GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 6TH APRIL
Week 1 of the new AFL season saw some big upsets when only 4 of the 9 fav’s won, and the dividend for all winners was roughly $1,060 for a $1 outlay. I commented at the time that the price for the 9 winners was one of the biggest on record in AFL, but it only took another 2 weeks to completely obliterate those numbers. Round 3 also saw only 4 fav’s win, but this time the dividend for a $1 outlay was around the $1,900 mark, depending on when (and if) you took that multi. If you did find all 9 winners, well done!
The shock results have seen a major shake-up to all ‘futures’ markets. GWS are still flag favourites at $4.25 with Adelaide now clear 2nd picks at $5.00 after winning the Showdown. It is hard to believe that both Sydney and Hawthorn are winless after 3 rounds, and the Swans have blown out to $15 with Hawthorn an even longer quote at $26. The other side yet to win a game is North Melbourne and they have attracted support this week at $7.00 to finish at the bottom of the ladder come year’s end. Patrick Dangerfield firmed from $5.00 into $4.50 this week to win the Brownlow Medal, but most of the bets have been for Richmond’s Dustin Martin ($5.50) and Nat Fyfe ($13), who was one of the main catalysts behind the shock win by Fremantle.
The Swans travel to Perth on Thursday night, and although they have won 9 of their last 10 against the Eagles, punters don’t want a bar of them at $2.75. AFL will be played for the first time on Good Friday this year, and while North Melbourne are the $4.00 outsiders to beat the Bulldogs, there has been money for the Roos with 25.5 points start at $1.90. Port Adelaide were backed for a small fortune to beat Adelaide last Saturday night, and more often than not sides in the Showdown have an ‘off’ week the next round. UBET punters think that the same thing will happen to Port this week as they have been friendless at $3.55 to beat the GWS, and there is also a stack of money for the Giants to beat the 23.5 point line. On the flip side, the impressive form of the Crows has seen an avalanche of money arrive for them to beat Essendon, and easily. The Bombers were beaten by Carlton in atrocious conditions on Sunday, that’s a negative, and they are on a shorter back-up. The Crows have already been $1.29 into $1.20, and the line quickly moved from -29.5 to -34.5 in the first 24 hours of betting.
Tip: Collingwood to beat St Kilda ($1.82)
Queenslanders initially feared the worst when Jonathan Thurston limped off the field last week, but there was an almost audible, state-wide exhale when it was revealed his calf complaint would only sideline him for up to four weeks. Despite this, the ordeal did cause a minor shift in our State of Origin 2017 Series market, with the Blues trimmed from $2.15 to $2.00 and the Maroons turned out from $1.75 to $1.80.
Big brother meets little brother in the annual M1 Derby tomorrow (Thursday) and the mantra from Broncos’ backers seems to be, ‘no Ben Hunt, no worries.’ Early bird punters snapped up the early $1.25 about Brisbane and they’re chipping away at the -12.5 line too. At this stage, there’s no interest in the Titans.
Saturday sees the ladder leading Dragons do battle with the injury-crippled Cowboys and value shoppers are steaming into St George at the line. It went up 4.5, but it has already ballooned a full five points to 9.5, as mustard-keen punters climb over themselves to put money on the minus. Their interest is understandable; without Thurston, the Cowboys have won just three of their last 13 games.
Round 7 wraps up on Easter Monday with $1.65 pops the Eels tackling the Tigers. Was it the ‘new coach effect’ last round, or did Wests’ so-called ‘Big 4’ finally deliver on the buzz? League punters seem to think the latter and are lobbing on the Tigers at $2.25 to land another upset win.
Tip: Penrith to beat Cronulla ($1.75)
After 27 entertaining rounds, the regular season wraps up this weekend and, with the six finals-bound teams already locked in, all that remains is a jostle for finishing positions. As it stands, Melbourne City, Brisbane Roar and Perth Glory can all finish anywhere from third to sixth, while the Western Sydney Wanderers can climb as high as fifth.
The action starts on Friday with the Victory against the Mariners and continues Saturday with Newcastle-Sydney and Adelaide-Western Sydney, but it’s fair to Sunday is most important in terms of finals calculations. After going down to Perth last week, the Roar will be keen to build some momentum with a win over Wellington ($5.00) and, even though the Phoenix held Sydney to a 1-1 draw last week, the market fully expects Brisbane to salute at $1.63. A win by four or more goals with see Perth leapfrog City on the table and, because of this, there’s some interest in the Over 4.5 Goals at $4.20.
Tip: Perth Glory to beat Melbourne City ($2.30)
It has been a tumultuous week in Super Rugby and the whole saga drags on as the Western Force and Melbourne Rebels wait to see which of them will be cut in 2018. There has been a lot of talk around why the Sunwolves and Jaguares were not consigned to the scrap-heap, but they are still there, and the shock win by the Sunwolves last week was timely indeed. The Japanese side were an $8.00 outsider against the Bulls, but edged the South Africans out which led to some amazing scenes in Tokyo. Five of the seven favourites won last week, but only one of those was able to cover the line.
While the Sunwolves got that win against the odds last week, they play the Crusaders in NZ on Friday, and ironically will go in with the biggest line start in the history of Super Rugby! The Sunwolves will be in receipt of 38.5 points start against the Crusaders, and UBET punters are happy to be on the minus.
The Southern Kings are another side who are tipped to be missing from the 2018 season, and they will be in Brisbane on Saturday to play the Reds. The bad news for the Kings is that while the Reds have also been struggling, Quade Cooper returns and his side has been installed as hot $1.08 favs with a line of -17.5 points.
The Brumbies look like they are on track to win the Australian Conference, and all four of their wins this season have been against the other Australian sides. The early money is with them at $1.25 to beat the Rebels in Melbourne on Saturday night, but the Rebels did show enough at home when run down by the Waratahs a few weeks ago to say they can be competitive here, or at the very least are worth a little play with 8.5 points start ($1.95)
Tip: Rebels +8.5 versus Brumbies ($1.90)
Lewis Hamilton dominated the Chinese Grand Prix on Sunday to chalk up his first win of the season after finishing 2nd to Sebastian Vettel in Melbourne a couple of weeks ago. They’ll be on the quick back-up in Bahrain this week, and this is another of those F1 races that the betting public really warm to as it’s raced at night. Nico Rosberg won last year defeating Kimi Raikkonen with Hamilton winding up in 3rd place, but it is worth noting that he was the fastest qualifier. Hamilton also won there in 2014 and 2015, with Vettel winning in 2012 and 2013, so both have form on the circuit, and all of those races have been under lights. The nod for favouritism this week has gone to Hamilton at $1.90 just ahead of Vettel at $2.50, with a decent gap to Valtteri Bottas ($8.00 and Raikkonen at $9.00), while Daniel Ricciardo, who finished 4th in China, is a $31 chance.
Tip: Lewis Hamilton ($1.90)
Sergio Garcia finally cracked it for a Major when he won the US Masters at Augusta and he had to do it the hard way in terrific final day’s play where he and Justin Rose each had a share of the lead before going to a playoff. To be honest, while Garcia has had a solid 12 months, his Major form suggested that he probably should have been at a longer quote than the $41 he was prior to the Masters getting under way, but he’s a hugely popular player with Aussie golf punters. The US Open will be the next Major and Garcia is $26 to win. Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy share favouritism at $9.00 ahead of Jason Day at $10.00, but most of the early money has been with Jordan Spieth ($10), Justin Thomas ($31) and Thomas Pieters ($67), who showed at the Masters he has a big win in him.
This week’s US PGA Tour event is the RBC Heritage which will be played at Hilton Head, South Carolina. Nearly all of the big names take the week off after the Maters, but a few will be backing up including $15 favourite (and 2014 winner) Matt Kuchar. Kuchar finished in a tie for 4th with Pieters at Augusta and has had backing here along with Branden Grace ($26) and Russell Henley ($26), who both also played well last week.
Tip: Branden Grace ($26)
It appears the love/hate relationship that the Australian public have with Nick Kyrgios has taken a turn for the better, after Australia made it through to the semi-finals of the Davis Cup. It was an enthralling round of the Cup, and the first up performance of Jordan Thompson in beating Jack Sock when a $4.00 outsider set up what proved to be a big result for Aussie tennis, as we were the $2.05 outsiders to win the tie. That will see a semi-final showdown with Belgium, which most would agree is the softer part of the draw. Serbia are the new $2.75 favourites ahead of France ($3.00), Australia ($3.25) with Belgium the outsiders at $10.00
The Manny Pacquiao v Jeff Horn is on again after several hiccups and July 2 has been pencilled in as the day these two will come together to fight for the WBO World Welterweight Title. When the initial bout was spoken about (that was to take place in a couple of weeks’ time) the markets were open for a couple of weeks and it was clear by the early action that this will be the biggest betting fight ever held in Australia. Those bets were refunded and we started again this week, with Pacquiao a hot $1.22 favourite and Horn at $4.30. The early rush has been with the local hope, and that was to be expected. All of the facts and figures point towards Pacquiao being the victor, but nobody really knows how good and tough Horn is, and he will have the majority of the 55,000+ crowd in his corner, which will be a big advantage.
Cricket has been on the backburner for the past couple of weeks since the test series in India finished, but the Ashes isn’t far away, so we’ve opened up the Ashes Series market. The first test will be at the Gabba on November 23 and Australia are $1.60 to win the best of 5 series ahead of England at $3.50 and a drawn series the outsider at $6.00. England won the last series which was held over there in 2015 and are $2.30 to retain the Ashes in a separate market with Australia $1.60. The Aussies did win on home soil in 2013/14 but with so many changes to both sides over the last year or so, it looks set to be a super series.
The time honoured Stawell Gift will be run and won over the Easter weekend, and UBET will have a market up on the final on Thursday. There are always plenty of early moves on the Gift when those markets appear, and they’ll re-open after the heats are run on Saturday. UBET will also have markets on the semi-finals which will be run on Monday with the final to be held shortly after the semis.
There’ll be plenty of feature races at Wentworth Park on Saturday night and fixed odds are available on those races already.
The Association Cup final will be run over the longer trip of 720 metres and interstate raiders Trip To Eden ($2.70) and Bogie Bekim ($2.75) head the betting with local hope Ebby Ripper next in line at $5.00. Bogie Bekim has a Group 1 win under his belt, having won the Galaxy in Perth, and although he was the fastest heat winner, there’s a view he’d be better suited by a wider draw. Trip To Eden can also be a little tardy early and, while Ebby Ripper hasn’t been racing with much luck, this might be her race.
The Golden Easter Egg is dominated by Victoria, who’ll provide 5 runners in the final, including the first 2 in the market. Up Hill Jill ($2.60) and Striker Light ($3.80) ran similar times in the semis and have similar racing patterns; both are speedy beginners who race at their best when in front. There are a couple of others in there capable of holding that pair out, namely Mack Tux ($5.50) in the red box and youngster Lucky Chap ($6.00) drawn in box 3. There must be a good chance of an upset in the Egg, the value looks to be with Big Flood ($8.00) and Aqua Cheetah ($15).
Tip: Ebby Ripper to win the Association Cup ($5.00)
Winx goes for a well-earned rest now after recording her 17th win in a row at Randwick on Saturday in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The champion mare will return in the Spring to try and equal Kingston Town’s record of 3 Cox Plate wins, and while October 28 is still a long way away, it would be a brave person to argue that she won’t get the job done. Winx opened at $2.60 when the first Cox Plate market was opened early in February, and there has been a constant stream of four figure bets coming through since then. She’s now $1.75 to win the Cox Plate, the shortest price ever for a Spring Carnival Group race so far out from being run, and there’s absolutely zero interest in any of the others in the ‘all-in’ market.