GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 25TH AUGUST
The Mayweather/McGregor fight promises to be something else, and it certainly has lived up to that. The fight will be the biggest betting bout ever globally, and we are seeing the same at UBET, with betting set to overtake the recent Jeff Horn fight.
When betting opened a few months ago, Mayweather was $1.16 with McGregor at $6.00. That has changed vastly with Mayweather spending most of this week around $1.30 while McGregor has been around $3.50. Several five-figure bets have been placed on both with Mayweather drawing bets of $40,000 ($1.22), two of $30,000 ($1.25), two of $15,000 ($1.28) and several $10,000 ($1.30 and $1.31) bets. The ratio of bets has been running 20:1 in McGregor's favour with bets including $15,000 and $10,000 at $4.00 and another two of $10,000 at $3.50. The general consensus seems to be that if McGregor is to win it will be by KO, and some of the bets placed on that option this week have included $10,000 at $4.25 and $10,000 at $4.00.
We will be betting live throughout the fight.
Tip: Mayweather by KO
The three sides at the head of flag betting have cleared out from the rest, but it appears as though punters are just as confused as to who will win the big dance as we are. Adelaide head the market at $3.00 followed by Sydney and GWS at $4.00, but this week the side who has attracted the least attention has been the GWS. The Giants have a tough game in this week's final home-and-away match in Geelong. The Cats have turned Skilled Stadium into a fortress, but although the Giants were very scratchy last week, the early betting has seen them come in to $1.95 from an opening $2.00.
The Brisbane Lions looked to have the wooden spoon all sewn up a couple of months ago and were priced accordingly at $1.05. However, the much improved recent form by the Lions now means whichever side loses between them and North Melbourne on Saturday will 'win' the dreaded spoon. The Lions have turned things around, so much so that they have already been backed from $1.55 into $1.50 to beat North, who are completely unwanted.
Although next weekend will be a rest weekend, the first round of finals matches will be open as soon as we know the fixtures.
Tip: GWS to beat Geelong ($1.95)
On recent form, Brisbane appears best placed to challenge Melbourne for the 2017 title. League punters seem to see it this way too, as we continue to write premiership bets for the Broncos at $4.00. And, while we know how difficult it is to take out the title from outside the top four, the in-form Penrith Panthers have been a popular tip this week, $17 in to $12.
Round 25 continues tonight with North Queensland ($1.92) needing to arrest a worrying slide down the ladder with a win against Wests ($1.92). Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, the money trail suggests another loss is in the offing with cash coming in at a 2:1 ratio for the Tigers. Meanwhile, punters can't get enough on Melbourne ($1.16) at the shorts on Saturday. Crowned minor premiers last week, the Storm will go in white-hot, well-backed favourties against the lowly South Sydney Rabbitohs ($5.35). Cronulla is also being well backed at $1.78 to roll the Roosters at $2.05 and history is on punters' side. The Sharks have had the wood on the Chooks for a while now, not just winning but covering too and in all of their last six clashes.
Tip: Bulldogs to beat Gold Coast ($2.10)
What can we say about the Wallabies? Probably not a lot after last week, and the 20 point loss suffered by them was flattering in the end after the first half. Anyway, they get to do it all again in Dunedin on Saturday. Australia are the longest price they have ever been ($17) and getting the biggest line start ever which has been set at 27.5. They have been hammered in the press all week, and we, along with several UBET punters think they might perform better than they did last week. The $17 has a lot of bets underneath it, but a lot more have been keen on the +27.5, so here's hoping they are competitive.
Tip: Australia +27.5 against New Zealand ($1.90)
Like a fine wine, Roger Federer just keeps getting better with age and the evergreen legend has certainly been a hit with tennis punters in the lead up to the US Open. Play gets underway at Flushing Meadows this coming week and for the first time in a long time, the 'Fed Express' is the top elect for the fourth major at $2.40. Roger's old rival Rafa Nadal is on the second line at $3.50, followed by up-and-comer Alex Zverev at $7.50. An out of sorts Andy Murray is next at $9.00 trailed by temperamental Aussie Nick Kyriois at $15. Kyrios made it all the way to the final of the warm-up event, the Cincinnati Masters, last week and has been $21 in to $15 since.
By comparison, the women's draw is as wide open as the Sydney Heads. Garbine Muguruza broke through at Wimbledon earlier this year and is the $5.00 top elect, followed by Karolina Pliskova at $7.00 and perennial bridesmaid Simona Halep and Elina Svitolina, both at $10. Best backed, however, is Johanna Konta, who's been $14 in to $11 in the past fortnight alone.
After the player contracts have been sorted we will finally see the national side in action on Sunday in the first test in Bangladesh. Unfortunately the only lead up match to the test has been lost due to weather, so the Aussies will be going in with a very limited preparation together. The draw has been a firmer early in the week with bad weather around, and is currently $3.90 after being $4.40 on Monday. Australia have remained at $1.55 but UBET punters are treading cautiously, and there has been some interest in the home side at $5.75. Foxsports now have the rights to show the two test series so there will be live betting throughout.
Thomas Pieters won the Made In Denmark last year on the European Tour, and he is the $9.00 favourite to repeat the dose again this year. It is a pretty handy field this week and there has been a good spread of money, with popular players including Thorbjorn Olesen ($15), Bradley Dredge ($23), Paul Dunne ($29) and Thomas Detry ($41).
On the US Tour, Hideki Matsuyama is our $12 favourite to win the Northern Trust, narrowly ahead of Jordan Spieth ($13), Rickie Fowler ($15) and Dustin Johnson ($15). The field is full of quality with plenty coming in for Rory McIlroy ($17), Jason Day ($21) and recent PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas at $23. As you can see, it is virtually a 'Major' field. Aussies have a good record in this event with Jason Day winning in 2015 (and tied for 2nd in 2014) and Adam Scott also winning in 2013.
Tip: Speith to win The Northern Trust ($12)
Lewis Hamilton is a rock solid favourite to win the Belgium GP this week. After opening at $1.75, Hamilton has been backed in to $1.70, which has seen Sebastian Vettel drift slightly from $3.50 out to $3.75. Vettel won the last race in Hungary after qualifying fastest and that came on the back of Hamilton doing exactly the same thing in the British GP. Hamilton has form in Belgium with wins in 2010 and 2015 before the now retired Nico Rosberg won there last year. There has been decent money for Daniel Ricciardo at $17 and he is also a previous winner here, having won in 2014.
Tip: Hamilton to win the Belgian GP ($1.70)
The bikes will be in action at Silverstone this week for the British motoGP and with a few upsets in recent races we are seeing a spike in business this week. Andrea Dovizioso has ridden into form recently highlighted by a win in Austria, and has met with support at $9.00. Race favourite is Marc Marquez at $2.75 who finished second behind Dovizioso in Budapest. Maverick Vinales has dropped off the radar over the past few races but it is worth noting that he won this race last year which was the first time that he showed us all what he was capable of. Vinales is on the second line of betting at $4.00 with Valentino Rossi at $5.00.
The Quad series begins in Brisbane on the weekend with Australia playing England in the first match, and that will be followed by the Silver Ferns up against South Africa. Midweek matches will be played in Canberra and Auckland, with next weekend matches due to be played in Invercargill (NZ). Prices to win the outright will open Friday with match betting due to open on the morning of each match.
The UBET National titles will be decided at Albion Park, Queensland, on Friday night. The box draw has certainly opened both finals right up.
The Victorian pair of Bewildering and Aston Dee Bee drew out in boxes 7 and 8 respectively in the Sprint final. That just provides a little query as to whether they can avoid any trouble around the first turn. The Seona Thompson-trained pair trialled well at Albion Park last week, and there has been plenty of early money for both, with Aston Dee Bee firming from $3.50 in to $3.00.
The distance final will pit the two bets stayers in the world against each other, but the race doesn't end there. Those two I refer to, Fanta Bale and Burn One Down will be representing Victoria, and opened as equal favourites at $2.75. Fanta Bale is a multiple Group 1 winner and looks the likely leader, while Burn One Down will have to do it the hard way coming from back in the field. Local hope Outside Pass ($4.50) has been terrific in winning both of her only starts over the longer trip. For those looking for some value, Ebby Ripper ($13) is definitely the one. She gets back but has raced well at Albion Park in the past.
Albion Park Race 6 sprint - Bewildering ($5.00)
Albion Park race 7 distance - Ebby Ripper ($13)