Gerard Daffy's Ubet News & Tips

GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 8TH FEBRUARY

CRICKET

The ODI series loss suffered by Australia against England seems a distant memory as the Aussies powered to the second win in the T/20 Tri Nations series on Wednesday. After opening the $2.90 outsider to win the final, Australia are now in to $1.80, and they do look the goods.

The third match will be at the MCG on Sunday night, then the action moves to New Zealand where three matches will be played, then it is finals time. The MCG match will see England back up again after Wednesday's loss, and they are very much unwanted now at $2.30, with Australia commanding all of the attention at $1.63.

A lot of the Australian side will feature prominently in the upcoming Indian Premier League, and the market has been opened to win that. Currently there are three equal favourites at $5.50, Kings X1 Punjab, Sunrisers Hyderabad and Rajasthan Royals. Punjab have been clearly the best backed (in from $6.00), and no doubt the recent form of Aaron Finch and Marcus Stoinis would have a bit to do with that.

Tip: Third T/20 - Australia to win ($1.63)
Market: https://ubet.com/sports/cricket/t20-international/t20-international-matches/3rd-t20i-australia-v-england-10-2

SUPERBOWL

As we now know, Philadelphia were crowned 2018 Superbowl winners, and although the Eagles went into the match as the $2.65 underdogs, there were plenty of happy UBET punters who continued with the theme of backing 'roughies' in finals. It was actually a terrific finals series for those who go against the favourite's, as 6 of the 11 matches were won by the outsiders, and they also covered in 10 of those 11 matches played.

Within minutes of the Superbowl finishing, the market for next year was opened, and not surprisingly, there has been plenty of early interest in the two sides that faced off last Monday. New England have opened as the $6.00 favourites ahead of Philadelphia at $8.00, and outside of that pair, the only other teams to attract any early business have been Pittsburgh at $11 and the LA Rams at $19.

Market: https://ubet.com/sports/american-football/nfl/nfl-2018-19-futures/nfl-superbowl-liii-winner-2018-19

AFL

The women's AFL season got under way last weekend, and the only upset of the round was the comprehensive win by Brisbane over Adelaide. The Lions exacted some revenge for the defeat at the hands of the Crows in last year's Grand Final, and although they were missing Erin Phillips, any loss at all in this short season is a setback. That has seen a revamped flag market this week where Melbourne now lead the way at $4.00 ahead of Carlton ($4.50) with Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs at $4.75. The Bulldogs were impressive in their win over Fremantle, and it already looks as though their clash with Brisbane at South Pine on Sunday will be the betting match of the round. The Lions opened at $1.67 with the Bulldogs at $2.20, and the betting is split right down the middle.

Tip: AFLW - Carlton -5.5 ($1.90)
Market: https://ubet.com/sports/australian-rules/aflw/aflw-matches

GOLF

The World Super 6 Perth will be the co-sanctioned European Tour event this week, and although it is a relatively new concept being played at Lake Karrinyup for the second time, it was pretty well received last year.

For those unfamiliar with how this one works, here it is in black and white.

The event will combine 54 holes of traditional stroke play across the first three days, with a six-hole knockout match play format for the fourth and final round (Sunday).

A standard cut to the leading 65 professionals and ties will be implemented after the second round (36 holes).

The field will be further reduced with a second cut being made after the third round (54 holes) to the leading 24 players who will battle it out over six-hole matches, until one man is left standing. Hence, we have Top 4 and Top 8 markets for this event, as opposed to the usual Top 5, Top 10, etc. So as you can see, it takes on a golf version of T/20 cricket later in the tournament. Local Brett Rumford won last year and he is just behind the favourites at $29.

The US Tour event will be the AT&T at Pebble Beach in California. Dustin Johnson has won this event twice in the past, 2009 and 2010, and he has opened as the $7.50 favourite ahead of Jason day, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm at $11. Just behind those sits last year's winner Jordan Spieth, and it seems punters believe that the winner will come from that quintet as there is little interest in any of the other players apart from Phil Mickelson at $31. Mickelson finished in a tie for fifth in the Phoenix Open last week, but has won this event four times, the last of those wins coming back in 2012.

Tip: AT&T Pebble Beach - Rory McIlroy ($11)
Market: https://ubet.com/sports/golf/pga-tour/att-pebble-beach/att-pebble-beach

MOTOGP

Betting is open on the motoGP Riders Championship for this year, and there has been a lot more activity across a host of riders compared to years gone by. Marc Marquez won the title last year, his fourth title from the last five years, and while there has been early support for him at $1.90, the same has applied to most behind him in the market. Jorge Lorenzo ($5.50) has won the title three times, the last time in 2015, and he is followed by Maverick Vinales ($6.50) and Andrea Dovizioso ($7.50). Vinales got off to a flying start last year but his form slipped as the season progressed. Veteran Valentino Rossi ($9.00) is always popular in these early markets and that is the case again and Aussie Jack Miller has been a big firmer at long odds. After opening at $126, Miller is now in to $41.

Market: https://ubet.com/sports/motorsport/motogp/motogp-championship/motogp-2018-riders-championship-winner

RUGBY UNION

The Brisbane Global 10's will get under way on Friday afternoon, and that will be a nice pre-cursor to the Super Rugby kick-off next week. The 10's comp has been difficult to price up, and the Chiefs are the current $5.00 favourites ahead of the Blues, Crusaders and Hurricanes at $5.50. The money agrees, as those are the sides that the focus has been on, so it seems our punters think it will be a Kiwi domination. There will be live betting on all matches across the weekend.

The scenes are a little bit similar in the Super Rugby market as well. The two standout sides with punters both in dollars invested and bet numbers have been the Crusaders ($4.00) and the Hurricanes ($4.00). Of the rest, the Lions ($7.50) and Chiefs ($7.50) have been able to attract some attention, but nothing like the two at the head of proceedings. The Melbourne Rebels have been freely tipped to be the big improvers this season, and there has been a lot of smallish bets placed on them after several key signings, which has seen the price come in from $251 to $29.

Market: https://ubet.com/sports/rugby-union/super-rugby/super-rugby-futures/super-rugby-season-2018

RACING

The racing down south is certainly hotting up. The weight-for-age Orr Stakes is the feature at Caulfield on Saturday and is the first Group 1 of the season. The top three in betting are all first-up and the Weir-trained Tosen Stardom heads the market but has drifted early from $4.40 out to $4.60. Godolphin's Hartnell sits next at $6.00, just in front of last year's winner Black Heart Bart at $6.50 who has drawn to get a gun-run and looks the one to beat. Brave Smash and Mr Sneaky are both $8.50 and the Australia Stakes winner (always a good lead in race for the Orr) Thronum has been met with support, shortening from $13 in to $11. There is also a big watch on the 1400m specialist Tshahitsi ($16) who is stepping up to Group 1 level. There are plenty of other excellent Group races on Saturday, including the Autumn Stakes, Rubition Stakes and the Blue Diamond Preludes for the babies, which is an exciting lead up to the Group 1 Blue Diamond at Caulfield in a fortnight's time.

Tip: Black Heart Bart - Orr Stakes at Caulfield ($6.50)
Market: https://ubet.com/racing/future-races/horse-racing/horse-racing/caulfield-mr/race-8

* Prices are correct 3pm Thursday.

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