GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 23RD NOVEMBER
The Ashes gets under way today (Thursday), and naturally there is a huge amount of interest in not only the first test, but the series. Storm clouds have been active around Brisbane for over a week now, and that has seen the price for the draw crumble from $5.50 a few weeks ago down to $4.00, but got back to $4.75 before the test got underway. It is easy to make up lost time in a test match in this day and age, but we also know from first-hand experience how the weather can turn in Brisbane! Australia went in as clear $1.72 favourites, but there was a surprise late move for England, in to $3.75 from $4.20 early in the week. All of the series markets close while the test is under way, but there are a raft of options open for 'live' betting throughout the game, so there should be something there for everybody.
Tip: Australia to win the first Test
The 30-6 score-line in favour of England over the Wallabies last week was not a real indication of how close it was, and there has been plenty of controversy about the match ever since. At the end of the day it is still a loss for Australia, and they must now move on and try and grab a win over Scotland this week. The Scots were valiant themselves in only going down by 5 points to the All Blacks last Saturday, and are normally competitive against Australia, so it sets up a tricky battle this week. Scotland defeated the Wallabies in Sydney 24-19 in June, and the last time the pair met at Murrayfield was in the same fixture last year, which saw the Wallabies scrape home 23-22. The betting has Australia at $1.45 with the Scots at $2.75 and the line set at 5.5. There has been some early interest in Scotland at the plus.
Tip: Scotland +5.50 against Australia ($1.85)
Australia are red hot $1.05 pops to make their way through to next week's World Cup final, and not only do UBET punters expect the Kangaroos to beat Fiji, it is expected to be by a big margin. The line opened at -22.5, with several four-figure bets forcing that line in to -24.5, but judging by the level of interest even at the number, the line looks certain to move again. Australia are now in to $1.16 to win the Cup after Fiji caste aside New Zealand last week, and that has naturally made the path somewhat easier for the Aussies.
England take on Tonga in the other match to see who goes into next week's final, and there has been an interesting betting trend in that one. Tonga have been heavily backed each time they have played so far, and it was obvious that Aussie league fans had 'adopted' them, but there has been a major switch this week with the bulk of the support coming for England. After opening $1.65, the Poms are in to $1.62, but most of the activity has been for them to cover a 3.5 point line, which is now trading at $1.85.
Tip: Tonga to beat England ($2.40)
Abu Dhabi will host the last F1 Grand Prix for the season on Sunday, and while the Driver's Championship has already been wrapped up, it will be interesting to see the intensity on display this weekend.
Lewis Hamilton (2011,2014,2016) and Sebastian Vettel (2009,2010,2013) have each won three races in Abu Dhabi, so can easily handle the track and oppressive conditions. For that reason they dominate the market as they have for the better part of the season. Hamilton opens as the $1.75 favourite with UBET, ahead of Vettel at $3.20, but the next batch of drivers have all met with solid support. Valtteri Bottas ($7.50), Max Verstappen ($11), Daniel Ricciardo ($11) and Kimi Raikkonen ($21) have all been backed to provide an upset, so clearly punters think that Hamilton is vulnerable as he already has the title.
Tip: Sebastian Vettel ($3.20)
The Supercars will also be in action for the final time this year on Saturday and Sunday. Newcastle is a new addition to the calendar, and is a street circuit, so that makes it all that more intriguing. Jamie Whincup holds a lead of 30 points over Scott McLaughlin in the Driver's Championship, and Whincup's price is now $1.50 (in from $1.55) with McLaughlin at $2.50.
With such a slender lead, and two races on at the weekend, tactics will play a vital role, particularly if one of the duo can win the first race. They share $3.50 favouritism in race 1, with a lot more bets coming for McLaughlin at this stage. Chaz Mostert is on the third line at $5.50, then follows Shane Van Gisbergen ($7.50) and Fabian Coulthard at $11, each of whom have also gathered plenty of support. Saturday's race really is a marketers dream for the Supercars, and we are seeing that reflected in the betting.
Tip: race 1 - Jamie Whincup ($3.50)
Speaking of a promoter's dream, the Australian Open has Jordan Spieth and Jason Day in their field this week, and that has sparked some ferocious betting activity. Spieth is a two time winner of the Open, having won last year when played at Royal Sydney, but also in 2014 when played at The Australian, the same course that will be used this year. Spieth deserves to be short, and is at $3.25, but he has eased from an opening $3.00. Jason Day's appearances have been scarce in 2017 for a number of reasons, but back on home soil he is expected to be very hard to beat as the second pick at $5.50. Cameron Smith has had a good year and he is an early mover in from $11 to $10, and carrying a similar number of bets to the two favourites. Smith did finish third to Spieth at Royal Sydney last year.
The Hong Kong Open is the European Tour event this week, with Justin Rose ($5.50) and Sergio Garcia ($7.00) heading that market. The US Tour has a break leading in to the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas next week where Rose and Spieth are two of the main hopes in a select field.
Tip: Jordan Spieth - Australian Open
The Jeff Horn v Gary Corcoran Welterweight title bout is fast approaching, and we are beginning to see some bigger bets arrive for Horn. Corcoran had been backed from $5.50 in to $4.10 which saw Horn's price move out to $1.25 at one stage, but that is well and truly gone now, with the current price being $1.18. The largest of those bets was $8,000 at $1.23, and there has also been two bets of $1,000 for Horn to win by KO at $2.40 and $2.25.
The Interdominion series gets underway in Perth on Friday night, and following on from an impressive win in the NZ Cup last week, Lazarus is now a firm $2.60 to win the final on December 8. Smolda scored an upset victory in last year's final, but he is now retired, and most would agree that Lazarus is the best pacer going around, it will only be the tight Gloucester Park circuit which may bring him down. Lennytheshark and Soho Tribeca share the second line of betting at $4.80, just ahead of Chicago Bull at $6.00, and there are plenty who think that Soho Tribeca or Chicago Bull can win the final for the locals in WA. The markets are open for the three heats on Friday night, and while there are two hot favourites in the second and third heats, the first creates plenty of interest. Soho Tribeca has drawn perfectly in barrier 2 and there has been early money for him ($2.20-$1.80) after Lazarus ($1.65-$2.00) drew awkwardly in barrier 9.
The market to win the final will be updated after Friday night's heats.
Tip: Interdominion Heat - Soho Tribeca
Boxes win finals and Aston Dee Bee was elevated to a clear $2.50 to win the Melbourne Cup on Friday night after coming up with the inside box after the draw on Sunday. The Melbourne Cup is the richest greyhound race in the world, and Aston Dee Bee set the time standard (29.12) when winning his heat from box 3. This is probably one of the best Cup fields ever assembled, and there is an abundance of pace in the race, so the run into the first turn will be very important, and the red runner has the box to capitalize on that. Bewildering, a kennel-mate of the favourite in the Seona Thompson kennel, is second pick at $3.75, and while he is recognised as the fastest dog in Australia, his draw in box 5 is not ideal.
The 'Bold Trease' over the distance trip will also be held on the same programme, and $2.00 favourite Fanta Bale only has to run a place to top the $1 million mark in stake-money won. There is no doubt she is a champion, but up-and-comer Rockoon ( $3.50) may be able to put enough pressure on early for the race to be run to suit Ebby Ripper, currently a $6.00 chance.
Tip: Cup - Aston Dee Bee
Tip: The Bold Trease - Ebby Ripper
After recording rousing victories in Week 11 of competition, New England and Philadelphia remain glued to the top of the Superbowl 52 odds board at $4.00 and $5.00 respectively. Both squads are going great guns and fully deserve their positions in futures markets, but the question must be asked - are the UBET bookies perhaps overlooking the claims of another title contender? New Orleans has reeled off eight straight wins, including a championship-calibre, back-from-the-brink victory over the Chiefs on Monday just gone. Down and out on the scoreboard with less than five minutes on the clock, the Drew Brees-led team reeled off 15 unanswered points before booting the game winning field goal in extra time. It was a win of top quality and the $10 still available about the Saints may well be overs.
* Prices are correct 1pm Thursday.