GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 20TH JULY
Several of the favoured players in the British Open have been struggling with their form this year. That has certainly opened up the betting and we are seeing money spread across a lot more players this year.
Dustin Johnson is the easing $15 favourite (out from $10), and he has been the least popular of those under $26. Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth occupy the second line at $17 and Fowler has been particularly popular, including one bet of $2,000 at $17. We have made mention of the good form that Jon Rahm has been in and the punters have reacted, he’s now rock solid at $17 after being $26 a few weeks ago. It has been a similar scenario with another in-form player in Tommy Fleetwood, now $23 after opening at $41 a few months ago. Matt Kuchar has also been backed, he’s now in to $51 from his opening quote of $67, with one punter outlaying $1,000 on him at $61.
For the first time in a few years, Jason Day is not the shortest of the Aussies in a Major with Adam Scott given that role this time around. Scott is $26, Day $31 and Marc Leishman right behind them at $41. There are 11 Australians in the field and betting has been brisk on the ‘Top Aussie’ market where Scott and Day are the $3.00 favourites ahead of Leishman at $4.25…and he has been the most popular.
UBET will have live coverage of the Open from start to finish and most of the other markets will re-open at the end of the day’s play each day.
Tip: Marc Leishman to win the British Open ($41)
Adelaide ($3.75) have found themselves flag favourites as GWS ($4.50) have fallen away a little in recent weeks. Sydney are currently $6.00, which is dramatically shorter than the $81 dollars on offer early in the season after their six game losing streak. Geelong are also $6.00 and Port Adelaide are next best at $7.00. The notable mover has been Essendon, they have been $41 in to $21 after beating St Kilda easily last week. They still have work to do to make the finals but they do have a favourable draw from here on in.
The Brownlow is looking like a two horse race, perhaps three at best. Following last week, Dangerfield shortened up from $2.10 in to $1.85 and Martin also shortened from $2.75 in to $2.50. Supporters of both got a scare with an injury to Dangerfield, and Martin was again flirting with a trip to the tribunal. The other one to keep an eye on though is Tom Mitchell ($9.00) from Hawthorn. He has had a great season and is a good each way prospect. From what we saw, all three would have been amongst the votes last week.
Buddy Franklin has been heavily backed to win the Coleman Medal and he’s now $1.60 (in from $2.25). He’s only two goals in front of Joe Daniher who is now $3.25 (in from $5.50) and Jeremy Cameron is next at $9.00, seven goals behind Daniher.
Friday’s top of the table clash should be a beauty. Adelaide ran over the top of an injury depleted Melbourne last week and have now won four of their last five matches. Geelong, on the back of a Dangerfield special, got the better of the Hawks in a thriller. The early push was for Geelong who are now $2.70 but there has also been some money for Adelaide at the $1.52 and now they’re in to $1.47. The Cats match up well against Adelaide, winning the last five games between the two by an average margin of 31 points. However, all eyes will be on who lines up, apart from Dangerfield for Geelong there is also some doubt about Rory Sloane and Josh Jenkins for the Crows.
Melbourne take on Port Adelaide and desperately want to stay in the top eight, while Port are keen to remain in the top four. Port destroyed North Melbourne in a very lopsided contest last week. While Melbourne struggled with injuries and were no match for Adelaide. There’s been an early move towards the Power here and Melbourne have drifted from $2.25 out to $2.35. In an interesting stat, despite the MCG being Melbourne’s home ground, they have only won four of their last ten matches there.
Sydney notched up another victory on the weekend defeating cross town rivals GWS in a very entertaining contest. The Saints were brought back down to earth after being comprehensively beaten by the Bombers. The Swans enjoy playing the Saints as they’ve won their last five matches against them by an average margin of 69 points. With the recent spate of upsets, there has been a bit of support for the Saints who have firmed from $4.25 in to $4.00.
If Brisbane can beat Carlton it will put them equal last with North Melbourne, but they’re probably going to have to win a few more games to ensure they don’t collect the wooden spoon. Brisbane fell away pretty badly to the Tigers last week and their young side appears to be struggling as the season draws to a close. Carlton was again competitive and while defensively they are solid, their inability to hit the scoreboard continues to hurt them. Brisbane’s recent record against Carlton has been good, winning four of the last five contests by an average of nine points. Punters think Brisbane may be able to bounce back this week and they’ve shortened from $2.60 in to $2.25.
Tip: Richmond to beat GWS ($2.25)
Punters are pretty confident the team currently on top of the table will still be there when the final whistle blows on the 2017 season. Of all the money wagered on the NRL Premiership with UBET this month, a whopping 45% is for the Melbourne Storm, who have been $2.85 into $2.65. Brisbane (currently $9.00) is the next best backed with 15%, despite having arguably the toughest run to the finals. While $15 roughies North Queensland, without their skipper and spiritual leader Johnathan Thurston for the remainder of the season, is seeing the third most action with 13%. Curiously, more money is being invested on both the Cronulla Sharks at $7.50 (9%) and the Manly Sea Eagles at $11 (5%) than on the $6.00 second elects, the Sydney Roosters (3%).
Round 20 kicks-off tonight (Thursday) with a belter between the Broncos and the Bulldogs. Brisbane go in warm well-backed favourites at $1.33, but history tells us the Dogs are not without hope at $3.45. Canterbury has covered in four of their last five games against the Brisbane, winning outright in two of the past three. Brisbane gets Matt Gillett and Josh Maguire back this week, but they are still well below full strength, so perhaps an upset is on the cards?
Meanwhile, league punters are backing Melbourne to beat Canberra on Saturday like the Storm are the good thing of good things. Cam Smith and Co. are easily the best backed side in early betting at $1.44 (in from $1.50), including one big bet earlier in the week of $8,000 at $1.45 as well as multiple other four-figure wagers. Currently $2.85, the ‘Green Machine’ is friendless in what, for them, is just about a must-win game.
Tip: Cronulla -9.5 against South Sydney ($1.90)
The vagaries of the SUPER Rugby season have been discussed at length and, with the home and away season out of the road, there is a new favourite to win the title, and it isn’t one of the New Zealand sides. The results from last week saw the Lions grab top spot on the table and they are now $2.85, ahead of the Crusaders at $3.00 and the Hurricanes at $3.50. The Canes defeated the Crusaders last week but the Crusaders had several players out. The Lions have had the softest of draws and they haven’t played a New Zealand side yet but, if the results go their way they will be at home in the Grand Final.
The Lions are expected to beat the Sharks this week, with punters keen on the -14.5 as soon as that line went up. The Brumbies will be at home to the Hurricanes on Friday night, and while they have won their last three at home against the Hurricanes, they are the $5.00 outsiders. The clash between the Crusaders and the Highlanders is creating most interest with early money going with the Crusaders ($1.50 in to $1.42). The Crusaders won both meetings this season by three points, they only suffered one defeat and that was last week. However, the Highlanders were the big improvers in the latter part of the season and look likely to get to a very good price. In the final match, the Chiefs have been a big go, already $1.70 into $1.57 to beat the Stormers. The Stormers have only lost one game at home this season (to the Lions) while the Chiefs have only lost one ‘away’ game this season, and that was in fact to the Stormers. The last four matches between these two sides have averaged 64 points, so that might be a good way to approach the game, a play on the overs total!
Tip: Highlanders +5.5 against Crusaders ($1.95)
The accolades have been big for Roger Federer since he won Wimbledon (again) on the weekend, and rightly so. It didn’t take long for UBET punters to look ahead to the US Open and, there has been a constant stream of bets coming through for Federer to add the US Open to his already impressive list of Major’s. Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal share the second line of betting at $5.00, but each showed in England that they have a lot of work to do. Marin Cilic has moved from $26 in to $15 following his Wimbledon finals appearance. There has been good early money for Kei Nishikori, including one bet of $800 at $26.00.
The US Open women’s betting is wide open with Garbine Muguruza moving into $7.50 favourite after her victory at Wimbledon. She’s narrowly ahead of Angie Kerber, Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sharapova, Simona Halep and Karolina Pliskova, all at $9.00.
UBET has opened a market to win next season’s NBL. The prices suggest any one of the eight sides could win. Melbourne United and Perth claim top billing at $4.25, ahead of the Kings at $5.50. Then follows Illawarra ($6.50), New Zealand ($8.00), Brisbane ($9.00) with Adelaide and Cairns the outsiders at $10. There are several other options open as well, with the Minor Premiership having a similar look to the title betting. Cairns and Adelaide are co $3.25 favourites to finish at the bottom of the table in the ‘most losses’ market. Betting on the MVP is wide open as well, where Perth’s Bryce Cotton is the $8.00 favourite after the Wildcats released Corey Webster from his contract last week (Webster was the favourite at the time).