GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 15TH JUNE
It will be a big night at Albion Park tonight (Thursday) with the running of the UBET Flying Amy and the Group 1 UBET Gold Cup finals. Fanta Bale ran a fast time in a come-from-behind win in her heat of the Gold Cup. That was her first run at the track. Fanta Bale is a multiple group 1 winner over all distances and has amassed over $700,000 in prize money, and while she is clearly the one to beat ($1.70), the niggling doubt is she has pace either side of her. Queensland champ Cyndie’s Magic was beaten by Dundee Calypso in her heat, but one fan thinks that Cyndie’s can atone in the final with a bet of $1,400 taken early in the week at $6.50. If there is to be an upset it could be another local, Jalapeno, who could provide that surprise. The Tony Apap runner was having his first run over the 710m trip last week and didn’t disgrace when finishing second to Fanta Bale.
In the Flying Amy, Jackson Benz has taken all before him in recent times and is the current $1.85 favourite after drawing box 2. Shoes To Fill ($4.60 in to $3.80) looks the main danger after drawing the coveted red box, but he has been hit and miss at the start recently, which can only help Jackson Benz.
Tip: Fanta Bale to win the Gold Cup ($1.70).
Tip: Jackson Benz to win the Flying Amy Classic ($1.85).
The Queensland carnival makes its way to Bundamba this weekend for the time-honoured Ipswich Cup. It’s been spruiked as “Ipswich’s biggest social event of the year” and I’m pretty sure everyone who lives in Ipswich will be on track. Benzini has to lug the 60kg and is currently $4.80. Jumbo Prince remains steady at the $5.00 quote but he’s never won past 1800m. The favourite is Sort After ($3.60) who has drawn wide but with only 54.5kg, looks the one to beat.
There are also two other listed races on the card, the Eyeliner Stakes and the Gai Waterhouse Classic, both over the 1350m. The Eyeliner is wide open this year with Acatour ($5.00) the favourite, closely followed by The Virginian ($6.00). The Gai Waterhouse Classic is no easier with Kinshachi the favourite at $5.00 but I could easily see a roughie getting up in this race.
Tip: Ipswich race 4 No. 12 Darktown Strutter ($5.50)
AFL footy tipsters had another tough round last week when only three of the seven favourites won, and one of those, Melbourne, got an almighty fright before coming from well behind to win by 4 points against Collingwood. The upset win by Carlton over GWS was predicted by some as the Blues firmed from $5.00 in to $3.90, and that loss by the Giants has seen them replaced (again) by Adelaide as flag favourite’s. The Crows are back in to $3.75, narrowly ahead of the Giants at $4.00, then Geelong at $6.50. Richmond are the ‘sleeping giant’ and currently $17. Whilst on Richmond, Dustin Martin is the favourite to win the Brownlow Medal at $3.50 ahead of Paddy Dangerfield at $3.75. GWS’ Josh Kelly is now on the fifth line at $11, and there are several UBET customers who would be happy with that, having secured themselves $251 before the season started.
This week is another split round with six games due to be played, and there is only one raging favourite, and that is Port Adelaide ($1.05) to beat Brisbane ($10). On last week’s performances by both sides it seems a short price and line (-57.5) for Port, but most expect them to bounce back in style.
Richmond look the real deal this year, but surprisingly are slight outsiders against Sydney at the MCG on Saturday. The Swans look like they have returned to their best after a horror start to the season, but the early shoppers with UBET are keen on the $2.08 for Richmond, so much so that the price has moved in to $1.95.
The Western Bulldogs need to get their season back on the rails after some ordinary performances, but they also face a danger game against Melbourne on Sunday. The Bulldogs are warm favourites at $1.45, and that price has been popular as the Doggies will be suited by a longer break from last week, and the fact that the Demons struggle at Etihad.
Tip: Geelong to beat West Coast ($1.81)
Unlike the lead up to Origin 1, when the Blues were all the rage with punters, a quiet confidence is building about the Maroons ahead of game 2 in Sydney. $2.55 into $2.25 since they announced future immortals Billy Slater and Johnathan Thurston would be back, Queensland has actually overtaken New South Wales in terms of money held. Can the Maroons send the series to a decider? The UBET money trail says yes.
Round 15 looks skinny on paper, with several teams missing their top flight stars. Still, there’s a winner to be found in each of the four clashes and punters are warming to the challenge, particularly the Friday Night game. Souths have absolutely been smashed in from $1.50 to $1.32 to beat the injury-riddled Gold Coast, including a bet of $10,000 on the Bunnies at $1.35. The pride of Redfern is also being backed to exclusion at the 10.5-point line, which has already ballooned by four points.
On Saturday, with so many State Of Origin stars unavailable, punters are largely keeping their powder dry in the Storm-Cowboys clash. That said, we expect the money to come for Melbourne, who arguably boast a stronger second-tier line-up. Cronulla go into their contest with Wests without the likes of Fifita, Maloney and Graham. Punters however still think the Sharks can steamroll the Tigers, as they’ve done the last three times they’ve gone into battle.
$1.75 in to $1.70, Parra is a popular anchor selection for weekend multis. The Eels have an enviable recent record against St George, winning and covering in their last five contests.
Tip: Melbourne -2.5 v Nth QLD ($1.90)
The Wallabies broke a three match losing streak when beating Fiji 37-14 last week. It will go down as a win, but it was scratchy. Those who took the line plus for Fiji got the cash. That line was backed from 29 in to 24 points start.
The Australians will be in Melbourne this week to take on Scotland, and with the Scots having three players away on duty with the British Lions, they are not expected to win. They’ve been priced accordingly at $5.50, with the opening line set at 14.5 points start. The Wallabies have won three of the last four games against Scotland, but those wins, and the loss to the Scots, have all been tight with the winning margin less than 6 points. The last three matches have seen an average of 50 points scored per match, so that might be an option to look at when the totals are posted.
The Lions tour continues in New Zealand, and the Kiwi sides have proven more than a handful having won two of the three matches played so far. The first test will be on Saturday week but there is a stack of interest in the NZ Maoris v Lions match this Saturday. The Maoris have opened as $2.50 underdogs but most of the early betting has centred on them as opposed to the Lions at $1.53.
Tip: NZ Maoris +4.5 v British and Irish Lions ($1.90)
Dustin Johnson won the US Open last year, and while he is the favourite to win at Erin Hills, Wisconsin, this week, he has been a drifter in the betting. Erin Hills is expected to be a testing course, and while that might explain the set against Johnson ($8.00 out to $9.00), his wife is also due to give birth at any time, and that would be an obvious distraction. Rory McIlroy won the Open in 2011 and is on the second line of betting at $13, a price he shares with Jason Day. The Aussie has a terrific record in the Open and has been slowly getting back into some decent form. Of those at the head of the market, he is the clear standout with UBET punters. Jordan Spieth ($15) is another who has won the Open before. There has also been really good interest in Jon Rahm ($21) who is tipped by many to eventually win a major, and this looks a good opportunity for him.
Tip: Jason Day to win the US Open ($13)
The inaugural Suncorp Super Netball Grand Final will be played in Brisbane on Saturday night, and the big shock is that the Melbourne Vixens will be missing. The Vixens had been odds-on for several weeks to win the title, but were beaten by the Sunshine Coast Lightning in the major semi-final which meant that they then had to take the hard path through to the final. They then came up short against the Giants last week, so it will be the Lightning who will face up to the Giants, who’s playing roster is laden with plenty of experience. Only 1 point separated these sides in the two previous meetings in 2017 (Lightning 54-Giants 55 in R4, Giants 55-Lightning 56 in R14), so both times the ‘away’ side has won. The Giants come off a week’s rest and they have been the early money side, $2.20 into $2.15, with the Lightning out to $1.70 from $1.65.
Tip: Giants to beat the Sunshine Coast Lightning ($2.15)
Misano, Italy, is where the superbikes will be in action this weekend. While Jonathan Rea has a stranglehold on the title betting ($1.02), he did prove at the last meeting in the UK he can be beaten. Tom Sykes won race 1 at Donnington but things returned to normal when Rea won race 2, beating Sykes. Misano is a test course, so all know their way around there. Rea will be a short priced fav for race 1 when betting goes up having won both races here last year as well as his dominant form this season. Sykes finished second in both of those races, and judging on what we saw in the UK, if he can grab pole position, then perhaps he is a winning chance again.
Tip: Jonathan Rea to win race 1
The Supercars will be in the Top End this week for two races, one on Saturday of 42 laps around the Hidden Valley course, and a second race on Sunday over the longer trip of 70 laps. Darwin is a unique event as the humidity can play a major part and we have seen a lot of upsets there over the years. Michael Caruso won race 1 there last year as an outsider, and is $51 to repeat the dose again this year. Shane Van Gisbergen won race 2 before going on to win the Drivers Championship in 2016, and while he has had trouble recapturing that form this year, the popular Kiwi is well in commission at $4.25 behind public elect Scotty McLaughlin at $3.50. For those who wait until qualifying is over before having a wager, it is worth noting that of the last 21 races held In Darwin, only 5 have been won by the drivers who qualified fastest to land pole position.
Tip: Shane Van Gisbergen to win Darwin Triple Crown race 1 ($4.25)
The Tour de France is not far away, and in big news, we have a new favourite. It’s an Aussie! Tasmania’s Richie Porte is in to $2.30 after being at $8.00 when the original market opened three months ago. At that stage Chris Froome was $1.80 but is out to $2.50, with Nairo Quintana the only other rider given any consideration at $7.50. There will be several other markets opening in the next 10 days so keep an eye on the website for those.
* Prices are correct midday Thursday.