GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 4TH MAY
The 2017 Adelaide festival of racing kicks off with Oaks Day at Morphettville racecourse and this is a big day for the fillies, both on and off the track. There are five group races on the fantastic 8-race card and the two Group 1 features are the SA Oaks aka the Australasian Oaks and the million dollar UBET Classic aka the Robert Sangster Sakes.
The Oaks over the 2010m is under set weight conditions and we see a few locals but many interstate visitors. This race lends itself to fillies with the runs on the board, so with that in mind, I think the Weir-trained favourite Kenedna ($3.20) should be too classy and she’ll make it three wins in a row. Others in the market include the Waller-trained Egg Tart ($4.00) who has won her last four, Toffee Nose ($8.00) who has to contend with the wide gate and the NZ visitor Savvy Dreams ($13).
The UBET Classic is over the 1200m and is a WFA affair. Joao Moreira takes the ride on Sheidel ($5.50) and from the wide draw is going to have to weave some magic. But they don’t call him the Magic Man for nothing! English ($4.80) is the favourite and there’s nothing wrong with her form and it it really looks a race in two. Both have unfavourable draws so I think the winner is the one who gets the best run in transit. Other contenders here include Super Cash ($8.00), I Am A Star ($8.00) and many other chances hover around the $12 dollar mark.
The Queensland Winter Racing Carnival is heating up too this week as we travel down to the Gold Coast for Hollindale Stakes Day. On the super 8-race program other races to look forward to include two exciting Group 3’s, the Gold Coast Guineas (1200m) and the Ken Russell Memorial Classic (1200m).
The Hollindale Stakes is an 1800m Group 2 race and is the second leg of the quaddie. The Doncaster Mile winner It’s Somewhat is the favourite and looks well placed here. The Goldolphin runner opened up $3.30 with UBET, now out to $3.40. The 6YO knows how to win and he comes off a strong trial too. Drawn barrier 3 he maps beautifully up on the speed, looking very tough to beat. Other chances include McCreery ($5.00) and Sense Of Occasion ($6.00) with the Doncaster form. Single Gaze ($7.00) and Cylinder Beach ($8.50) are the only other two still in single digits.
Tip: Kenedna to win the SA Oaks ($3.20)
It’s all about the South Australian sides this week!
The Crows are in to $3.25 (clear favourite) to win the flag, Port have been slashed to $8.00, and the talk is an all SA Grand Final, although GWS might have something to say about that. At the start of the season the opening Port/Crows quinella market (both teams to make the Grand Final) was $81 and now it’s in to $9.00. Rory Sloane has been propelled in to the $4.00 favourite to win the Brownlow and it’s the first time Patrick Dangerfield hasn’t been favourite since round 2 last season. UBET’s internal numbers suggest Sloane could be leading the count on 12 votes after 6 rounds. Sloane has always been well up in Brownlow betting, he was $17 before the season started, and was backed then, and that support has continued each week. He is a proven vote getter who stands out in a winning side, so he ticks all the boxes. One UBET customer has been taken by the form of the Crows as he placed $10,000 on them to win the minor premiership at $2.25. On current form it is hard to see where, or when, Adelaide will lose their first game. Port were $13 last week and $21 the week before that but opened this week at $8.00 and there is money for them at that price.
There has also been a lot of focus (again) on the fall down the ladder for both Sydney and Hawthorn. Oddly enough, both sides are now a similar price to make the final 8 as what they were to win the flag before the opening round. The Swans are $5.50 to make the 8 (were $6.50 for flag), and the Hawks are $8 to make the finals, the same as their flag price was. Both sides will need to win 12 games (maybe 13 if % is poor) to make the finals, a big task indeed.
With the NRL having this week off due to Rep footy, we expect a very busy betting round is ahead of us. St Kilda destroyed Hawthorn last week, and given they play their best footy at Etihad, there has been good support for them at $2.75, and particularly with 14.5 points start ($1.90) against the Giants on Friday night. The Giants just managed to ground out the win over the Bulldogs in Canberra, and this will be a real test for them.
Sydney are the equal of Adelaide at $1.14 to win this week, which would you rather be on? Strangely there is more multi money going through the Swans to beat Brisbane than what there is for the Crows to beat North Melbourne. Clearly most UBET AFL fans think the Swans will chalk up win number 1, and it will be easy, as the line moved from -35.5 to -39.5 early in the week.
Tip: St Kilda +14.5 against GWS ($1.90)
Cam Smith chalks up 50 caps for Australia tomorrow (Friday) night in the Anzac Test and, in a positive sign, the market suggests the skipper will celebrate the milestone with a win. Only one other player in the history of the game, the great Darren Lockyer, has cracked the half tonne, so the evergreen Melbourne Storm rake is certainly a champion of the game.
Australia has won six of seven Anzac Tests this decade and head into this as well-backed $1.38 favourites. One punter lobbed $10,000 on the Kangaroos earlier this week to turn a profit of $3,800, which was just one of several sizeable bets on the hosts. The history books all point to an Australian win. The Aussies beat the Kiwis by 20-points last time they met in Canberra in 2013 and Kangaroos fullback Darius Boyd has won all 22 of his international tests for Australia. New Zealand is getting next to no love straight up at $3.10, but they have been subject to support with the 8.5 head start, so it is not all doom and gloom those from the shaky isles.
UBET also has a suite of markets open on the Tonga-Fiji and England-Samoa internationals on Saturday as well as the NSW City-Country Origin contest being played in Mudgee on Sunday. Country have been installed as slight $1.80 favourites with City at $2.00, but with this being the last ever contest and with all the selection drama this week, punters are keeping their powder dry at this stage.
Tip: Country to beat the City ($1.80)
Two weeks ago we made mention that the multi dividend for all 8 favourites to win was around the $2.20 mark, the shortest ever. Lo and behold the Waratahs went down to the Kings in one of the biggest upsets ever. The upcoming round looks very similar on paper, and early in the week the multi dividend calculated out at around $2.45, and on exposed form it is hard to put a case up for any of the underdogs. Having said that, perhaps the Waratahs might be the one at $3.25, or +6.5 at the line. This is the closest betting game of the round. A good stat in their favour is that the ‘home’ side has won the last 7 times between the Tahs and the Blues. The Blues have only lost to NZ sides this season, and while they may well miss the finals, their form has been as good as most others in the competition apart from those other Kiwi sides.
The Jaguares have been disappointing recently with 4 losses in a row. They will be at home this weekend and are the shortest priced fav at $1.03 to beat the Sunwolves, with the line a big 26.5 points start. The Sunwolves have lost 12 in a row away from home, but did cover the big lines in both of their matches in NZ, and it is worth mentioning that the only time these sides met, the Sunwolves won 36-28.
Tip: Waratahs +6.5 against the Blues ($1.85)
Cameron Smith’s win in the Zurich Classic catapulted Australian golf back into the headlines. Smith won the team event with Jonas Blixt from Sweden, and apart from the win of $USD1m each, Smith now has a 2 year exemption on the tour.
Punters reacted quickly to that win by launching into Smith to win the Wells Fargo Championship this week, but unfortunately Smith has decided to take the week off, so punters get a full refund. This event will be played at the Eagle Point GC in Wilmington, North Carolina, with the normal course, Hollow Pont, being rested for the PGA Championship later in the year. Dustin Johnson heads the market at $5.50 with Jon Rahm on the second line of betting at $12, then follows Paul Casey ($19) and Adam Scott ($19). Johnson is the world number 1 and has strung together some impressive wins, so is definitely the one to beat.
The European Tour event this week will be the Golf Sixes, to be played at the Centurion Club, St Albans, in the UK. This is a team match play event, played over two days (Sat/Sun), comprising a Greensomes format (teams select their best tee shot and then play alternate shot).
On Saturday the teams will be split into four groups of four, with the top two teams from each group progressing to the knockout stages, i.e., the quarter-finals, the semi-finals, a 3rd/4th place play-off match and the final. These will all be contested on the Sunday.
Tip: Dustin Johnston to win the Well Fargo Championship ($5.50)
Valtteri Bottas drove to his maiden win after 80 races in Sochi, Russia on Sunday, and that win by Bottas over Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen has opened up the Drivers’ Championship race. With Lewis Hamilton missing a place, Vettel is now in to $1.70 to win the title ahead of Hamilton at $2.40, with Bottas now entering discussions at $7.50. The next F1 race will be in Spain the weekend after this, all of a sudden the pressure is on Hamilton!
Marc Marquez won the motoGP event in Texas last start and he opens as the slight $2.50 favourite ahead of Maverick Vinales ($2.75) to win the Spanish GP this week. Both will be keen to win their home country GP, but veteran Valntino Rossi ($4.00) will have a big say in the result. Rossi finished second to Marquez in Texas, won the Spanish in 2016 and finished on the podium behind Jorge Lorenzo (2015) and Marquez in 2014.
Tip: Vinales to win the Spanish Grand Prix ($2.40)
Barbagallo will host the Supercars for the Perth Supersprint series this weekend. The format will be the same as last year with just the 2 races, one of 50 laps on Saturday, then the second of 83 laps on Sunday. Craig Lowndes has a wonderful record in the West, having won 16 races there and he won race 1 here last year. The other race went to Mark Winterbottom, but it would be fair to say that neither have been in sparkling form this season. It is close at the top of betting for race 1 with Shane Van Gisbergen and Scot McLaughlin narrow $4.25 favourites ahead of Jamie Whincup ($4.75) and Fabian Coulthard ($4.75). Coulthard won at Phillip Island a couple of weeks ago as did Chaz Mostert, with Mostert recording his first victory in over a year and he’s at the $9.00 quote.
Tip: McLaughlin to win the Perth Supersprint ($4.25)
Manny Pacquiao’s trip to Australia last week to promote his July 2 bout against Jeff Horn certainly created plenty of betting activity, but not much of it was for ‘the Pacman’. In the past 7 days, fans of the Aussie underdog have invested close to $10,000 on Horn which has seen a price change from $4.25 to $4.15. Normally in these big bouts, those who are keen on the short priced favourites (Pacquiao is $1.22) tend to wait until the week of the fight before putting their money down, and this fight shouldn’t be any different.
It’s NBA finals time! Golden State took the stick to the Jazz in Game 1 on their Conference Semi Final series the other day and the feeling among punters is, the broom may be the next implement Curry, Durant, Thompson and Co. decide to use. Before the win, the Warriors were $2.50 to take the series in a 4-0 clean sweep. Now they’re odds on.
Golden State is also a short $1.45 to take all before them and claim the NBA Championship and you’d have to be either brave (or, dare we say, foolish) to back against them. That said, plenty are. LeBron James and the Cavaliers have no shortage of admirers at the $4.25 and there’s also some support for the Rockets at $13. Houston can beat any team on their day including the Warriors and their so-called ‘line-up of death’. The Rockets live by the three, die by the three and thrive by the three. Playoffs are continuing daily, see UBET markets for updates.