GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 19TH OCTOBER
The Caulfield Cup this week looks nothing like it did seven days ago. The Japanese import Admire Deus was vying for favouritism with Kiwi mare Bonneval, and Johannes Vermeer had hardly raised a mention and was a $34 chance. However in that time, sadly Admire Deus has suffered a bad injury which has him fighting for his life, after an inglorious effort at Caulfield last Saturday, Bonneval is now out to an unwanted $8.50. As concerns are raised over her fitness, and Johannes Vermeer is now the clear $4.20 favourite after a fast closing second to Gailo Chop on Saturday. Over 40% of the money since the final field was known has been for the import, which has seen his price cut from $8.00 on Tuesday to the current quote of $4.20. Darren Weir has lost Admire Deus from the race but still has two live chances in Amelie's Star ($8.00) and Humidor ($9.00). UBET punters have been chipping away at a few in the market outside of the favourites, namely Jon Snow ($15 in to $11), Marmello ($21 in to $17) and Lord Fandango ($26 in to $19). Naturally the result of the Caulfield Cup will have a significant bearing on the Melbourne Cup, and the big one will re-open as soon as the Caulfield Cup has been run.
Tip: Johannes Vermeer to win the Caulfield Cup ($4.20)
The broken collarbone suffered by Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers on the weekend has seen the price for the Packers to win the Superbowl blow like the north wind. Prior to the injury, Green Bay were on the third line of betting at $7.50, but have more than doubled their price to be currently $17, and there are no takers. It was another week of huge upsets in the NFL with the previously unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs going down to the Steelers 19-13, while the Denver Broncos were beaten in the Monday night game, going down 23-10 to the NY Giants. It is commonplace to see five figure bets come in on the NFL each week, and there was a bet of $50,000 placed on Denver at $1.12. The New England Patriots have lost a couple of games this season but remain the $5.00 favourite to win the Superbowl.
Tip: Carolina Panthers -3.0 against the bears ($1.85)
The new NBA season got under way on Wednesday Australian time, so it would be timely to point out again that UBET offer a live service on every NBA game whether they are televised or not. There hasn't been a terrible lot of movement in title betting with the Golden State Warriors having a stranglehold on that market at $1.62 for several weeks but there has been a push for Cleveland in the days leading up to the first matches including one bet of $1,600 at $6.00. Outside of that pair, the only other team to meet with any decent support has been OKC Thunder at $15.
Closer to home, the Sydney Kings got a win on Sunday after losing their two opening matches of the season, but it has come at a decent cost. The Kings were always in control when they defeated Illawarra 103-87, but import Kevin Lisch will be out for at least eight weeks with a torn calf muscle, and that is a big loss. The Kings are out to $9.00 to win the title now, and unless they replace Lisch with another import, it is hard to see them gathering any support at the moment. Melbourne belittled Adelaide in Adelaide on Saturday night, winning by 20 points, and are now in to $2.75 to take the title.
Tip: Cairns $2.05 to beat Brisbane
Spaniards Jon Rahm ($5.50) and Sergio Garcia ($6.00) head the markets for the Andalucía Valderarama Masters to be played in Spain this week, and not surprisingly that pair are at the forefront of most of the betting business after both have had a terrific 2017. This event hasn't been played for six years, and ironically the last time it was played in 2011, Sergio Garcia was the winner!
The US PGA Tour will again be in Asia for the co-sanctioned CJ Cup to be played at Nine Bridges on Jetu Island in South Korea. This will be the inaugural running of this event, and while it will be played in a part of the world which has been surrounded by political problems recently, there has been a very good field assembled. Justin Thomas is UBET's favourite at $8.50 ahead of Paul Casey and Jason Day at $13, and both of those players have proven quite popular in early betting. Along with Day, Marc Leishman ($21), Adam Scott ($29) and Cameron Smith ($34) are well up in the betting, with plenty of interest shown in Smith who wasn't far away last week in Kuala Lumpur.
Tip: Andy Sullivan each way at in European Tour ($41)
Lewis Hamilton has won five of the last seven GP's that have been run and won. With the USA GP on this week in Austin, Texas and looking at his record in America it is hard to work out why he isn't shorter than the $1.80 currently on offer. There was no USA GP in the years 2008-2011, but Hamilton won in 2007 and has won four of the subsequent five races, a fantastic record. Sebastian Vettel broke that sequence in 2013, and he is the $3.25 second elect to win this week, with Valtteri Bottas next in line at $7.00. Daniel Ricciardo finished on the podium in Japan at his last start, and he is currently a $13 pop.
Tip: Hamilton to win the US GP ($1.80)
Andrea Dovizioso kept the motoGP riders championship alive in wild conditions last week in Japan, and he has closed the gap to only 11 points behind leader Marc Marquez. Dovizioso is $4.50 to win the title with Marquez at $1.16, so the race at Phillip Island in Victoria this week takes on added importance. Phillip Island is built for speed, but there is always a chance of weather similar to what we saw in Japan which played havoc with several of the major chances. Marquez failed to finish last year but won here in 2015 and has opened as the $2.00 favourite ahead of Dovizioso at $5.00. Valentino Rossi won in 2014 and is on the next line at $7.50 even though he was one of the casualties who fell in Japan. Last year's winner Cal Crutchlow is a $15 chance as he hasn't been able to recapture that form this season, and Townsville youngster Jack Miller is at $26. Miller has been recovering from a broken leg which occurred a few weeks ago, but he claims he will won't suffer any effects from that.
Tip: Marc Marquez to win the Australian Grand Prix
Jerez in Spain will host the Superbikes this week which will be the second last meeting of the season. Jonathan Rea had the title wrapped up several weeks ago, and although Rea won the first race in France the last time they raced, it has become apparent that he has taken his hands off the accelerator to some degree. Chaz Davies won race 2 in France and has won three of the last four races conducted in Jerez, so in all likelihood there won't be much separating the pair when the market opens.
The safety car normally gets a decent work out during the Gold Coast 600, and the way the weather has been in South East Queensland this week, we can expect more of the same on Saturday and Sunday. Rain is expected on Saturday for race 1, and Sunday is tipped to be overcast with a possibility of showers. The Gold Coast track is one of the tightest in the world, and as has been mentioned in the past, it is imperative that drivers get a good grid position as it is near on impossible to come from back in the field. This weekend will be the last of the three meetings run as a team events, so again two drivers for each car. There has already been a stack of action for a few of the cars in race 1, primarily the two favourites (Cars 88 and 17), and also Car 97. The combo of Whincup/Dumbrell (Car 88) failed to feature at Bathurst, but this is a completely different ball game. Punters have been eager to take the $3.50 as they won race 2 on the Coast last year after finishing third in the opening event. Car 97 (Van Gisbergen/Campbell) won that opening race last year but on that occasion Van Gisbergen was partnered by Frenchman Alexandre Premat who this year will be with Scott McLauchlin in Car 17, the other $3.50 favourite. Shane Van Gisbergen has long been acknowledged as one of the best drivers in wet conditions, so if the rain comes, we can expect to see the $8.00 for him disappear.
Tip: Car 97 (Van Gisbergen/Campbell)
The final match in this year's Bledisloe Cup series will be played at Suncorp in Brisbane on Saturday night, and there is a bit of money around to suggest several think that the Wallabies can spring an upset. After opening at $5.50, the Wallabies are in to $4.50, with the line also moving a couple of points, currently 13.5 after being set at 15.5. The All Blacks are on a seven game winning streak over the Wallabies, and there have been plenty of points scored in the last three of those matches with the average of 66 points. Does that mean that the Aussies have a chance? Well, just maybe as in their last three matches on home soil they have scored on average 34 points, so maybe those who have taken the start are on the right track.
* Prices are correct 4pm Thursday.