GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 22ND JUNE
The Origin series is alive after Queensland came from well down to win game 2. The 16-6 half time score in favour of NSW was probably a little flattering to Qld, and they were a hefty $4.75, or +10.5, at the break. In light of the domination displayed by the Blues in the first half, it was hard to believe that they failed to trouble the scorer in the second half, but that is exactly what happened. For the umpteenth time it was the boot of Johnathan Thurston that was the difference in the 18-16 win. However, the vision in the Qld rooms after the match would be disturbing to Maroons fans, as clearly JT has a big problem with this shoulder.
So, on to game 3. Betting opened with QLD at $1.75 and NSW at $2.10, but a lot will depend on the verdict with Thurston’s shoulder. If he’s ruled out, then there will not be much between the 2 sides in the market.
Naturally JT is expected to be ruled out of Saturday night’s match against Penrith. Prior to Origin, the Cowboys were $1.55, but there will be very little separating them now in what is a really important match.
Canberra need a win to get their season back on track, and they are $1.67 to beat Brisbane in Canberra on Saturday night. The jury is out on Canberra, they have been beaten several times this season when in a winning position.
Melbourne and the Roosters head the premiership market, and will do battle in Adelaide on Saturday night. There is some early support for Melbourne Storm as they opened up $1.80 favourites and are now in to $1.75.
Tip: Canberra to beat Brisbane ($1.60)
The Western Bulldogs look shot and Melbourne all of a sudden look like the sleeping giants. Is that how you see it? The Bulldogs are out to $17 and Melbourne are in to $15 and the form of both teams justifies those prices. Adelaide remain slight $3.75 favourites ahead of the GWS at $4.00, so no change there, and the other move has been for Sydney, who are also on the $15 line with Melbourne.
Favourite followers took another battering last week when only three of six were able to win, and only two of those covered the line. The upcoming round is dominated by short priced favourites, but as we have seen so often this season, price means nothing.
Hawthorn have won seven of their last eight against Adelaide, and have beaten the Crows the last three times in Adelaide, but Hawthorn are a shell of their former selves. In fact the $7.50 price for them is the longest pre-game price in over 10 years.
Collingwood and Port is an intriguing matchup at the MCG on Saturday afternoon, with opinions, and money, divided. Port are slight favs at $1.77 with Collingwood at $2.05, and the betting is split right down the middle.
The Bulldogs got home by three points over North Melbourne back in round 4, and although they are warm $1.48 pops to beat the Roos this week, there is clear apprehension on behalf of punters, and it is easy to see why. On that occasion the Doggies were $1.25, but their form over the past few weeks is a major worry. Neither team has kicked in excess of 100 points in their last 4 meetings, so it could be tight, and for that reason we have taken some good bets on North at the 13.5 points start.
Tip: North Melbourne +13.5 against the Western Bulldogs ($1.90)
Well, haven’t the Wallabies copped it in the press this week after a shock loss to Scotland? The criticism is probably fair enough as the Scots were down a couple of key players who are part of the British Lions squad and the game was being played in Australia. The $6.00 outsiders scored the winning try with a few minutes to go, and it will go down as one of the biggest upsets of the year in rugby.
This week the task should be a lot easier for the Wallabies. They play Italy in Brisbane, and anything less than a big win will not satisfy the critics. The Wallabies are $1.02 with Italy at $13, and the line has been set at -25.5. The pair have met 16 times in the past and Australia have won all 16, and they really should be keeping that record intact.
The All Blacks play the British and Irish Lions on Saturday night, and while the Lions had an impressive win over the NZ Maoris last week, this will be different. The All Blacks haven’t been beaten at Eden Park since 1994, and are rated a $1.20 chance this week, they shouldn’t blot that record. There has been some decent money this week for the Lions with the start, which has moved the line from +14.5 in to +11.5.
Tip: Australia -25.5 against Italy ($1.85)
Within minutes of the Golden State Warriors wrapping up the NBA title, UBET opened the market for next year’s title, and there aren’t too many shocks there. The Warriors opened $1.70 ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers at $4.00, and there has been some interest in the Cavs at that price. Next follows the San Antonio Spurs at $11, with the Boston Celtics ($13) the only other side under $21. In the coming weeks several other ‘futures’ markets will begin to open as well.
The Pacquiao/Horn fight is a only a week away, and while local hope Jeff Horn has naturally amassed plenty of support at $4.50 from his legion of fans, bigger punters have a distinct like for Pacquiao at $1.20. Practically all of the four figure bets have been for The Pacman, most recently $9,000 and $3,000 at $1.25. He is also $1.90 to win by decision in the ‘method of result’ market but that has been neglected in preference to a win by KO at $3.25.
The announcement that Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor will step into the ring in late August sparked a betting frenzy as soon as that market opened. All of the stats say that Mayweather has to win, but he hasn’t had a fight for two years. There was early money for him at $1.16 including one bet of $10,000, but the overwhelming support for McGregor has seen Mayweather blow to $1.18 and McGregor is in to $5.00 from an opening $5.50 quote.
Baku, Azerbaijan will host the F1’s this week, and Lewis Hamilton will be trying to get back-to-back wins after winning in Canada. Hamilton has opened at $1.85 to win in Baku ahead of Sebastian Vettel ($2.70) and Valtteri Bottas ($5.50), so that order has been maintained from the past few races. There isn’t a lot to go on as far as history is concerned in Azerbaijan as there has only been one race held there last year and that was won by the now retired Nico Rosberg.
Tip: Lewis Hamilton to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix
After the first few races this season it appeared as though Maverick Vinales would dominate all year, but that hasn’t been the case recently. All of a sudden we have half a dozen winning hopes in each race. The Dutch GP will be run at Assen on Sunday, and Vinales ($3.25) has been displaced at the head of the market by Marc Marquez ($3.00) and Valentino Rossi at $3.25. Andrea Dovizioso won in Catalunya two weeks ago, and did win this race last year, and he has been well supported early at $7.50.
Tip: Valentino Rossi to win the Dutch Grand Prix ($3.25)
The Tour de France is also only a couple of weeks away from starting, and while Richie Porte was favourite last week, he has eased slightly. Porte and Chris Froome are now both $2.50 favourites. Although, the amount invested on Porte exceeds 10 times what we have seen for Froome. Nairo Quintana has moved from $7.50 into $7.00, with the other mover being Alejandro Valverde who is now $19 after opening at $26.
Brooks Koepka was another first time Major winner when he won the US Open at Erin Hills early in the week. While the win by Koepka may have come as a surprise to those who don’t follow the PGA Tour closely, he is a player who has been in form and was only $41 in the market before the US Open got under way. Normally the big names have the week off after a Major, but a lot are lining up again in the Travelers Championship this week. Jordan Spieth is the $9.00 favourite there ahead of Rory McIlroy ($10), Jason Day ($15) and Justin Thomas ($15). Marc Leishman is a $31 chance, and was the only Aussie to make the cut last week. Most of the early money has been for Jason Day to recover from an early exit at Erin Hills.
Tip: Rory McIlroy to win the Travelers Championship ($10)
Unfortunately Fanta Bale, the winner of the UBET Gold Cup last Thursday night at Albion Park will not take her place in the Superstayers at Albion Park tonight. Fanta Bale picked up a minor throat infection after last week’s win and trainer Rob Britton didn’t want to take the risk with such a valuable commodity, so she is out. The concept of the race limits it to a field of four, and another Victorian, Burn One Down, has been backed for bundles to land the major prize. After opening at $1.60, Burn One Down has been crunched in to $1.42 with Ebby Ripper at $4.20. Local star Cyndie’s Magic is at $6.50, and another local in Big Easy Red the bolter at $23. Many think that Burn One Down is the best stayer in Australia but often finds trouble in full fields, so the small field should suit.
Tip: Burn One Down to win the Superstayers Invitational ($1.42)
The Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival comes to a close this week with the running of the group 1 Tattersall’s Tiara. I don’t think you need to look too much further than the favourite In Her Time. The classy four-year-old mare is solid at the $3.20 and has proper group 1 form behind her. It was an incredible effort in the Stradbroke to finish second after being wide and if the emergencies don’t run she’ll start from barrier 13. Prompt response ($6.00), Bonny O’Reilly ($10) and Tycoon Tara ($23) bring the best of the Dane Ripper form. The Bjorn Baker-trained Egyptian Symbol ($12) ran well in the Stradbroke when she made up huge ground from the back and shouldn’t be dismissed.
Tip: In Her Time to win the Tatts Tiara ($3.20)