GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 30TH NOVEMBER
Australia kept their imposing record at the GABBA intact with a win in the First Test, but there were a few worrying moments throughout the journey. England were actually favourite on two occasions, and Australia got to a 'best priced' $3.50, so it was definitely a contest at various stages.
So now to Adelaide, and a day/night test again with a pink ball. The stats for Adelaide point towards a result anyway with only four draws there in 20 tests over the last 20 years, and the day/night factor probably only makes a draw less likely. The opening price was $7.50, and that is unheard of in a test in this country between two legit test sides. Some punters couldn't believe their eyes and launched into that price and the draw has now settled at $6.00. Australia are clear favourites at $1.63 with England gathering support at $3.50. England did beat Australia in Adelaide in 2010 but the Aussies won by over 200 runs in 2013.
Series betting is back up with Australia at $1.15, and a 4-0 win slightly favoured at $5.00, just ahead of 5-0 and 4-1 at $5.50. The ever-reliable Steve Smith is in to $1.65 to score the most runs for Australia for the series while Mitch Starc is $2.25 to top the Australian wicket taker for the series.
Tip: England to win the second test ($3.50)
Royal Pines on the Gold Coast will host the Australian PGA Championship this week, and they have gathered together a fabulous field. After another good year playing around the world, Marc Leishman gave up an opportunity to play in the rich Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas to play in Queensland, and he is the $7.00 opening favourite. Not surprisingly, he is the player who has commandeered most of the early money along with Cameron Smith ($9.00) who has also had a good year on the US Tour, as well as being in the thick of things at the Australian Open last week. Sergio Garcia has always been popular with Australian punters. He's had a breakout year winning his first Major and is second pick at $8.00, just ahead of Smith and Adam Scott at $9.00. They are the four big names but there has been a stack of early interest in Matt Jones ($21), Jonas Blixt ($26) and Wade Ormsby ($34). Ormsby won in Hong Kong last week and Blixt went very close to winning last week in Sydney in a welcome return to form. Harold Varner won here last year after finishing in a tie for second in 2015, but has attracted very little support at $23. Greg Chalmers has won the PGA Championship twice in 2011 and 2014 (the last time at Royal Pines), and looks reasonable value at $67.
Justin Thomas is the $6.50 favourite to win the Hero from Dustin Johnson ($7.00) and Jordan Spieth ($7.50), who made a quick dash across after playing in Sydney. It is an elite field of 18, but all eyes will be on one of the outsiders. Tiger Woods makes another return, is a $41 chance, but has had more bets placed on him than any other player! Hideki Matsuyama is the defending champion and a $15 chance.
Tip: Australian PGA - Marc Leishman
There has been another rally this week for Richmond to go back-to-back next season. The Tigers, Port Adelaide and Geelong have been easily the best backed sides since betting opened. This week there was a bet of $4,000 for Richmond at $9.00 which was followed up by a bet of $1,000 a couple of days later at $8.50. The punters keep chipping away at Port at $8.00, the same with Geelong, but there hasn't been much interest in either Adelaide or Sydney at $5.50.
Dustin Martin is now Brownlow favourite at $5.00 ahead of Paddy Dangerfield at $5.50, but there was a surge of interest in Nathan Fyfe at $17, after he played well in the International Series (hybrid game) against Ireland earlier in the month.
The money was proven to be spot on when Scotland put on a basketball score to beat the Wallabies at Murrayfield last Saturday night. The Scots were backed from an opening $2.70 in to $2.40 before kick-off and easily accounted for the Wallabies in a record breaking 53-24 win.
The Wallabies return home now to prepare for the Super Rugby season while the European sides have the Six Nations fast approaching. England are still warm $1.70 favourites to win the Six Nations from Ireland, then follows Wales and Scotland at $11. There hasn't been a lot of recent action on the Super Rugby title where the Crusaders head that market at $4.25 ahead of the Hurricanes at $5.00, the Lions at $7.00 and the Chiefs at $7.50.
All the money is for the Kangaroos to win the World Cup on Friday, both head-to-head and also at the line. Australia opened at $1.16 after thrashing Fiji but moved in to $1.14 (now $1.11) when England just edged out Tonga in a controversial finish. The line opened at -16.5 but has already moved in a couple of points to -18, and practically every dollar is for the Aussies to cover that spread. Apart from the fact Australia haven't had to travel since the semi win last Friday, and the English have had to get back from New Zealand, the English have also picked up a serious injury to hooker Josh Hodgson. That will see him sidelined for the best part of nine months.
It all points towards a win for Australia. The Jillaroos are $1.28 to beat New Zealand ($3.70) in the women's World Cup final which will precede the men's final. However, there has been some interest in the Ferns ($4.20 in to $3.70) and more so with 10.5 points start at $1.90. There will be live betting available on both matches.
Tip: Rugby League World Cup - Australia -18.0 ($1.90)
12 of 15 favourites covered lines in week 12, which means it well and truly belonged to the punters. And, let me tell you, us bookmakers really felt the pinch when the popular New England Patriots touched down late to beat their 16.5-point handicap against the Miami Dolphins. Speaking of the Pats, they've firmed once more to take out Superbowl 52, now $3.50 to win back-to-back titles. Remember when they were torched by the Kansas City Chiefs on opening night and every Tom, Dick and Harry was questioning everything from their defence to Tom Brady's durability to Bill Belichick's recruiting? Well, just like those thoughts, any value around the defending champions is long gone.
Round 9 commences in the City of Churches with a re-match of the recent FFA Cup Final between Adelaide United and Sydney FC. Sydney got the job done in extra-time in that game and the early money trail suggests the 'Big Blue' can double down here. UBET punters are all over the Sydney at $2.08 to score back-to-back wins, with support for the Reds at $3.45 and the Draw at $3.45 scant to say the least. Newcastle's also a popular selection at $2.40 to knock off $2.70 outsiders Melbourne City on Saturday night, in what shapes as the match of the round. Formerly the laughing stock of the league, the Jets are absolutely flying right now and a second straight win over a Melbourne side would not surprise.
After a one-week hiatus to accommodate the FIBA World Cup Qualifiers, the domestic league returns to our screens tonight (Thursday) with a bit of a whimper, if we're telling the truth. Cellar dwellers Sydney face off against fellow strugglers Cairns and it's the hosts, the Kings, who go in as $1.41 favourites, not that there's too much interest in them at the price. Betting is buoyant however on the Friday afternoon blockbuster between the New Zealand Breakers and the Perth Wildcats. New Zealand are the firm $1.65 favourite with UBET with Perth at $2.25. You'd almost reverse those odds if this game was being played in Western Australia, such is the parity between these two teams.
* Prices are correct 9am Thursday.