Gerard Daffy's Ubet News & Tips

GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 21ST SEPTEMBER

AFL

Geelong threw a spanner in the works with their 59 point thumping of Sydney last week, and there are plenty out there who think the Cats can oust flag favourites Adelaide this Friday night.

The Cats have a pretty good recent record against the Crows winning five of their last six meetings. This season it is a win apiece, Geelong won at home by 22 points in round 11 while Adelaide won by 21 in Adelaide in round 18. What does it all mean? Who knows, but if you subscribe to the theory that the Swans would have been a hope of beating Adelaide, then it is easy to understand the level of support for Geelong this week. In big betting finals it is rare to see a big move but on the back of attracting three times as much early business as Adelaide, Geelong are in to $2.80 after opening at $3.00.

Saturday's other prelim final is just as intriguing. Back in round 9 the Giants staggered home by three points against Richmond before the Tigers won (64-45) in a low scoring affair in round 18. The Giants were impressive last week but they travel to the MCG where their supporters have 1,600 of the 100,000 tickets available, and that has to count for something. The Tigers have come in marginally from $1.62 to $1.60, but the signs are there that they may well come in further. The Flag betting will open again Friday night, and the Grand Final market will be available as soon as the result is known on Saturday night.

The gloss has been taken off Monday night's Brownlow Medal count with Dustin Martin now a $1.07 pop after Paddy Dangerfield was suspended later in the season. There have been short priced favourites before (around the $1.50 mark), but nothing like this year, that price turns a lot of people away. However, we have noticed that there is already a lot more interest in all of the other markets available on the Brownlow, and that is expected to continue through to Monday's count. While there will be live betting with UBET on the outright winner, with Martin appearing to be unbeatable, we will have some other options available as well. Including the 'fav out' market, the last 8 rounds, and also some betting on selected matches each round as to who will get the 3 votes...so there is something there for everybody.

Tip: Geelong +17.5 against Adelaide ($1.91)
Market: https://ubet.com/sports/australian-rules/afl/afl-preliminary-finals/afl-pf1-adelaide-v-geelong-22-9

NRL

Despite the reappearance of Broncos' custodian Darius Boyd and potentially Cowboys' prop Matt Scott, the odds of another all-Queensland Grand Final showdown are lengthening by the day. In fact, if the betting in the lead up to the Preliminary Finals is a guide, only one Queensland-based team is any chance at all to waltz their way into the big dance. Indeed, our bookies are reporting strong early interest in the Cowboys to upset the Roosters, but next to no support for the Broncos to beat the Storm.

Both Queensland teams will go into their respective preliminary final as the rank underdog and betting suggests the Cowboys are the best chance to progress. A whopping 85 percent of the money wagered on the Melbourne-Brisbane game is for the Storm at $1.28 (in from $1.30), which, at this stage of the season, is about as overwhelming as it gets. The Broncos opened $3.50 and even touched $4.00 before punters decided they were value and they're now back in to $3.85. Despite this support at the $4.00, all the big money in this game has been for the Storm. However, it's a completely different story in the Roosters-Cowboys game, where almost 80 percent of the bets and 60 percent of the money is for outsiders North Queensland at $3.10. A fortnight ago, when they literally fell into the Finals, we had them $17 to make the Grand Final and $34 for the Premiership. Now, while a win over the 'Chooks' would be a huge upset in terms of the odds, the money trail says it's not just possible, it's likely.

Tip: Melbourne -9.5 against the Broncos ($1.85)
Market: https://ubet.com/sports/rugby-league/nrl/nrl-preliminary-finals/melbourne-storm-v-brisbane-broncos-22-9

NFL

Pantsed in Week 1 by the Kansas City Chiefs, Superbowl 52 favourites the New England Patriots bounced back in Week 2 with a big win over the New Orleans Saints. Naturally enough, the 36-20 demolition, in which quarterback Tom Brady threw three first quarter touchdowns, saw the Pats' futures price shrink from $5.50 to $5.00. Seattle held on to the second line at $9.00, albeit after an unconvincing 12-9 win over the 49ers, while Pittsburgh improved to $10 on a dominant 26-9 triumph over the Week 1 darlings the Minnesota Vikings. The biggest mover of the week, however, was the Denver Broncos, whose 42-17 annihilation of the well-fancied Dallas Cowboys saw them jump from $26 to $19 after briefly touching $34 a fortnight ago.

Week 3 looks a tough one to tip on paper but there are a couple of tit bits worth a mention. Sunday night's Jaguars-Ravens game is being played in London, England as part of the NFL's commitment to stage games in emerging markets and, for what it's worth, all of the Jaguars previous London games have gone over the total score. Also, the line in Eagles-Giants game has already blown from 3.5 to 6 points and shows no signs of slowing down. New York is 0-2 to start the season and is playing some seriously stinky football, so it's no surprise to see punters loading up on an Eagles cover there. Lastly, the Texans are massive 13-point road underdogs against the Patriots on Monday morning, which is the first time in a decade Houston has seen a double-digit plus.

Tip: Pittsburgh -7.0 against Chicago ($1.86)
Market: https://ubet.com/sports/american-football/nfl/nfl-week-3/chi-bears-v-pit-steelers-25-9

NBL

The NBL had their Blitz weekend a couple of weeks ago, and although that format doesn't mean too much in the overall scheme of things, it is a good opportunity for everyone to lay eyes on potential line-ups for the upcoming season. Round 1 of the new NBL season is only a few weeks away, but there has been plenty of interest in betting to win the title. Melbourne United are now the $3.25 public elects on the back of a few decent bets this week including $1,000 at $4.00 and another bet of $1,000 at $3.50. Perth are on the second line of betting at $4.50, just ahead of the Sydney Kings at $5.00, but there hasn't been much interest shown in either of those. The Brisbane Bullets looked impressive in Blitz weekend and there has been money for them at $9.00, and there has also been a push this week for Adelaide at $12. The first round of matches are already up and running at UBET.

CRICKET

Australia lost the first match in their best of 5 ODI Internationals against India last Sunday, but it was the weather which bought about that defeat. The second match will be played tonight (Thursday) in Kolkata and the betting is similar to what it was in the first match with India at $1.60 and the Aussies at $2.35. There will be live betting throughout.

We have had the Ashes series open for many months but the first Ashes test at the GABBA is also open now. Australia opened at $1.85 ahead of England at $3.25, with the draw at $4.50. Back on home soil it seems as though cricket fans expect Australia to win, as every bet this week has been for them at the $1.85.

Tip: ODI GAME 2- India to beat Australia ($1.60)
Market: https://ubet.com/sports/cricket/one-day-international/one-day-international-match/2nd-odi-india-v-australia-21-9

GOLF

The Tour Championship will round out the PGA Tour season this week, and with Marc Leishman winning the BMW and the improved showing by Jason Day in the same event, there is huge interest in this week's event in Georgia. The top 30 points scorers in the Fedex will tee off, and with Leishman currently sitting in fourth spot on the points table, there is a big chance he can grab the lucrative first prize. Although he practically led all the way to beat a similar field last week, he is still a good price at $19 this week, and not surprisingly there has been plenty of support for him. Day is shorter at $13 and has been backed, as has Rickie Fowler ($10) who finished in a tie for second behind Leishman last week, albeit five shots adrift of the winner. Rory McIlroy won this event last year but didn't have enough points to force his way into the field of 30 for this week.

The President's Cup will be on next week, and the Internationals have moved in to $4.00 (from $4.50) on the back of the form of Leishman and Day. The Internationals still face a big task however, as they have only won once from 11 attempts since the inception in 1994 and that was when the event was held in Melbourne in 1998.

Tip: Jason Day to win the Tour Championship ($13)
Market: https://ubet.com/sports/golf/pga-tour

MOTOGP

Marc Marquez was victorious in San Marino a couple of weeks ago, and he has been installed as a warm favourite to win the motoGP in Aragon this week. Maverick Vinales is on the second line of betting but as we highlighted recently, Vinales is not in the form that he was earlier in the season, and Valentino Rossi is still out with a broken leg. Andrea Dovizioso has been in good form and he is third pick ahead of Dani Pedrosa. If there is to be one improver this week it could be Jorge Lorenzo who has a terrific record in Aragon, finishing runner-up to Marquez last year and winning the previous two years.

SUPERCARS

Car 6 driven by Cameron Waters and Richie Stanaway burst on the scene in a big way by winning the Sandown 500 at the weekend. Car 6 was $41 pre-qualifying, and although they qualified fastest, $6 was still available up until the start of the race. The race was cut short by 36 laps after a crash on lap 1, but Waters and Stanaway proved they could mix it with the big boys, and that sets them up to be a major hope at Bathurst. UBET has opened the Bathurst market where Car 88 (Whincup/Dumbrell) is the $4.00 favourite. Car 6 has opened at $10 while the defending champs, the combo of Davison and Luff (Car 19) have opened at $19.00.

TENNIS

Australia were bundled out of the Davis Cup at the weekend so that now means France will play Belgium in the final late in November. The market is up to win the Cup, with France at $1.22 and Belgium at $4.25.

* Prices are correct 1pm Thursday.

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