GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – FRIDAY 19TH MAY
There’s going to be betting action aplenty this weekend with the two exciting group 1’s, the Doomben Cup and The Goodwood.
The Doomben Cup is a weight-for-age affair over the 2000m and the favourite is It’s Somewhat at $4.00. The Goldolphin-trained 6YO has won his last three, including the group 1 Doncaster Mile and looks difficult to beat. In saying that, there has been good early money for the Victorian visitor Articus ($4.20) and the Kris Lees-trained Sense of Occasion ($10). There is also an early push from UBET punters for Maurus ($12) and the roughie Rudy ($26).
The Goodwood is South Australia’s most prestigious sprint race. It’s run over 1200m under set weight conditions. It’s an interesting betting race so far, with the Weir-trained favourite Black Heart Bart in from $3.60 to $3.50. Others met with early support include Malaguerra ($9.00 in to $8.50) and Vega Magic, with sizeable bets on him at the $7.00. There is also a sprinkling of money for the roughies Santa Ana Lane ($26 in to $21) and Kaepernick ($31 in to $26).
Tip: Articus to win the Doomben Cup ($4.20)
League fans can’t wait for Friday Night Footy, and it starts with St George ($2.35) heading across the ditch to take on the Warriors. 12 of their last 13 have gone the way of the ‘Red V’ and the money trail suggests a similar result here. St George +5.5 is also a popular selection with punters. Meanwhile, in the second game, money is pouring in for the Broncos straight up at $1.22 and also at the -14.5 line. Brisbane has beaten and covered against Wests in six of their last seven clashes and this week finally let Mitch Moses walk.
Origin Game 1 is just around the corner and, at this stage, Queensland is the $1.75 favourite with New South Wales $2.15. So much, however, depends on the availability of Johnathan Thurston and the fitness of his troubled shoulders. If JT ends up being ruled out, those prices could very well flip.
Tip: St George +4.5 against the Warriors ($1.75)
AFL tipsters have had a torrid start to the season and it continued last week. Only five of the favourites were able to win and only one of those covered the line…Port Adelaide over the Suns.
Both of those sides who played in Shanghai have been given a bye this week, so there will only be eight games, and there are some interesting matches to look at. The Bulldogs have been good considering their injury list and Geelong have been ordinary in their last three appearances, losing them all. But, the early money is with the Cats this week. The opening $2.10 didn’t last long and, the continued support has seen Geelong into $1.95 with the Bulldogs out to $1.85. St Kilda are now considered a real threat for the flag ($17). While Sydney looked good in their win on Sunday over the Roos, punters expect St Kilda to beat the Swans this week. There was a solid move for them early in the week as well, firming quickly from $1.78 in to $1.70.
Brisbane haven’t been in a position to cope with added injuries, but that is where they find themselves this week. Although they’re at home and are facing up to a Crows side that has suffered two bad losses in a row, the money says it will be a long night for the Lions on Saturday night. They are $7.50 to win, but the early line push has been for Adelaide conceding 45.5 points start ($1.90).
Those losses by the Crows have seen GWS back in to flag favourites at $3.75 and the Crows are out to $4.25. The Bulldogs are $6.00 but many aren’t prepared to take that right at the moment. It’s a different story with Port Adelaide as Port are back to their best, now $8.00, and they have been the best backed side this week in premiership action.
In Brownlow Medal moves, Rory Sloane is back out to $5.00 after a couple of quiet weeks, the Western Bulldogs’ Marcus Bontempelli is closing in on favouritism at $7.00, and Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn) along with Josh Kelly (GWS) both entered discussions at $26.
Tip: Richmond +23.5 against GWS
The last few rounds of Super Rugby have been a lot less predictable with the Kings providing another huge upset last week when beating the Sharks as $5.50 outsiders, then a few hours later the Force ($4.50) defeated the Jaguares in Argentina. The irony of those two wins would not be lost on many, as both of these sides have been in the firing line to be turfed out of the competition going forward.
Anyway, they are still there for the time being and no doubt will have a say in the makeup of the finals if they can maintain that form. The Kings have now won three in a row, hard to believe I know, and they have to be a big chance of making it four in a row on Saturday night when they host the Brumbies. The Kings are the $2.45 outsiders but the early players are keen on them at that quote. The Brumbies are on a four game losing streak, but need a win in their quest to win the Australian conference, so it’s a very important match.
The Crusaders went on their merry winning way last week and will be in action against the Chiefs on Friday night. While the Chiefs are the ‘home’ side, it is worth pointing out that this game will be played in Suva. This is the first time a Super Rugby match has been played in the Pacific Islands. The Chiefs have won six of the last seven clashes against the Crusaders and although they are the slight $2.25 underdogs, that is where the early money has gone in preference to the Crusaders at $1.65.
There will be another Sunday afternoon game this week when the Waratahs host the Rebels in Sydney. The Tahs have won five of their last six matches against the Rebels, but have now lost four in a row at home, and have really failed to deliver this season. They are still in the mix to win the Aussie conference and there has been plenty of news around surrounding the Rebels and their fight for survival, making the Waratahs very popular through multis at $1.17.
Tip: Stormers to win against the Blues ($1.90)
Si Woo Kim broke plenty of records in winning the Players Championship last weekend. The youngster has guaranteed his future with the win as a $501 outsider in The Players. Although he lives in Dallas, he will be taking this week off from the Byron Nelson. Dustin Johnson is $3.25 after round 1 and favourite to win the Byron Nelson, with Jordan Spieth at $9.00 and Sergio Garcia at $67. Garcia is the defending champion and not surprisingly he has been quite popular on the back of his win in The Masters. The shortest of the Australians is Jason Day at $11 and Australians have a good record in this event. Day won back in 2010, Adam Scott (not playing this week) won in 2008, and of course Steven Bowditch won in 2015, but his quote of $501 this week is a reflection of his form over the last 18 months.
Tip: Dustin Johnston to win the Byron Nelson ($3.25)
Market: https://ubet.com/sports/golf/pga-tour - LIVE
The French Open lost one of its big drawcards this week when Roger Federer decided to give it a miss to concentrate on Wimbledon. We all know Federer’s least favourite surface is clay, but with so many of the other hopes struggling with form, we thought he had some hope. All that’s done is create a lot more interest in Rafael Nadal, who is now odds on at $1.70, so his price is a mirror image of what it was several years ago before he started to struggle with knee injuries. On current form, he is entitled to be that short and maybe even that is over the odds. Novak Djokovic is out to $6.00, and there are no takers, and a struggling Andy Murray has blown like the north wind, now $11 with absolutely no interest at all. As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, Dominic Thiem is the one who continues to firm in betting, now solid at $11.
The betting on the women’s title has taken another twist with $5.50 co-favourite Maria Sharapova now likely to be out of the French after failing to be handed a wildcard into the tournament.
Tip: Nadal to win the French open ($1.68)
Le Mans, France, will host the motoGP this week and with Dani Pedrosa winning the last race in Spain, the title has opened up somewhat. Maverick Vinales and Valentino Rossi finished out of the placing’s there. Vinales and Marc Marquez now head up the title betting at $2.10, ahead of Rossi at $6.00, with Pedrosa now in the mix at $10. Jorge Lorenzo has had a shocking start to the season and is now $451, but has won the last two years at Le Mans, so it will be interesting to see if he can find some form this week. Marquez won here back in 2014 and although he has finished out of a place the last 2 years, he has opened $2.50, slightly behind Vinales at $3.00. Rossi is next in line at $4.50 and Pedrosa looks value at $13.
Tip: Marquez to win the French motoGP ($3.50)
Winton, in the north east of Victoria, will be a hive of activity this week when the Supercars roll into town. The purpose built course is one of the main testing tracks around Australia, so all of the drivers are familiar with the course. The will be 2 races, one of 40 laps on Saturday, and the other of 67 laps on Sunday. Scott McLaughlin and Fabian Coulthard are co $3.50 favourites to win race 1 on Saturday, and behind that pair Jamie Whincup and Shane Van Gisbergen share the next line at $5.25. McLaughlin won both races in Perth at the last meet, defeating Coulthard in race 1 and Chaz Mostert in race 2, with Whincup finishing 3rd in both races. McLaughlin is flying at the moment, and is clearly the one to beat, but this circuit has a history of throwing up strange results. Tim Slade appeared out of nowhere to win last year as a huge outsider and then backed up on the Sunday to win again, and although we have rarely sighted Slade since, there has been some interest in him this week at $34.
Tip: Van Gisbergen to win the supersprint race 1 ($5.25) - great wet weather driver!