GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 5TH OCTOBER
RUGBY LEAGUE (review)
Melbourne Storm will go into the record books as the 2017 NRL title winners, and given they were favourites for the majority of the season, that would not have surprised many. The grand final itself was a fabulous betting event, as most of Australia got behind North Queensland in the hope that they could deliver a fairy-tale finish. However, injuries throughout the season as well as going into the game finally took their toll.
Now, it is time to look forward, and although next year's market has been open for over a month, there has been a heap of interest since the Grand Final. Melbourne are the $6.00 fav's ahead of North Queensland at $7.00, and nearly 80% of the early money has been split between that pair. The Roosters are next in line at $8.00, but with talk that Cooper Cronk might be heading there, we are beginning to see money arrive for them as well as Brisbane at $9.00. There will be a lot of player movement (and a couple of coaches as well!) in the coming weeks, so we will keep you posted on any market moves.
Richmond went into season 2017 as one of the outsiders at $67, and were still the underdogs in the Grand Final itself at $2.40 when the game started on Saturday. However, now that they have the Premiership Cup in their trophy cabinet, Tigers supporters think they can go back-to-back. Richmond are on the fourth line of betting at $9.00 to win in 2018, and there has been several thousand dollars invested on them since Saturday night. Adelaide and Sydney share top billing at $4.75 ahead of GWS at $6.00, then follows Richmond and Geelong at $10. All of those sides have attracted business already as the market has also been up for a month. Aside from those, Port Adelaide ($13) and Hawthorn ($21) are the other sides expected to be in the mix.
Dustin Martin won the Brownlow in a canter, and that was the beginning of one of the biggest weeks for any player in the history of the game. Patrick Dangerfield was out of Brownlow contention after being suspended, and while he still finished three votes in arrears of Martin, there were a few who thought he may have missed out on some votes due to his suspension. That is up for debate, but in any case Dangerfield has opened as the $5.50 fav for the 2018 Brownlow with UBET, just ahead of Martin at $6.00. There is already plenty of money for both, but also for Tom Mitchell ($13) after his stellar season, and Marcus Bontempelli ($17) who was well held this year.
The racing action is getting much more exciting as we lead in to Spring Champion Stakes day at Randwick on Saturday. The feature is race 7, a Group 1, set-weights race over 2000m for the three-years-olds. Last year's winner was Yankee Rose and this year we have the David Payne-trained Ace High as favourite for the race at $3.40, backed in from $3.50. Second favourite is Sanctioned ($4.20), followed by Tangled ($5.50), Astoria ($6.50) and Sully ($8.50). They all ran against each other two weeks ago in the Group 3 Gloaming stakes and that looks to be the best guide for the staying three-year olds. After watching the replay, it's clear that Ace High worked harder than Sanctioned (and the rest of the field) and still beat him home, so it's very hard to see the tables being turned here. There might be some value at $8.50 for Sully, as he made up good ground in the finish and was held up in the straight. Other good races on the big nine race card include the Roman Consul Stakes (Grp 2), also for the three-year-olds but over 1200m and the Angst Stakes (Grp 3) for the older mares.
Tip: Ace High to win the Spring Champion Stakes ($3.40)
Season 2017/8 kicks off this week and, even though no A-League team has ever won back-to-back premierships, football punters are queuing up to back Sydney FC for the title. Recently crowned the FFA Cup champions, the 'Big Blue' is currently $3.75 for the Premiership at UBET, which, with the benefit of hindsight, could very well turn out to be gross overs. Sydney only lost once last season during their all-conquering climb to the top and the addition of former Socceroos Luke Wilkshire and Alex Cisak surely strengthens their claims.
Melbourne Victory has, for the most part, got the band back together from last season with a few new international additions. On the second line of betting at $5.00, they're attracting nowhere near the support of their 2016/17 Grand Final opponents. Brisbane has been met with some support at $9.00, which may have something to do with their new imports. Serie A veteran Massimo Maccarone and French Ligue 1 star Eric Bautheac have signed on with the Roar, who could be this season's surprise packets. Markets for all the Week 1 games are open at ubet.com with Melbourne City and Brisbane the first cabs off the rank on Friday.
Tip: Melbourne Victory v Sydney to draw ($3.45)
Once again the F1's are on the quick back-up with the Suzuka International track in Japan being where the action will take place this Sunday.
Last weekend's race in Malaysia was interesting with Lewis Hamilton qualifying fastest, but he was unable to match it with Max Verstappen after Verstappen took the lead early on. Hamilton conceded after the race that his Mercedes couldn't match it with the Red Bull for speed throughout, so all of a sudden the title takes an interesting twist after it seemed all but over. Even this week's race is wide open with Hamilton at $2.20, Sebastian Vettel at $3.75, then follows Verstappen at $4.50 and Daniel Ricciardo at $6.00. Based on last week any of that quartet could win. It was hard to miss the performance of Vettel who came from the back of the grid to finish fourth, and he does have a terrific record in Japan with four wins. Hamilton is a 2 time winner in Japan, and also finished third behind Nico Rosberg last year.
Tip: Vettel to win the F1 Japanese Grand Prix ($2.70)
Bathurst is always a wonderful day's viewing, and as we have seen so often in the past, the race is rarely decided until the last lap. Last year we saw the closest finish ever when the combo of Davison/Webb in Car 19 staved of Van Gisbergen/Premat to win narrowly. Car 19 is one of only nine combinations who haven't changed for this year's race, and while well down in the betting at $19, plenty of UBET car racing fans think they can do it again. Car 88 (Whincup/Dumbrell) is another combination that hasn't changed, and that duo have had a lot of success in the Enduro races over the years. They are the well backed $4.50 equal favourites with Car 17 (McLaughlin/Premat), but there is the mandatory amount of support for Craig Lowndes who as we know is a multiple winner on the Mountain. Lowndes will again be paired up with Steve Richards in Car 888, and while there hasn't been any big bets placed on them as yet, they have attracted the most amount of individual bets for the race.
UBET have a host of bet types open on Bathurst, and there will be 'live' betting throughout the race on Sunday.
Tip: Bathurst 1000 - Car 97 Van Gisbergen/Campbell
The Presidents Cup turned out to be a one sided event as the betting suggested. The USA had a comprehensive win over the Internationals, but the good news for them is that the next Presidents Cup will be played in Melbourne in 2017, and that is where they recorded their only win in 2011.
The new US PGA season gets under way this week with the Safeway Open to be played at Silverado CC in Napa, California. Practically all of the big names are missing, and Tony Finau opens at $15 ahead of Phil Mickelson and Webb Simpson at $17. Brendan Steele ($34) is the defending champion and Matt Jones is the shortest of the Aussies ($81). On the European Tour, Rory McIlroy is top pick at $6.50 ahead of Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry at $21. Hatton won this event last year, while the 2015 winner Thorbjorn Olesen is a $34 chance. There are 16 Aussies in the field, with Scott Hend the shortest of those at $101, and Hend is $4.50 to be the best finish in the 'Top Aussie' group.
Tip: Safeway Open - Ryan Moore $26
The final round of the Rugby Championship will be decided this weekend, and it would be fair to say that the competition has hardly raised a murmur this year. South Africa host New Zealand first up, and the Springboks will be trying to restore some faith to their legion of fans after the 57-0 drubbing they suffered in NZ a few weeks ago. New Zealand are $1.13, with the line set at 14.5 points. While South Africa have scored only 28 points to the All Blacks' 155 in their last three games, the Springboks have only lost one of their last 11 at home.
Australia have won their last five matches against Argentina, and the Pumas have only won two of their last 16 (against Georgia and Japan). That is hardly an inspiring form line, but the Wallabies are on a five game losing streak away from home. They have opened pretty short here at $1.37 with the line set at 7 and the early money has been for the Wallabies conceding the start.
Tip: Argentina +7 against Australia ($1.90)
Week 4 was another good one for the bookies with several short priced favourites shown up by roughies. New England, Dallas, Oakland and Atlanta - four teams who were supposed to take all before them this season - all finished on the wrong side of the scoreboard and burned plenty of punters in the process. Despite this, only the Cowboys and Raiders eased in betting for Superbowl 52, out to $15 and $17 respectively. New England remains the $5.00 top elect for the Superbowl 52, but on what we've seen from their defensive line so far, should they be? For the first time since 2009, the Pats have given up at least 33-points in three of their opening four games, which is the worst record in the league. If they don't address their miscommunication issues and mental lapses, they certainly won't be hoisting the Vince Lombardi trophy.
Tip: Indianapolis Vs San Francisco ($1.77)
Melbourne United, recently crowned the NBL Blitz pre-season champions, is the only side attracting any serious title support on the eve of the 2017/18 NBL season. After going up $4.50 co-favourites with the Perth Wildcats, Melbourne has been steadily backed down to $3.00 outright favouritism by a swarm of hoops punters. Once again, the Cairns Taipans will start the year as despised outsiders with the bookies, although they do share the bottom line of betting at $15 with the New Zealand Breakers this season. Markets for all the Round 1 games are open for betting with action tipping off in Adelaide with $2.25 outsiders 36ers hosting United at $1.65. Friday night's Cairns-Illawarra clash is the closest of the round in terms of the odds, with hosts the Taipans trading at $1.85 and the visiting Hawks at $1.95.
Tip: Sydney Kings to beat Adelaide ($1.62)
* Prices are correct 4pm Thursday.