GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 27TH JULY
Naturally there is a stack of interest in the AFL matches each week, but there are also a lot of talking points around several of the futures markets. We know that Sydney touched $81 to win the flag after starting the season 0/6, but it is worth pointing out that they were also $6.00 to make the 8 at that stage, and now they are less than that ($5.00) to win the flag! That puts the Swans on the second line of betting with Adelaide at $3.50 and the Giants are now out to $5.50, along with Geelong. Richmond and Melbourne were impressive winners last week and are both at $15. With Port Adelaide stumbling last week, there is now some chance that Sydney could even make it to the top four ($2.50). At the other end of the ladder, Brisbane’s improved form has seen them drift from $1.05 out to $1.60 to finish last, with both North Melbourne and Carlton now in contention at $3.00 and $6.00 respectively.
The three at the head of Brownlow betting remain where they were, but Paddy Dangerfield has eased from $1.85 out to $2.00. Dustin Martin has closed in on favouritism ($2.75 in to $2.15). Hawthorn’s Tom Mitchell is no longer being mentioned as a dark horse, he is right in the mix at $7.00.
The upcoming round looks a lot more predictable than it has for several months, but of course that doesn’t mean that all of the good things will win. The multi for all favourites to win was around the $13 mark midweek (for a $1 outlay), and that is the shortest for months. The closest betting game of the round is the Bulldogs v Essendon at Etihad on Sunday. Essendon have opened slight $1.86 favourites over the reigning premiers at $1.95. UBET punters want to be with the Bombers and that will help in their race for the eight at the same time, perhaps snuffing out the finals hopes of the Dogs.
GWS have already been $1.19 into $1.14 to put a halt to their form slump against the hapless Dockers. The line here opened at -31.5 but a concerted push midweek has seen that number now move to -38.5.
Sydney have a tricky match against Hawthorn on Friday night. The Hawks have found some form just like the Swans, and in an interesting betting match, the activity is split down the middle, even though Sydney are clear favourite at $1.45
Tip: St Kilda +30.5 against Port Adelaide ($1.85)
All four Super Rugby favourites won in the opening week of the finals, and while that might not surprise too many, it seems the Lions are out of favour after a narrow victory over the Sharks.
By virtue of a soft draw, the Lions were $2.75 favourites to win the title last week, and now they are $3.75 third pick and $2.10 outsiders at home this week to the Hurricanes. The Kiwi sides have only been successful in 4 of 11 playoff matches played in South Africa, but to offset that stat, the Canes have won their last 8 against the Lions, and they will take a lot from the average win by the Lions against the Sharks last week.
In the other semi-final, the Chiefs took the same route last year, having to travel to South Africa then back to NZ. On that occasion they suffered a 25 to 9 loss to the Hurricanes in the semi-final. The early money says the same fate may await them this year. The Crusaders opened at $1.33 in this match but several big bets (including one of $9,000), have seen that price cut to $1.30, with the line set at -7.5. The Crusaders did beat the Chiefs 31 to 24 this season after the Chiefs had won the previous 4 matches. However, the Crusaders have been the form side of the comp and have remained unbeaten at home this season.
Tip: Lions to beat the Hurricanes ($2.10)
A strained pectoral muscle has thrown wide open the Dally M Medal race. Melbourne Storm skipper Cameron Smith was the prohibitive $1.75 favourtie with UBET for the award heading into Round 20. Now with the chest injury he sustained against the Raiders, his odds have doubled to $3.50. And, even though the Maroons and Kangaroos leader may only miss a week of action, he’s been usurped as the favourite. Gareth Widdop, who bagged 20 individual points against the Manly Sea Eagles, and no doubt polled a stack of votes, is the new top elect at $3.00. Mitch Pearce and Daly Cherry-Evans are the only other contenders under the $10-line, priced at $5.00 and $7.00 respectively.
Round 21 begins tonight (Thurs) with the Panthers taking on the Bulldogs. After a sluggish start to proceedings, money is starting arrive for hosts Penrith at $1.45. Based on what the Dogs dished up against the Broncos last week, most wouldn’t back them with borrowed money. Still, there a few rusted on fans taking a punt on the Belmore Boys at $2.85.
Brisbane has been subject to an early move ($1.55 in to $1.47) in their Friday Night fixture against Parramatta. Our bookies put the Broncos up at $1.74 last week, but after the injury to Eels’ gun Clint Gutherson, the big bets began to roll in and Brisbane had to be trimmed right up to $1.47. A couple of upsets could be on the cards on Saturday too, according to the early money trail, anyway. The Rabbitohs are $2.45 outsiders and have been well tried to upset Canberra ($1.57). Also, the Cowboys are now in to $2.30 and backed as though they’re a chance to roll the Roosters ($1.65).
Tip: New Zealand to beat Cronulla ($2.35)
Jordan Spieth adds another Major to his trophy cabinet, and with the American back in form, he is back in favour with UBET golf fans to win the US PGA. Spieth is $8.50 along with Dustin Johnson to win the PGA, narrowly behind Rory McIlroy at $8.00. With the Irishman also seemingly running back into form last week, all of the money has been for Spieth, and then McIlroy. Marc Leishman finished the best of the Aussies in the British Open, and while he has Jason Day ($17) and Adam Scott ($34) ahead of him in the PGA, he has been the most popular of that trio at $41.
The Canadian Open is the PGA Tour event this week. Historically most of those who competed in the British Open normally bypass this event, several have made their way across the Atlantic to go around again. Dustin Johnson is the $7.50 favourite but not surprisingly, all of the early interest is with Matt Kuchar ($11) who served it up to Jordan Spieth for most of last weekend. Cameron Smith and Cameron Percy are the shortest of the Aussie contingent at $81, and last year’s winner, Jhonattan Vegas, is well down the list at $126.
Tip: Matt Kuchar to win the Canadian Open ($11)
The best swimmers are in Hungary at the moment, and the best drivers in the world are also in Budapest this week for the Formula 1 Grand Prix.
Lewis Hamilton bounced back to form with a win in the British GP a fortnight ago, and that followed on from a win in Austria to Valtteri Bottas and an upset win in Azerbaijan to Daniel Ricciardo. Hamilton has opened at $1.80 to win in Hungary, and apart from the fact he is coming into this race having won at his last start, he is a five time winner at the course (including last year). Sebastian Vettel is second elect at $4.25, ahead of Bottas at $5.50 and Daniel Ricciardo (who won here in 2014) is next in line at $10.00.
Tip: Lewis Hamilton to win the F1 Hungarian Grand Prix ($1.80)
The testing Ipswich course will host the Supercars for two races this weekend. Race 1 will be 39 laps on Saturday, with a much longer event of 65 laps to be run on Sunday. The same four names appear at the top of the betting again, with Scott McLaughlin the $3.50 favourite to win race 1. Jamie Whincup is next at $4.00, followed by Shane Van Gisbergen and Fabian Coulthard, both at $4.50. Outside of that quartet, there has been a good push for Craig Lowndes at $15. Lowndes has the record for most wins around Queensland Raceway (12), and he won race 2 here last year. Last year also saw Van Gisbergen take out race 1 by defeating Whincup, and Whincup then went on to finish second behind Lowndes. Apart from that good form line, Whincup racked up a win and a second at the most recent meeting in Townsville, so he is in form.
Tip: Ipswich Supersprint Race 1 Jamie Whincup to win ($4.00)
Queensland has a strong representation in the Group 1 Maturity Classic which will be run at the Meadows on Saturday night. Tony Brett has two runners in the final, Opal Nera ($4.00) and the Terry Hill owned and aptly named Fast Times ($3.50). Mepunga Blazer set the time standard in the semi’s and although he has opened as the $2.50 favourite with UBET, he will need to begin cleanly from box 5. Fast Times is super quick, and many would argue that the outside draw here (box 8) will suit him, and he does have a risky beginner to his left. Opal Nera has an abundance of early pace and he looks one of the likely leaders along with Mepunga Blazer.
Burn One Down is the fastest stayer in Australia but his racing pattern often sees him in strife, and that was his undoing last week in a heat of the Destini Fireball. Burn One Down has a real cult following amongst UBET greyhound enthusiasts, and he has opened at $1.55 to atone in that final on the same card Saturday night.
Tip: Maturity Classic Final - Mepunga Blazer to win ($2.50)
The Super Welterweight bout between Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor is still a month away. The signs are there that the betting on this fight will supersede the recent Jeff Horn fight. Although McGregor’s background is in UFC, the money for him to win is staggering. The bet numbers are running 40:1 in his favour (currently $4.75). There have been some sizable bets on Mayweather, including one at $19,000 at the $1.20 and we expect more big bets roll in for him as the big day approaches. The trend is similar in nearly all of the exotic bet types as well, with the most popular of those being the ‘method of result’ market. In that market, Mayweather is the shortest way at $1.68 to win by KO, but that has basically been ignored. There’s been a stack of money for McGregor to win by KO ($6.00), or by Decision ($21) and some lukewarm interest in Mayweather to win by Decision at $3.00. It seems all the trash talk and the ensuing media coverage surrounding this fight is doing its job!
UBET have opened a couple of early markets on the IAAF World Championships which get under way in London at the end of next week. The talking point at any athletics meet is always Usain Bolt, and as the curtain comes down on his career, the men’s 100m sprint will be the highlight of the Championships. Bolt has opened at $1.50 to win gold but there has been early interest in the American youngster Christian Coleman at $6.00, the same line of betting as the controversial Justin Gatlin.
The Fina World Championships are already under way in Hungary, with most of the big names competing and there has been solid interest in the first week to date. Sun Yang, another controversial athlete with strong ties to Australia, has been the swimmer who has attracted most support each time he competes. There has been a steady increase in betting as people become aware of the terrific coverage. The Aussies haven’t fared so well to date, and while their ultimate focus will be on the Commonwealth Games next year, it is good to see a lot of them getting PB’s. UBET will have a market on each of the finals in Budapest, both before the heats are swum, and then of course once the final field is known.
* Prices are correct midday Thursday.