. Neither has trialled at Albion Park so that can be viewed as a minus, and both heats have a number of runners with early pace, so hopefully both can steer clear of trouble to go through to next week.

The all-important box draw for both features will be conducted at Albion Park on Friday morning and will be streamed live on both the UBET Facebook and Twitter accounts.

Market: https://ubet.com/racing/greyhound-racing/Albion-Park-BG/Race-7/Win?Date=20180607

RACING

Sixteen quality sprinters will line up to decide this year's Stradbroke winner at Doomben on Saturday, and after the barrier draw it appears as though punters are none the wiser as to the likely winner. Champagne Cuddles has been the favourite for nearly two weeks, and that hasn't changed post barrier draw as she is rock solid at $4.20, in from $4.60. She is attracting big support now that they may be racing on a rain affected track, and there was another $5,000 bet this morning at the $4.20. Saturday's race is expected to be the last racetrack appearance of Impending, last year's winner, and the entire has been in fabulous form this campaign. He is on the second line at $5.00, ahead of Perast at $5.50 (in from $7.50). Most expect Perast to either lead or sit off the other noted speedster The Monstar. It depends on how the track is playing, it may well be a big advantage to be in front. Outside of those mentioned, the best-backed has clearly been Santa Ana Lane, the recent winner of The Goodwood in South Australia. Prior to the draw Santa Ana Lane was $11, but the price analysts think he might need too much luck from the inside draw of barrier 3 and moved him out to $17. There was an immediate reaction, that price was cut to $15, and that is still being taken.

Tip: Champagne Cuddles to win the Stradbroke ($4.20)

Market: https://ubet.com/racing/future-races/horse-racing/horse-racing/doomben-br/race-5

* Prices are correct 4pm Thursday

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