GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 17TH AUGUST
Favourite backers again had their eye in last week when eight of nine favourite's won and that was on the back of all nine winning the week prior. The only upset was Geelong, and they were well in commission ($2.25) to beat Richmond. As is usually the case, when Richmond are favourites, there is normally money for whoever they play, and that was the case again.
The premiership picture is still a little cloudy as Adelaide, the Giants, and Sydney all recorded big wins. It may become a lot clearer this Friday night when Adelaide host Sydney. The Crows opened at $1.62 with the Swans at $2.30, and although the prices haven't moved, the majority of early money (in a huge betting game) is with the travelling side. There is a strong chance that Rory Sloane will be missing from the Crows line-up due to injury, so if that happens, then the Swans must come in.
The Western Bulldogs verse Port Adelaide is an interesting matchup with the Bulldogs needing a win to keep their finals hopes alive. After opening at $1.90 apiece, the move has been for the Bulldogs, who are now $1.86.
The Gold Coast Suns will again be without Gary Ablett this week, and that has seen a good push come for Essendon. The Bombers have been $1.37 into $1.33, but most interest in them has been at the line which moved from -19.5 out to -22.5.
We have also opened up next year's flag and Adelaide along with the GWS share top billing at $4.25.
Tip: Fremantle +19.5 against Richmond ($1.90)
After their commanding win over the Sharks in Round 23, the Broncos have leapfrogged the Roosters in Premiership betting to sit on the second line. $5.50 in to $5.00 with a swathe of winning investors on board, the Broncos have this week been both the most popular side by individual bets to make the Grand Final ($3.50 in to $2.50) and the hoist the Provan-Summons trophy.
Our bookies have also been busy this week framing and opening an early market for next year's title race. Naturally enough, the Melbourne Storm are on the top line of betting at $6.00, even though they'll be without the services of Cooper Cronk. Brisbane's next at $7.00, followed by the Sydney Roosters at $8.00 and the Cowboys, with JT back for his final hoorah, at $10. Unsurprisingly perhaps after the week they've had, the Titans sit on the second last line at $26 with only Wests Tigers below them at $34. For whatever reason, the Gold Coast just can't seem to get going and, if the rumours are true and Jarryd Hayne moves on over the off-season, their price will almost certainly blow out.
Tip: Canberra -4.5 against Penrith ($1.90)
Rugby union has been on the nose recently in Australia following on from the Super Rugby season, and of course the axing of the Western Force from next season's competition.
None of the Australian sides were able to beat a New Zealand side through the Super Rugby season, and although the All Blacks were delivered a blow when only drawing in their test series against the British and Irish Lions, only a supreme optimist would be keen on the Wallabies to beat the All Blacks in Sydney on Saturday night. This match will be the start of the Rugby Championship, and also incorporates the three Bledisloe Cup matches. Turn the clock back 12 months and the Wallabies hosted the Kiwi's in game 1 in Sydney, and were on the receiving end of a 42-8 flogging. The prices predict another heavy loss as the Wallabies are $7.00 with New Zealand at $1.10, with the line set at a hefty 16.5 points start.
The other Championship match will be played at Port Elizabeth, South Africa, and the betting is identical to the game in Sydney. The Springboks are $1.10, Argentina at $7.00, with the line at -16.5, and the early money there is on South Africa conceding that line start.
Tip: Australia +16.5 against New Zealand ($1.90)
The much anticipated fight between Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor is a little over a week away, and the signs point to this being the biggest betting boxing bout ever held, and we are seeing that sort of level of interest at UBET. When the market first went up a few months ago, Mayweather was $1.15 and McGregor was $6.00, but currently Mayweather is out to $1.25 with McGregor at $4.00. The $1.25 was taken on Wednesday with another bet of $18,000, but that price is still available. The ratio of bets is running at an amazing 20:1 in favour of the outsider, and not surprisingly the majority of those are coming from the younger generation who follow the UFC closely, but of course this is different. We occasionally get a big bet for Mayweather including one early this week of $40,000 at $1.22, a couple of days before he drifted to $1.25, such is the support for the outsider. Even those who think the facts and figures point towards a Mayweather win concede that McGregor can win if he gets a big hit in early. There has been huge support for him to win by KO ($4.75 now), but oddly enough there is very little interest in Mayweather to win by the same option at $1.80.
Justin Thomas was another first time Major winner earlier in the week in the US PGA Championship, but the victory wasn't totally unexpected. Thomas was well up the betting board at $29 before they got under way, and that was on the back of a pretty good year to date.
Thomas, along with most of the other big names, will be taking this week off. The tour event is the Wyndham Championship, and is a wide open betting affair, Henrik Stenson is our $13 favourite ahead of Kevin Kisner ($17 in to $15) and Webb Simpson ($23). Kisner was right in contention last weekend, so it will be interesting to see how he fares after a disappointing finish. Cameron Smith is the shortest of the Aussies at $101, and while last year's winner Si Woo Kim is not starting, runner-up Luke Donald must be rated some chance at $101.
Closer to home the Euro/Australasian Tour's co- sanctioned event will be the Fiji International which starts very early Thursday morning Australian time. Ryan Fox had a couple of horror rounds in the US PGA but courtesy of a 66 on the second round eventually finished in a tie for 54th. On that form alone he seems generously priced at $11 to win in Fiji and we have seen solid support for him along with Andrew Dodt ($15) and veteran Vijay Singh at $17.
Laustzring, Germany, will host the Superbikes for only the second time this weekend, and with only a handful of meetings to go, it appears as though Jonathan Rea ($1.01) has the title firmly in his grasp.
Rea won race 2 in the USA a little over a month ago after finishing second behind Chaz Davies in race 1, and ironically that pair won the corresponding races in Germany 12 months ago. Betting on these races has been a bit more competitive in recent times, and Rea opens at $2.00 to win race 1 on Saturday, ahead of Davies at $3.50 and Tom Sykes at $4.00.
The Enduro part of the Supercar season is fast approaching with Sandown to follow this week's meeting in Sydney. Eastern Creek will again be the venue for the Sydney Super Sprint over 31 laps on Saturday then a second race of 52 laps on Sunday. Scot McLaughlin comes to Sydney in terrific form with a win at Ipswich last start, and has also sped to three of the last seven pole positions, and that will be an advantage if he can do the same for race 1 on Saturday. UBET punters are happy to take the $2.75 for McLaughlin but there is also good early money for Shane Van Gisbergen at $5.50 and Chaz Mostert at $10. Van Gisbergen won the opening race in Sydney last year so that would explain the backing for him, but perhaps the value is with Mostert who aside from winning the other race at Ipswich has secured the other four pole positions from the last seven races that McLaughlin has missed out on. The $10 looks very good odds!
Tip: Scott McLaughlin to win race 1 ($2.75)
The QLD finals of the Nationals will be decided tonight (Thursday), and there has been a tremendous amount of interest in both. Outside Pass stepped up to the longer trip for the first time and led for most of the latter portion of the race to win in fast time. Jalapeno won the other heat giving Tony Apap the two heat winners, but there has been a spirited betting move for Big Easy Red in tonight's final. The striking stayer opened at $4.50 from the red box, but has been backed into $3.70. If he leads, as the betting suggests, it could make it tough for Outside Pass but it will definitely assist Jalapeno.
In the sprint, super trainer Tony Brett has four of the first five in the market. Thirty Talks has had a couple of runs back from seven months on the sidelines, and is a firmer from $4.00 into $3.60 after working home nicely last week.
The box draw for Friday week's UBET National finals will be conducted at the Stamford Plaza in Brisbane on Friday morning, and UBET will have betting open for both finals shortly afterwards.
Tip: Outside Pass to win Albion Park race 8 ($2.25)
* Prices are correct at 2pm Thursday.