GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 2ND NOVEMBER
Most of the 'futures' markets are now open with UBET for next season, as well as the market to win the AFLW title. There are eight sides down to do battle in that comp with Adelaide and Melbourne heading the betting at $4.25.
There has already been a bit of activity around the final eight in the season proper with the two best backed sides so far being Essendon at $1.70 and Geelong at $1.50. We know Gary Ablett is heading back to Geelong but the Bombers have also recruited well and don't have to improve much on what we saw this season. The 'most losses' market, or in effect the wooden spoon, is heavily favoured to be coming to Queensland again with the Suns at $2.50 ahead of Brisbane and North Melbourne at $4.00.
The news that Chris Lynn is likely to be available for the entire Big Bash season has sparked plenty of interest in the Bulls. While the Perth Scorchers remain the $4.50 favourites ahead of the Melbourne Renegades at $5.50. The Heat are now in to $6.50 after opening at $9.00, and will prove mighty hard to beat if Lynn can remain fit to stand alongside another powerhouse in Brendan McCullum.
The Ashes first test at the GABBA is only three weeks away, and while there is still a lot of talk about who will be in the Australian side, punters clearly think that the Aussies will win the first test, and the series. Australia are $1.75 and best backed in the test, with England at $3.50 and the draw at $4.75. In Series betting, Australia continue to firm, now a $1.42 chance ahead of England at $4.00 and a drawn series at $9.00. There are a couple of player markets already open for the Poms where Joe Root is $2.50 favourite to top their runs total, while Jimmy Anderson is the same quote to snare the most wickets.
Justin Rose came from six shots behind Dustin Johnson to win in China last week, and Rose along with Henrik Stenson share $9.00 favouritism to win the Turkish Open this week on the European Tour. Thorbjorn Olensen won last year and is a $41 chance, while two-time winner Victor Dubuisson (2013,2015) is $51.
The Shriners Hospital Open is the US PGA Tour event, and with practically all of the big names missing, Tony Finau is the $17 favourite with UBET ahead of Patrick Cantlay at $19. Australian Rod Pampling won last year as a big outsider and he is again, currently on the $151 line.
Tip: PGA Tour - Ryan Moore ($31)
The last meeting of the season will be held in Qatar this weekend, and with Jonathon Rea already having the title wrapped up, it will be interesting to see what transpires in the two races. Rea won both races held in Spain recently, so he will be nominal favourite when the markets go up, but Chaz Davies has been breathing down his neck in most of the races held over the past few months and did win the two races held in Qatar last year.
Tip: Chaz Davies to win Race 1
It is tight at the top of the Supercars Drivers Championship, and with only two meetings remaining, there is a lot at stake in each and every race.
The action moves to Pukekohe just outside of Auckland, New Zealand this week, and the format has changed his year. There will only be two races held, one on Saturday with the other on Sunday, and each will be of 70 laps. Jamie Whincup heads the title but is not the favourite in race 1 on Saturday with that honour going to Scott McLaughlin at $3.75.
Whincup is next in line along with Shane Van Gisbergen at $4.25, and that trio are followed by Chaz Mostert and Fabian Coulthard at $7.50. McLaughlin and Mostert won the two races at the Gold Coast a fortnight ago but that was a team's event and a completely different course to this week. Looking back at the results from Pukekohe over the past two years shows us that Whincup loves the course, two wins from four races last year (and a second), and he won two from three (and a second) in 2015, but all of those races were half or less than half the distance of the races this week. Race 2 will open Saturday night after race 1 is decided.
Tip: Shane Van Gisbergen to win race 1 ($4.25)
Australia have won all four rugby matches played against Japan. The last time the Wallabies played in Japan was way back in 2007, and they came away with a massive victory, winning 91-3.
While Japanese Rugby has clearly improved in that time, and the Wallabies have racked up two wins over the past couple of weeks, they are $1.02 to win in Japan on Saturday afternoon. However, there has been some early money for Japan with 27.5 points start.
The Barbarians have lost their last two games against England and Australia, but the loss to the Wallabies was only by three points. The Barbarians have only won twice from 10 starts against New Zealand including the last time they played in 2009. While the Barbarians are $10 to beat the All Blacks this week, there has been a constant stream of bets for them with 24.5 points start.
Tip: Barbarians +24.5 ($1.90)
Italy's loss to Ireland was the only upset in the first round of RLWC matches, with most of the winning favourites also covering their lines, and easily! Lebanon landed a huge plunge ($2.25-$1.60) when they accounted for France in one of the best betting games.
It doesn't get much easier for France this week, as the $51 pops have to take on the Kangaroos on Friday night in Canberra. The French are in receipt of a whopping 55.5 point start and although Australia will have a few new faces in their side, punters expect them to cover that line.
Samoa v Tonga should be an interesting clash but league fans are happy to stick with Tonga again. They are $1.22 to win the match but the big push has been at -12.5.
There is no sign of Winx this Saturday, but although the champion mare will be at home in her stable, there will be plenty of stars in action at Flemington as Cup Day approaches Tuesday.
The Derby has been knocked around a bit with Royal Symphony and Cliffs Edge, the equal favourites, ruled out last Monday. Ace High is now the firming $4.60 favourite ahead of Main Stage ($6.00) which is part owned by AFL star Dustin Martin who has won everything on the field this year, so we will see how he goes at the track! Weather With You has held its place in the market at $8.00 and looks hard to beat after an impressive win at Geelong last start.
The Coolmore has drawn together a fabulous field of 20 sprinters, and punters are having trouble sorting this one out. In a wide-open affair, Viridine heads the market at $7.50 but there have been a host of horses backed. One in particular is Eptimum, an impressive winner at the Valley last Saturday. Many would be surprised that Eptimum at $9.00 is inside the price of stablemate Houtzen ($11), and has attracted a lot more bets.
Humidor remains Melbourne Cup fav at $6.50 ahead of Almandin ($7.50) and Marmelo ($8.50). The market will be fully updated after the barrier draw on Saturday night.
Tip: Weather With You to win the Victoria Derby ($7.50)
Basketball betting continues to blossom here in Australia with NBA holds well up on last year, largely on the back of the blanket coverage around young Aussie sensation Ben Simmons. Punters are really getting into the domestic competition too and, to highlight this, UBET has laid a couple of handy $6,000 single bets on tonight's NBL Round 5 openers. One punter has chimed in with $6,000 on the Breakers-36ers game to over 176.5 points total at $1.90, while another has wagered the same amount on the Under 166.5 coming up in United-Taipans fixture.
Speaking of New Zealand, they're arguably the surprise packets of the season thus far, streaking to a 4-1 record on the back of a clinical offense. Our bookies had the Breakers as despised $17 outsiders for the Championship before the season opener, but that price is long gone. New Zealand has firmed to $9.00 and may need another trim soon as some of the brightest basketball punters on our books have backed them for bundles at big odds.
Round 5 opens with an absolute belter between the number one and number two teams in the competition. Reigning premiers Sydney FC will be out to extend their unbeaten streak against a red-hot Melbourne City side, who's also unbeaten through the first four weeks of play. Sydney has won their past three encounters between these two, including an FFA Cup Quarter Final, and go in as pronounced $2.10 favourites, but the betting suggests the 'Big Blue' won't get it all their own way. Money has come thick and fast for Melbourne City this week at $3.30 and there's also been an early look at the Draw at $3.55. Maybe this is the week Sydney finally tastes defeat?
* Prices are correct 4pm Thursday.