GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 12TH OCTOBER
It seems as though AFL fans cannot wait for season 2018 to begin as we have done plenty of business on next year's flag. Adelaide and Sydney are $5.00 co-favourites, with Adelaide out from $4.50 after all of the internal drama's they have had there over the past week or so. The two best backed sides over the past week have been Richmond ($9.00 in to $8.00) and also Geelong at $10.00.
The Brownlow Medal has also met with plenty of support and one punter thinks that Dustin Martin is more than capable of going back to back. Martin is the second pick at $6.00 behind Patrick Dangerfield at $5.50, and this said punter has placed $1,000 on Martin to win and also $2,000 for a top two finish at $2.50.
Just like the AFL, there is already a stack of interest in next year's premiership, and of course, the upcoming World Cup.
The three sides that head the title market have been the best backed, those being Melbourne, the Roosters at $6.50, and then North Queensland at $7.00. Within hours of Billy Slater saying he would go around again next year, we saw a steady stream of bets come for the Storm. Most of the other futures bet types will open in the coming weeks.
The World Cup has been in the headlines with a couple of big names withdrawing from the Australian and New Zealand sides to play for Tonga. Prior to that Tonga were $101, settled at $34 and with an avalanche of support that price has halved to $17. Strangely, there has been more money for Tonga than either England ($8.50) or New Zealand ($9.00) who are second and third avourites respectively. Australia have shortened up from $1.50 in the opening market last year to be currently $1.20. There was one notable bet placed this week of $5,000 at the $1.20.
The opening match between Australia and England is still a couple of weeks away but the market is open. The Aussies are $1.14, England at $5.85 and the opening line set at 15.5.
Jon Rahm is the UBET favourite at $8.00 to win this week's Italian Open on the European Tour, and while Rahm has had a fabulous 12 months, punters have moved away from him this week. Italian Francesco Molinari won the open last year and is a solid second pick at $15 ahead of another in good form, Tyrell Hatton at $17 and Sergio Garcia at $19. There are seven Australians in the field but they are all at generous odds with the shortest of those being Jason Scrivener at $81.
The US Tour event will be played in Malaysia this week. The CIMB Classic is due to tee off in Kuala Lumpur on Thursday morning and they have a ready-made drawcard in Justin Thomas at $5.50. There has already been plenty of interest in Thomas, and apart from the stellar year that he has had so far, it is worth pointing out that he has won this event the past two years. Hideki Matsuyama finished second last year to Thomas and has been well supported at $9.00, as has Paul Casey at $13. There are only three Aussies in this field and Cameron Smith is the short way there at $41.
Tip: Francesco Molinari to win the Italian Open ($15)
Motegi, Japan will host the motoGP's this week, and that means that Phillip Island is only a week away.
Marc Marquez won the last race in Aragon, won in Japan last year, and has been installed as the $2.25 fav with UBET to win on Sunday. It all points towards Marquez maintain his strong recent form. Maverick Vinales is the second elect at $4.50 ahead of Valentino Rossi ($6.00) and Dani Pedrosa ($7.00).
Tip: Marquez to win the Japanese Grand Prix ($2.25)
Car 9 (Reynolds/Youlden) won another exciting Bathurst on Sunday, and while a lot of the public were suggesting it was a huge upset, that wasn't really the truth. The combo of Dave Reynolds and Luke Youlden were well up in the betting at $26 when the initial market opened after Sandown, and went into the start on Sunday well in commission at $11.
That now leaves just one meeting left in the Enduro series, and that will be at the Gold Coast next weekend. Two races will be held around the tight street circuit, and race 1 is already open. Punters launched straight into Car 88 (Whincup/Dumbrell) as soon as the market opened at $3.75 including one bet of $1,000, and that price came in marginally to $3.50.
Tip: Car 88 (Whincup/Dumbrell) to win the Gold Coast 600 race 1
This Saturday is arguably one of the best days of the Spring Racing Carnival with fantastic racing in both NSW and Victoria. The highly anticipated debut of the $10m Everest is at Randwick and there are four Group 1 races at Caulfield: the Thousand Guineas, the Caulfield Stakes, the Caulfield Guineas and the Toorak Handicap.
She Will Reign is slight favourite at $4.40 in the Everest market with UBET, Chautauqua and Vega Magic are both $5.00, Redzel is next at $8.50 and the only other one under double figures is Redkirk Warrior ($9.50). There has been plenty of money around for Chautauqua and 'the grey flash' has shortened from $6.00 in to $5.00 since yesterday, with one punter tossing $2,000 on at $6.00. The deserved favourite She Will Reign was ultra impressive at the Valley and has been trimmed from $4.60 in to $4.40. She looks the one to beat with the lightweight and proven ability against the older horses.
The Thousand Guineas looks a lay down misere for Alizee. The daughter of Sepoy is the current $2.10 favourite and shortened in from $2.20 yesterday. She has Group 1 form on the board and in a race with not much depth, looks a standout. Next best in the market is Shoals ($4.20) and Booker ($7.00) rounds out the top three.
The Caulfield Guineas for the three-year-olds is a far more open race and Catchy is taking on the boys, which is a tough assignment and she's drifted from $4.60 out to $4.80 since yesterday. The favourite in the race is the Domesday colt Royal Symphony ($4.00), Kementari is not far away ($5.00) but I think the value lies with Showtime ($12) after an impressive victory in the Stutt Stakes over the mile.
Tip: She Will Reign to win The Everest ($4.40)
The UBET Adelaide Cup will be run and won on Friday night at Angle Park, and what a field they have to run in the final! The Adelaide Cup has had some terrific winners down through the years, but this year's race must be seen as one of the very best, and the box draw has made it more intriguing.
Five of the eight finalists are trained in Victoria, but one of those, Worm Burner, started his career in SA and is still owned there, so it would be fair to call him a 'local hope'. Worm Burner is now trained in Pearcedale, Victoria, by Seona Thompson who also has Aston Dee Bee and Bewildering in the Cup. Bewildering is arguably the fastest dog in Australia having recently won the Speed Series at Sandown, and has been heavily backed from $3.50 in to $2.85 after winning his heat in the fastest time from the same draw (box 8). Bewildering is an exceptional sprinter but has been beaten before from wide draws as he doesn't have an abundance of early pace. Aston Dee Bee was also impressive running 29.60, has drawn well near the rails in Box 2 and has also firmed from $4.00 in to $3.50. Local champ Worn Burner was terrific in his 29.59 heat win and doesn't appear that badly drawn out in box 6. Worm Burner won the National Sprint Title at Angle Park last year and has an amazing record of 38 wins and 12 placings around the Angle Park circuit.
Tip: Bewildering to win race 8 at Angle Park ($2.80)
The betting on Saturday night's Victoria Cup at Melton took a dramatic turn when Lennytheshark came up with pole position. That barrier saw Lenny zoom in to $1.35 and it appears as though most concede he will step to the front and that will be 'race over'. Oddly enough, Lenny has drawn barrier one on five occasions for only one win, and that was in a weakish FFA at Melton. It would be fair to say that although this is the Victoria Cup, the final field is a few levels below what he has been racing against over the past few seasons. Tiger Tara ($18) is first up in the Cup, and is expected to end up in the death seat, while My Field Marshal has had some support at $9.00 but will need to use plenty of petrol to get into a striking spot. Whichever way you look at it, the Victoria Cup is Lennytheshark's race to lose.
Cairns burst from the blocks in Round 1 collecting two scalps and trimming up from $13 to $8.00 for the title. $3.25 hot pots Melbourne United also firmed up after their narrow win over the Adelaide 36ers. What was more impressive however, was the way Melbourne pushed a near full-strength OKC Thunder all the way in their gripping NBA preseason clash in the US a few days later. On that form, United can knock off anyone in the NBL when they turn up to play.
Friday night's New Zealand-Sydney clash looks a bottler on paper and the odds reflect this. At this stage, it's $1.90 each of two and there's money for both sides.
Early season surprises have been a dime a dozen and Week 5 was no different with the likes of the Patriots, Bills, Raiders and Cowboys all failing to cover and the Pittsburgh Steelers suffering their biggest home defeat in a decade. Another surprise has been the continuing good form of the Kansas City Chiefs. Actually - check that - good doesn't do them justice. Not only is Kansas 5-0 straight up, they're also a perfect 5-0 at the line, the only team in the NFL with such a record. Those who've stuck with the Chiefs should be rolling in dough.
Week 6 starts on Friday and smart punters are all over the Philadelphia Eagles at $2.55 to roll the $1.52 Carolina Panthers. Philly has also been popular with the 3.5 head start. There's also been a good push for the Lions at $2.90 to upset the Saints at $1.42 at home.
World Cup qualification always has its share of twists and turns, but the week we've witnessed has been something else! Australia finally got the job done against Syria on Tuesday night and then on Wednesday morning it was pandemonium to figure out who we'd be lining up against the in the next stage of qualification. In the end, the USA - yes the almighty USA! - ended up being bundled out of contention, and our next opponent was revealed as Honduras. That game is on the 7th of November and, as it stands, our Socceroos will go in as $3.40 outsiders. Honduras is $2.10 and the Draw $3.15 (market in normal time). Honduras are $1.85 to progress and Australia are slight outsiders at $1.93.
Closer to home, punters' pals Sydney FC picked up where the left off last season with a 1-0 win over Melbourne Victory in Week 1 of the A-League. As a result, their championship price came in for a trim from $3.75 to $3.00, which, to be honest, still looks well over the odds. Cross town rivals Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City clash in the marquee matchup in Week 2 with both clubs keen to collect bragging rights. Victory are narrow $2.25 favourites with the bookies ahead of City at $2.90, but the Draw at $3.65 is surprisingly the outcome football punters are keen on in early betting.