GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 9TH NOVEMBER
The Nedbank Challenge is always a good watch on the European Tour each year, mainly due to the backdrop at the Sun City Venue. The field for the Nedbank has fallen away somewhat over recent years, but there is a bit of depth this week. In-form Tyrrell Hatton is the UBET favourite at $15 ahead of a couple of local hopes, Louis Oosthuizen and Branden Grace both at $17. Alex Noren won last year and he is well up in the order at $23, while Scott Hend is the shortest of the 3 Aussies in the field at $126.
Rickie Fowler has been a firmer to win the OHL Classic on the US Tour. This event is played at Mayakoba in Mexico, and for that reason most of the big names will be missing again. Fowler opened at $12 but was quickly backed in to $10, and he is ahead of Pat Perez ($17) who is the defending champion. Perez defeated Gary Woodland last year and Woodland is also well in the betting at $23. Aaron Baddeley has been thereabouts recently, and is $2.45 to be the 'Top Aussie', and $81 to win the major prize.
Tip: Branden Grace to win the Nedbank Challenge ($17)
Lewis Hamilton already has the Drivers Title in his keeping, so only pride is at stake in the Brazilian GP this week, the second last race for the season. Pride seems to be a big thing in sport, so Hamilton is the $2.00 favourite to grab the major prize in Sao Paulo, but there is plenty of interest in a few others. Sebastian Vettel is the second fav at $4.00, but Max Verstappen ($5.00) and Daniel Ricciardo ($6.00) have also been extremely popular. Verstappen has won two of the last three races held, so the support for him is understandable while Ricciardo's car has been good in the practise sessions but has had engine issues in several races recently. Hamilton won in Brazil last year, the only time he has won here while Vettel is a two time winner in 2010 and 2013.
Tip: Max Verstappen to win Brazilian GP ($5.00)
Jamie Whincup got a little bit of breathing space at the head of the Supercars Drivers Championship after winning the second race in New Zealand on Sunday. Whincup leads the points race on 2850 ahead of Scott McLaughlin on 2820, and while Fabian Coulthard (2674) can mathematically still get there, it is highly unlikely. With one meeting to go in Newcastle in two weeks' time Whincup is $1.55 with McLaughlin at $2.40. Race 1 for Newcastle is open and that duo head the betting at $3.50. It will be a very interesting race where tactics will be vital.
It seems we are not really any closer to knowing the Australian line-up in the first Ashes test, but UBET punters aren't perturbed by that, they can only see an Aussie win. The GABBA test gets under way in two weeks and Australia have moved in again, currently at $1.70. England are solid enough at $3.35 with the draw being the drifter, $4.75 out to $5.50. While there can be a lot of storm activity around Brisbane at that time of the year, the long range weather forecast is for clear skies...at this stage.
Australia are still red hot $1.42 shots to win the series, and we have opened a most runs and wickets market for the Aussies as well. Not many surprises there with Steve Smith $2.50 to top the runs, ahead of Dave Warner at $2.75. Mitch Starc is coming off a double hat-trick in the Sheffield Shield and is $2.75 to top the wicket haul.
There is always something worth mentioning in the AFL, and this week it is a move for Geelong to win the 2018 flag. The Cats were $11 following Richmond's win this year, but there is an air of confidence down in the Catland, so much so that they have been backed from $11 in to $8.50. Without doubt the signing of Gary Ablett had something to do with that, so Geelong fans must think (or hope) that he will be injury free in 2018. What is interesting is that there has been twice as much placed on Geelong than there has been for the two favourites, Adelaide and Sydney (both $5.50). There has also been three times as much for Richmond and Port Adelaide as we reported recently.
Cooper Cronk has created a fair amount of discussion since Grand Final night, and now that he has committed to the Roosters next season, they are the new premiership favourites. The Roosters were $7.00 to win the 2018 comp prior to the Grand Final, but have been backed in to clear favourites at $5.00, clearly ahead of Melbourne and North Queensland at $6.50. Penrith have also toughened up, $13 into $11 on the back of the Matt Moylan/ James Maloney swap.
This weekend is the final of the pool games of the World Cup, and there hasn't been a lot of change to the overall market. Australia are $1.16, ahead of New Zealand at $8.00 and then England along with Tonga at $13. So there is plenty at stake when the Kiwi's play Tonga on Saturday, and for the first time this campaign, punters have deserted Tonga. New Zealand have already been $1.40 in to $1.35 with the line moving from -7.5 out to -8.5. Most of the upcoming round of matches appear very one sided, so that has created renewed interest in most of the lines. There has been a good push for Australia to cover the 43.5 line over Lebanon, the same for Samoa (-34.5) against Scotland, and again for the PNG at -58 against the USA. The only 'plus' line that has attracted any decent interest has been France at +35.5 against England, and that line has come in a point.
Tip: World Cup - Italy +22.5 v Fiji ($1.85)
The Sydney Kings are in a world of pain at the moment, and that situation doesn't look like improving this week. The Kings were easily beaten by Illawarra last week, their second big loss for the weekend, and travel to Melbourne as $4.00 outsiders (or +8.0) against Melbourne on Saturday. Sydney were expected to be a force this season but they are now the $26 outsiders to win the title, and that is probably under the odds. Melbourne are right in the mix in title betting at $3.25 but have been overtaken by a rampant Perth Wildcats who are now $2.75. Perth have an away/home double against the NZ Breakers this week beginning with tonight's (Thursday) match in New Zealand. The Breakers are slight favourite here at $1.80 but the early money is with Perth, and in the re-match on Sunday in the West, Perth are currently $1.38.
Tip: Perth to beat NZ on Thursday ($2.00)
Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz is having one hell of a sophomore season - like an MVP-calibre one! Not only does he lead the comp in touchdown passes with 23, he owns a league-best passer rating of 125.1 and league-best third down conversion rate, striking at an incredible 49% in clutch situations. Needless to say, his 'Birds' are trimming up quick for the Superbowl 52 title. $41 with UBET first call, Philadelphia's now $6.00 to win it all on the back of a league-leading 8-1 record, with only 'Handsome Tom' and his Pats ahead of them at $4.50. Mercifully for our fixed odds team, less than 20 punters found the Eagles at their top futures price, including one bet of $50 to win $2,050. Speaking of New England, they line up against the battered and bruised Broncos in the Sunday Night Football feature, which, of course, kicks off at 11:30am on Monday our time. Our market framers have the Pats 7.5-point $1.30 road favourites here, but the early money trail suggests we should have gone wider with the line as the 'smarties' are all over the minus.
Rekindling goes into the record books as the 2017 Melbourne Cup winner, and given he is only a 3yo, if he stays fit, we might see Rekindling run in several more cups in years to come. It was strange on Tuesday (race day) that although well up in the betting at $13, Rekindling, along with Max Dynamite and Thomas Hobson, became the 'forgotten' horses of the race. Marmelo was a huge 'go', $8 in to $6.50 in the hours leading into the race, along with Almandin, Red Cardinal, and most of the outsiders, particularly Single Gaze. While all of this was going on, Rekindling got from $15 out to $17 before coming into $15 just before the jump. One Tasmanian customer left his run late but came away with the cash after placing $4,000 on Rekindling at $15 just before the starter let them go...a payout of $60,000.
So with that Cup over, we look forward, and the 2018 market is up and running, with punters able to get 1,2,3,4 placing's. There aren't any shocks, Rekindling is the $17 favourite (and already the most popular) ahead of Ace High ($19) which won the Derby last Saturday, and Johannes Vermeer ($21) who was gallant in defeat on Tuesday.
Tip: Folkswood to win Emirates Stakes ($5.50)