GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 17TH NOVEMBER
The Jeff Horn v Gary Corcoran WBO Welterweight title fight is only a month away, and while it clearly hasn't been grabbing the headlines like the Pacquiao fight that is set to change in the coming weeks. There is already an interesting early betting trend with the visitor being backed from $5.50 into the current price of $4.10, and he has attracted four times as many bets as Horn has to date. That stat can be a little misleading however due to the huge number of upsets in boxing (remember Jeff Horn's last start?), the trend we have seen here is a regular occurrence. Horn is $2.40 to win by KO, and the same quote to win by decision.
The Ashes series opener is now less than a week away, and it seems as though Aussie cricket fans can only see an Australian win, and possibly a clean sweep again. Australia are $1.72 to win the first test ahead of England at $3.75, with a little bit of money for the draw this week seeing that price move in from $5.50 to $4.75. There is always a possibility of storm activity around Brisbane at this time of the year, but at the moment the long range weather forecasts don't look that bad. As expected, there is some serious business coming through on series betting where Australia are now $1.40 to win the Ashes with England at $4.25 and a Drawn Series at $9.00. Money continues to pour in for Australia to clean sweep the series 5-0 (like last time), and that price is currently at $7.50 after opening at $11.00. The 3-1 and 4-1 wins to Australia are the current favourite options at $6.00, with the most popular option for England being 3-1 at $17.
All of the wickets/runs markets are open for the series, as well as the 'Player of the Series'. Steve Smith, Dave Warner and Mitchell Starc head the betting there with the push being for Smith, but there has also been good support for Josh Hazelwood ($11) and Pat Cummins ($13). No doubt the thought process there being that we (Australia) will skittle the English batting attack for the series!
Tip: Australia to win the first test ($1.72)
The DP World Tour Championship will wrap up the European Tour in Dubai this week. Justin Rose is the form player, and clear favourite at $7.50 ahead of the Spanish pair, Sergio Garcia and Jon Rahm at $13. Sergio is heading our way to play at Royal Pines in a couple of weeks' time, and there has been early support for him in Dubai. Matthew Fitzpatrick won this event last year and is high up the betting order at $17, as is the in-form Tyrrell Hatton at the same price. Hatton has had a great year and did finish second to Fitzpatrick last year.
The US Tour event for the week is the RSM Classic, and Kevin Kisner, winner in 2015, heads that particular market at $19 from Brian Harman and Matt Kuchar at $21. There are only four Aussies in the field with Aaron Baddeley and Cameron Percy the $2.75 equal favourite's in the 'Top Aussie' market, with both long odds at $151 to win the major trophy.
A big plunge was landed last Saturday night when the Wallabies defeated Wales, and while the recent form of Australia has been very good, we will get an opportunity on Saturday night to find out exactly where we sit compared to the European sides. England awaits us, and currently have a terrific record, being undefeated at home in their last 13 matches, and that has been over a two year period. UBET rugby fans think that the impressive record the Poms have put together will remain intact as practically all of the early money has been for England at $1.42. The only interest in the Wallabies has been with the line start of 7.5 points.
Scotland have never beaten New Zealand in 30 attempts, and while the Scots have strung together six wins in a row at home, they face a daunting task at Murrayfield on Saturday. Scotland are $10 to win (no takers with the All Blacks at $1.05), and the early push at the line of -22.5 has been for the All Blacks.
Tip: Australia +7.5 against England ($1.80)
It won't be long before the best tennis players in the world grace our shores in preparation for the Australian Open. It's still not confirmed whether or not Serena Williams will be heading down under, but she is the $5.00 favourite to win the women's title ahead of Garbine Muguruza at $7.00. Our very own Ash Barty has had a fantastic 2017, and has generated great interest to win the title having been backed from $101 in to $26.
Rafael Nadal had to withdraw from the season ending World Tour Finals in London this week, and he may not be seen again until the Brisbane International, which will be of some concern to those who have backed Nadal to win the men's title in Melbourne. Nadal is currently the $3.70 equal favourite with Roger Federer, then we have Novak Djokovic ($5.00) and Andy Murray ($7.00), both of whom have been on the sidelines due to injury. For that reason the betting on the men's title has been quiet, and there is a wider spread of bets than we would normally see. Alexander Zverev ($13), Nick Kyrgios ($26), Milos Raonic ($34) and Grigor Dimitrov ($41) are a few that fall into that category.
Philadelphia has been a gold mine for punters this season, not just head-to-head, but at the line. There's every chance they'll be adding to their backers' bankrolls this week too. Fresh off a bye and on a six game line covering streak, which by the way, is the longest in the league. The Eagles are currently trading at $1.54 to crush $2.50 outsiders the Cowboys in Dallas. Unsurprisingly, there are more than a few early takers for the 'Birds' at -3, which has already been bet down from $1.90 to $1.81. Multi punters are also steaming into the Saints to topple the Chiefs at $1.20. New Orleans has been quietly going about their business this season, racking up win after win. They've dispelled any lingering doubts about their leaky defence and a victory over Kansas City would be their eighth in a row.
Tip: Philidelphia -3.0 v Dallas ($1.81)
Jerome Randle's return is the big story this week in the domestic league and his timing couldn't be any better for the team he's coming to, the struggling Sydney Kings. Voted the competition MVP last season when he was plying his trade with the Adelaide 36ers. The American import will be available for both of the cellar dwellers' Round 7 fixtures. Basketball punters seem to think he'll make an immediate impact as there's been some early interest in the Kings at $2.15 to upset the Hawks on Thursday and there is also plenty of interest in the Kings to beat Adelaide on Saturday night at $2.45. The weird results continued last week and that has seen some major changes to the outright market. Melbourne have drifted to $3.50, narrowly ahead of the rampant NZ Breakers and Perth at $4.00, with Adelaide next in line at $7.50. The price for the Kings has halved from $26 to $13 on the expectation Randle will make a huge difference.
Tip: Perth -3.5 to beat Brisbane ($1.90)
The Melbourne Cup is the richest greyhound race in the world, and the heats will be run at Sandown on Friday night with the big final on Friday week. Note that is a shift away from the normal Thursday night fixture for Sandown. There will also be four heats of the Bold Trease over the distance trip, and naturally Fanta Bale is expected to dominate again hence her price of $2.10 to win the final. Burn One Down has been retired so that is a major danger gone for Fanta Bale, but Rokoon ($4.80) holds plenty of interest at his first distance campaign.
Seona Thompson doesn't have a big team of greyhounds (19 only), but her kennel holds the key to the Melbourne Cup as she has the first three in the market, Aston Dee Bee ($9.50), Bewildering ($9.50) and Big Flood at $11, but all have to overcome awkward draws to make it to next week's final.
This week we also have heats of the Ipswich Cup on Saturday night and the Strathalbyn Cup on Sunday night, with markets up on those already.
Tip: Melbourne Cup (All In) 24/11 - Aston Dee Bee ($9.50)
Australia have made their way through the Pool stage of the World Cup pretty much intact, but oddly the price for them to win the final is the best it has been for 3 months. Australia spent the past 3 weeks at $1.16 but are out to $1.22 as experts start to talk up the chances of Tonga. We did mention that Tonga were $101 in the opening markets but some serious (and controversial) additions to their side saw them backed into $17 before the Cup started. On the back of a terrific win over New Zealand last week, Tonga now share the 2nd line at $9.00 with England, and the Kiwi's are out to $10.
The Kangaroos will be in action first up this week when they play Samoa in Darwin on Friday night. The conditions will be oppressive, not ideal, but the Aussies have been confidently backed to cover a line of -32.5. The prices suggest all 4 favourites should win, and easily, but we have found plenty of money for PNG to beat England at $5.35, and also to get within the line of 16 points.
Tip: PNG +12.5 against England ($1.90)
* Prices are correct 3pm Thursday.