GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 12TH APRIL
Favourites fared slightly better last week in the NRL when five of the eight won, but it is still tough going and after each round there are more questions posed going forward. The Dragons and the Warriors have gone on their winning way, with the Dragons now in to $6.00 to win the title, with the Warriors at $9.00. The Roosters are back at the head of proceedings at $5.25, but the weekly upsets have seen bigger premiership bets disappear for the time being. The Bulldogs ($3.25) and Parramatta ($4.00) now find themselves at the head of betting to run last, and that is strange in itself, given the expectations for both were so high before the season started.
All eight home sides are favourites this week so perhaps the results might run straighter. The Dragons have been the best-backed side in early action, $1.55 in to $1.50 to beat the Sharks on Saturday night. The Dragons have won three of their last four at home against Cronulla, and punters have gone with them to win again. New Zealand opened at $1.53 on Monday and that price has moved in to $1.50, with money also coming for their line which is now -5.5 after being -4.5. The Warriors have actually won six of their last seven against the Broncos at Mt Smart, and on current form they should win...but it is the Warriors!
Tip: Parramatta +4 against the Raiders ($1.90)
Hawthorn's Tom Mitchell is now outright Brownlow Medal favourite, and the experts have him pencilled in for eight or nine votes already. Mitchell was third favourite at $13 when the market opened last October, and while we didn't really see any big bets for him before the season started, that is changing now. Before the last round started, Mitchell attracted a bet of $1,600 at $5.50 and two bets of $500 at $5.00. He is now $4.25, ahead of Dustin Martin at $4.75 and Nathan Fyfe at $6.00. In flag betting, the focus has been on the two South Australian sides this week. Sydney lead the market at $5.50, but most money this week has been split between Adelaide and Port Adelaide, who occupy the second line at $6.50.
There are a lot of short priced favourites this week, so there is plenty of multi action going through them. North Melbourne have been a decent go to beat Carlton, $1.60 in to $1.53 to date, and the Roos have won their last three against the Blues. The best betting game of the round is clearly the Essendon v Port clash. The Bombers were insipid last week against the Bulldogs who had shown nothing to date, and they have been copping it in the Melbourne press, so those taking the $2.20 must think they can reverse their form. Port got the fright of their lives when luckily beating Brisbane by five points, and they do travel to Etihad Stadium in Melbourne where Essendon have won four of the past five meetings.
Tip: Freemantle +33.5 against GWS ($1.90)
All six favourites won last week in Super Rugby, and glancing down the prices for the upcoming round, the same thing may happen again! The dividend for all six favourites winning this week based on the opening prices is roughly $4.00 for each $1 outlay, so you get a feel for how short they are.
Things get under way on Friday night when the Hurricanes host the Chiefs. The Canes are the $2.50 favourites to win the title but have a few injury concerns coming into the match. That hasn't deterred many however, as the opening $1.35 was quickly snapped up on Monday, moving in to $1.28 with the line at -9.5.The Hurricanes have amassed a great record at home having won 16 of their last 17 in Wellington, BUT the last two home losses suffered have been inflicted by the Chiefs.
The Waratahs have had the wood on the Reds of recent times having won seven in a row dating back to 2013. The Reds petered out badly in the second half against the Brumbies last week, eventually going down 45-21. While it isn't a foolproof way of doing the form, the Waratahs took care of the Brumbies the previous week, so some sort of comparison can be made. However there has been an early push for the Reds with a price move from $4.00 in to $3.50, and the line has also moved in a point from 10.5 in to 9.5.
Tip: Hurricanes -9.5 against the Chiefs ($1.90)
The final round of the NBA season is on today (Thursday), so we can settle in for a fantastic finals series.
As we know the Golden State Warriors have limped into the finals, but still command plenty of attention at $2.50, narrowly ahead of Houston at $2.75. The Cavaliers are next in line at $7.50, ahead of the Raptors at $10. The 76'ers are now a $21 chance, and with a few of the experts tipping them to progress beyond the first round in the Eastern Conference, there is a good sprinkling of money for them to go all the way. At one stage the 76'ers were $51 to win the Eastern Conference, but have been $8.00 in to $5.50 this week on the back of a host of bets, including one of $1,200 at $8.00.
There will be plenty of 'futures' markets on the playoffs available when we know exactly who will be playing who, so keep an eye on the website or the UBET App for those.
Patrick Reed is our US Masters Champion for 2018, and while he was a $51 chance going into round 1, he did attract a lot of business. In fact the betting on the US Masters got a huge lift this year with the star attraction being Tiger Woods. We noticed that there was unprecedented interest in Tiger from smaller gold punters, but the bigger bets skirted around him, even on his daily groups.
The next Major will be the US Open in eight weeks, and in a revamped market following the Masters, Dustin Johnson heads the betting at $10, ahead of Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth at $12. Tiger has already attracted a stream of bets at $19 as has Reed at $34, with Jason Day the clear top pick of the Aussies at $15.
This week the US Tour event is the RBC Heritage which will be played at Hilton Head in South Carolina. Most of the big names will be having the week off as they often do after a Major, but it has still thrown together a good field. Dustin Johnson opened at $9.00 and there has been early money for him along with second pick Paul Casey at $17. Cameron Smith was the surprise packet of the Masters and for the first time he is inside the price of Marc Leishman in an event, $26, with Leishman at $29. A win by either would hardly be a surprise based on their form in the Masters. Wesley Bryan won the Heritage last year but is one of the outsiders at $151, while Luke Donald has been runner up a staggering five times in the Heritage (including last year) and is $51.
Tip: Luke Donald - Top 5 in the RBC Heritage ($9.00)
The market for the Eurovision Song Contest has been open for a few weeks now, and while Israel has been the solidly backed favourite at $3.00, there is plenty of interest in Australia at $11. As most would know, this year we will be represented by one of our most popular artists in Jess Mauboy, and the sneak previews of the song that Jess will be singing has received praise for being a 'catchy song', one of the key components of several of the past winners.
Sebastian Vettel was a long odds-on favourite to win in Bahrain last week, and he got the job done defeating Valtteri Bottas and Lewis Hamilton. Hamilton was penalized five places on the grid after installing a new gear box, so his effort in finishing third was full of merit. They back up quickly with racing moving to Shanghai this week, and the gap between the top two is a little closer than it has been, with Hamilton at $2.00 and Vettel at $3.00. Hamilton has won five times in Shanghai including last year, while Vettel's only win there was in 2009.
The third round of the Superbike season will be held in Aragon this week, a course that all riders would know extremely well as it is one of the major test courses. Marco Melandri won both races in Australia before Jonathan Rea and Chaz Davies won in Thailand. While we haven't seen the domination that was expected this season by Rea, Davies is in good form and will be a close second favourite when betting opens for this week's races. Davies has also won three of the four races here over past two years, a terrific record. Rea did win race 1 here in 2017 and finished second to Davies in two of his wins, so there are good reasons to be on either.
The eyes of the racing world will be firmly focussed on Randwick this Saturday for day 2 of The Championships. The superstar mare Winx attempts her 25th win in a row, thus drawing level with Black Caviar. Winx has been long odds-on in all of her races over the past two seasons, and while she is $1.16 to win again, there has been some interest shown in Humidor ($11) and Happy Clapper ($16) to score an upset win. It is worth remembering that Humidor did run Winx to a neck in the Cox Plate, but Winx just seems to know where the line is. We have noticed at UBET that there have been numerous $1 bets placed on her to win....not to win the 16 cents, but no doubt to hang on to the ticket in years to come, what a memento!
Almandin is an easing $4.20 favourite to win the Sydney Cup on what is a fabulous program. Sir Charles Road was an impressive winner last start and has been best-backed to beat the favourite at $7.00, but there are several runners who have met with good support. Pre Stwick will be having his first run in Australia and is another that has been met with big support. The Japanese stayer was $13 early in the week but has been backed down to $11, and while we rarely see Japanese runners in Australia, don't forget they did quinella the Melbourne Cup in 2006, with Delta Blue and Pop Rock, so connections from Japan are well aware of what it takes to win a staying race in Australia.