GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 3RD AUGUST
Hawthorn have stumbled across some form at the right end of the season but every game is a must win game from here on in, but they do have a pretty good run to the finals. They were $251 earlier in the season to win the flag and $15 to make top eight and are now $41 and $6.00 respectively. Adelaide still head the flag market at $3.50 after Mitch McGovern kicked the goal after the siren to draw against Collingwood last week. GWS are next best at $5.00, followed by Geelong at $6.50 and Port Adelaide round out the top four at $8.00.
The big news this week is of course Patrick Dangerfield is now ineligible to win the Brownlow and now Dustin Martin looks the obvious choice at $1.25. However, Martin punters shouldn’t start celebrating just yet, he’s been on the receiving end of two low level offences this season and a third charge would see him suffer the same fate as Dangerfield. Even though he has that hanging over his head, Martin is now the shortest ever favourite to win the Brownlow this far out from the award.
In Coleman Medal news, Essendon’s Joe Daniher is now favourite to win, although on occasion his kicking for goal is erratic at best. He opened $26 before season started and he’s now in to clear favourite at $2.40.
Adelaide ($1.58) taking on Port ($2.40) is undoubtedly the match of the round and with a 70% chance of rain forecast for Adelaide on Sunday, this should be a close contest. Adelaide came back from the dead after being 50+ points behind to draw with Collingwood. Power also just got out of jail kicking two goals in the last minute to beat the Saints. The record between the two also suggests a close contest. Adelaide has won the last four straight and won 6 of the last 10 matches by an average of only 9 points. At the moment, the bet numbers are split right down the middle in Sunday’s Showdown.
Geelong is coming off a comprehensive victory against the Blues, while the Swans winning run came to an end at the hands of the Hawks. Because Dangerfield is out, the Cats have drifted from $1.70 out to $1.95. It is a huge plus for them to return to Skilled Stadium where they’ve won nine of their last ten matches and the last seven straight. Interestingly, Sydney was the last side to beat Geelong on their home turf and they’re favourite here at $1.85.
GWS are the $1.50 favourites against Melbourne this week. GWS won their first game in over a month with an unconvincing victory over the Dockers, while Melbourne suffered a shock loss against the Kangaroos last week. All the early money has been for Melbourne and they are now $2.60 (in from $2.90). These two have a pretty even history with the wins slightly in favour of Melbourne (5 wins to 4), so expect a pretty even contest on Saturday.
St Kilda somehow managed to blow a 10 point lead with one minute to go to lose to Port, while West Coast had a very soft victory over the Lions. Despite being outsiders against the Saints this week, West Coast have a dominant record winning the last eight matches between the pair, by a whopping average of 60 points. In saying that, all the interest so far has been for St Kilda straight out at $1.85 (now $1.70) and there’s been a huge amount of support for them at the minus with the line moving from -1.5 to -4.5 and it doesn’t look to be stopping there.
Brisbane take on the Bulldog’s at the Gabba on Saturday night and they are the rough outsiders at $4.50. An undermanned Brisbane was outgunned by West Coast last week, while the Dogs resurgence continued with a win over the Bombers. The Dogs haven’t enjoyed great success at the Gabba in recent times losing their last four matches there. Despite this stat, there has been some early money for the Bulldogs to cover the 28.5 line.
Tip: North Melbourne to beat Collingwood ($2.35)
Should we just stop the fight now and hand the title Melbourne? Because most UBET punters seem to think so! Since Round 13 way back in back in early June, the official halfway point of the NRL home-and-away season, an incredible 55% of the money wagered on just who will be crowned 2017 premiers has been for the Storm, who have shortened from $3.65 to $2.35. No other team comes close to that level of investment!
Parramatta put the cleaners through the Broncos last week and the Eels are back in action tonight (Thursday) in the Round 22 opener against the Bulldogs. Money is running at an overwhelming 5:1 ratio for the Blue and Golds, who are currently priced at $1.45. A seed of confidence is also starting to grow about the Eels’ overall chances in 2017. Outside of the Storm, they’ve been the most popular bet this week to snare the end-of-season silverware at $15.
Brisbane, meanwhile, is well fancied to bounce back and beat the Titans in the second edition of the bi-annual M1 Derby. Our bookies have already laid several large, four-figure bets on the Broncos between $1.55 and $1.50 and the game is still 48-hours away. James ‘The Jet’ Roberts scored three tries against his former club in the corresponding fixture back in March. Surprise, surprise; he’s the $8.00 favourtie to cross first on Saturday.
Tip: Melbourne storm at the -4.5 against North Queensland ($1.90)
The US PGA Championship is only a week away, and several of the main hopes will be going around in the Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone this week.
Jordan Spieth is the $9.00 favourite from Rory McIlroy ($10) and Dustin Johnson ($11), and that trio head the PGA Market with McIlroy and Spieth at $8.00, narrowly ahead of Johnson at $8.50. Ironically there has been an avalanche of money for Spieth to win next week, but the support hasn’t really been there for the Bridgestone. Punters have shown a distinct preference for Johnson, perhaps as he is the defending champion. McIlroy is a $10 pop this week, and is also a previous winner having tasted success in 2014. Jason Day is the shortest of the Aussies at $29, just ahead of Adam Scott at $31. Scott is also on the honour board here having won in 2011.
Tip: Rickie Fowler to win the Bridgestone Invitational ($17)
The motoGP season resumes again this week with the Czech Republic Grand Prix and, as we have seen from the last few races, the championship has opened up somewhat after it appeared as though Maverick Vinales would dominate the season after some early wins. Vinales is actually second pick this week at $3.00 behind Marc Marquez at $2.75 and, although Marquez won the last race in Germany, he is still yet to record a win around the Brno circuit. Valentino Rossi trails that pair in the betting at $5.00, then follows Dani Pedrosa ($9.00) and Andrea Dovizioso ($13) with up and comer Johann Zarco at $17.
Tip: Marc Marquez to win the Czech Republic Grand Prix ($2.75)
The opening of the EPL season is only a week away. Arsenal are expected to win that season opener against Leicester on Friday week (UK time). Arsenal are hot $1.38 favourites in that match with the draw at $4.75, and Leicester rank outsiders at $7.50. We all know the fairy tale story surrounding Leicester from two seasons ago and, while they finished closer to last than first last season, there have been plenty of bets placed on them at $251. There are six sides $11 and under in title betting and there is an interesting trend there. Man City are favourite, and clear money favourite at $3.00, with Chelsea and Man UTD sharing the second line at $4.25. Tottenham ($9.00), Arsenal ($10) and Liverpool ($11) are in a cluster behind the top trio. Chelsea has been the least popular of those six sides even though they won the title last season. UBET have a host of ‘futures’ markets open on the EPL including the ‘Top Goal Scorer’ market where Tottenham’s Harry Kane is the $3.75 favourite.
Roger Federer has shortened up even further to win the US Open in September. After his victory in Paris, Federer was $3.00 to win the US Open. On the back of Novak Djokovic being ruled out for the year, and public support, Federer is now $2.25. Rafael Nadal is $3.70, and then follows Andy Murray at $6.00, but there hasn’t been too much early interest in either of those players. Outside of Federer, the best backed have been Stan Wawrinka ($11), Marin Cilic ($17) and Kei Nishikori ($31).
The Women’s title is a lot more open price wise with Garbine Muguruza heading that market at $7.00 ahead of Karolina Pliskova at $7.50, Angie Kerber at $9.00 and Victoria Azarenka also $9.00. Johanna Konta is hot on their heels at $10, and Konta along with Muguruza are the clear money favourites with UBET a month out from the start.
* Prices are correct midday Thursday.