GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 6TH APRIL
The US Masters is a little like the Melbourne Cup of sport. That is, we see a lot of people coming out of the woodwork just to have a flutter on one of the world’s great sporting contests. It is always interesting to see who those punters align themselves with and it normally isn’t one of the favoured players. This year the players attracting most of the bets away from those at the top of the betting have been Sergio Garcia ($41), Marc Leishman ($34), Louis Oosthuizen ($51) and Martin Kaymer ($126).
Up near the top it is clearly Jordan Spieth at $8.00, followed by Dustin Johnson ($9.50), Rory McIlroy ($8.50), Phil Mickelson ($29) and Adam Scott ($29).
The big news this morning of course is that Dustin Johnson has fallen down a flight of stairs several hours ago and is in some doubt. Naturally since that news got out, there has been a lack of interest in him, blowing out to $9.00 from his opening quote of $6.50. If he does start and can overcome his injury woes, it will be his second major championship win and his fourth tournament win in a row.
The Texan Jordan Speith, with the sharp short game, is a tough competitor but can you really take the $8.00? There’s so much talent and uncertainty at the Augusta National, I think the punters have it right, there’s far more value outside the favourites.
Jason Day has had an injury plagued year and we all know of the sad circumstances with his mother and her illness and punters are wary of taking the $15 for Day to win. Day is the $2.20 favourite in the ‘Top Aussie’ market, second favourite is Adam Scott ($2.80), but Marc Leishman at $3.75 is the one who has been most wanted by the punters.
The UBET Masters market will remain open for ‘live’ betting throughout all 4 days of play.
Tip: Marc Leishman to win the US Masters ($34)
Another action packed Saturday at Royal Randwick for day 2 of the Championships with four group 1 races. This is the last time we will see Winx race this autumn!
This weekend we have the Australian Oaks, Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Sydney Cup and the Legacy Stakes. The $4m weight-for-age Queen Elizabeth is the richest race of the Sydney autumn carnival. Most importantly, we get to see the five-year-old mare Winx back in action. Quite deserving of a royal title herself, she faces off against only eight opponents. She’s currently a short $1.10 and if successful she’ll rack up her 17th straight win and her 11th group 1 title. This race looks a formality for the superstar with only four of her rivals under $101. These are previous group 1 winners Hartnell ($11), The United States ($16), followed by Happy Clapper ($19) and Exospheric ($41). The short price has not stopped her loyal fans from jumping on and she’s already the anchor to a multitude of starry-eyed UBET punters’ multis. The favourite for the Sydney Cup is Big Duke. He’s down in the weights and was met with good early support. He now remains solid favourite at $3.00. A big watch is on the New Zealand visitor Bonneval ($4.20) in the Australian Oaks. The three-year-old filly has won her past three, including the NZ Oaks over the same distance and she looks to be something special.
We also have three group 2 races in Sydney, the Percy Sykes Stakes, Arrowfield Sprint for the three-year-olds and the Sapphire Stakes rounding out the big 10 race card. Global Glamour ($3.40) is the favourite in the Arrowfield Stakes and has met with a huge amount of support from UBET punters, shortening in from $3.90 with a huge bet of $3,600 on her at $3.80. The Percy Sykes Stakes now only has seven runners, as we saw many contestants eliminated due to the Golden Slipper being D-Day for many of the two-year-olds. The favourite here is Almanzora ($2.80) followed by Serena Bay ($3.90) and Shoals ($4.00).
There are also some talented non-metropolitan horses going around at Randwick in race 4 to contest the Provincial Championships Final. This Provincial Series has already proven to be a huge success and all the money in the final has been for the favourite Pomelo ($2.70), including a massive $4,500 bet on her at $2.85. The Gwenda Markwell-trained Mare has won four of her last five races and she should be leading the field again on Saturday and punters are telling us they will not be running her down.
Don’t forget, the metropolitan meeting in Queensland this Saturday is Toowoomba, with the Toowoomba Cup (2000m) and the listed Weetwood being the features. Support in the Weetwood so far has been for the Heathcote-trained Pinch River ($3.50 fav) and Trubia ($9.00 in to $6.50). In the Toowoomba Cup punters just can’t get enough of the Desleigh Foster-trained Cylinder Beach and the early price of $5.50 didn’t last long, he’s now in to $2.70.
Tip: Bonneval to win the Australian Oaks ($4.00)
Punters were right on target in round 2 in complete contrast to the opening round of the AFL. Eight of the nine favourites won last week with the only upset being Richmond’s win over Collingwood.
Sydney and Collingwood meet in Sydney on Friday night, talk about two sides under the pump. The Swans are red hot favourites to get on the board this week. Sydney are $1.30 while Collingwood are $3.55 and the line of -21.5 has been popular.
Melbourne travel to Geelong this week having lost Jesse Hogan and Jordan Lewis at the tribunal but get back Bernie Vince from suspension and UBET punters have taken a real set against the Demons. Geelong were very fortunate to get the four points against North Melbourne, punters don’t mind as they’ve already been backed in this match from $1.45 in to $1.40.
Showdown 42 looks like being something special in Adelaide this Saturday night. Both Port and Adelaide are undefeated and have both been impressive to date. The Showdown betting has been interesting, Adelaide are now $1.52 (out from $1.45) favourites (line of 14.5), with Port now $2.55 after opening $2.75. The ratio of money is running 4:1 in favour of Port and the individual bets are running 10:1 in their favour as well.
In ‘futures’ news, Carlton have joined Brisbane as the $3.00 favourites in the ‘most losses’ market, or to finish at the bottom of the table. The Crows are in to $6.00 to win the flag, now equal second picks with the Bulldogs. Port fans have been very active all week and their support has moved them in to $11 from $26. Essendon’s Zach Merrett polled 19 votes in the Brownlow last year, a terrific effort given the form of the Bombers and he may well be on target for a lot more votes this season. Merrett may have 6 votes already and has been $41 in to $15 to win the Brownlow since betting markets opened.
Tip: Adelaide -12.5 against Port ($1.90)
The question vexing everyone in Rugby League right now is, where will Cooper Cronk end up, if anywhere, when he moves to Sydney next year? Everyone except punters, that is. Of more concern to them is, how will his Melbourne Storm respond to the announcement when they line up against the Sharks on Sunday? Well, if you follow the money trail, the answer could be, poorly. Cronulla hasn’t beaten the Storm in Melbourne since 2008, but the early betting suggests the $2.85 outsiders may just shade the $1.43 favourites.
Before that game, there are several others to ponder and it would appear punters are optimistic about the Chooks’ chances to cause an upset against Brisbane tonight (Thursday) at Suncorp. In a huge betting game, The Roosters have been solid at $2.10 with the Broncos out from $1.70 to $1.77. Both sides come off losses in low scoring games last week and that has seen a push for ‘under’ 36 points as the game total.
The Panthers have won their last two home games against Souths, but with naughty boys Moylan, Blake and Hill all dropped from first grade this week for getting on the drink, Penrith’s price has eased significantly from $1.25 to $1.60 and might get out even further. Penrith had been the most popular team through multis prior to the announcement, but unlike the drinks last Saturday night, the parley dough has since run dry.
Tip: Roosters to beat the Broncos ($2.05)
Last week’s round of Super Rugby looked pretty straight forward, and that is how it all panned out when all seven favourites won. There were plenty who availed themselves to that multi which hovered at around the $3.10 mark. Line punters didn’t fare so well though, only four of the seven favourites covered their lines.
This week there are four games that at least look competitive from a betting angle, and one of those is an all Aussie clash between the Brumbies and the Reds. The Brumbies are $1.36 and on track to top the Aussie conference. Most of the early money is for the Brumbies to win or cover the 6.5 handicap. The Reds have lost their last 11 away games and their last 4 matches against the Brumbies. They seem to have trouble scoring when they play the Brumbies, and face an uphill battle here.
It is hard to believe that the Force are clearly the shortest of the Australian sides this week, but they really should justify the $1.10 quote and beat the Southern Kings by a big margin. Since coming back into the competition the only away win to the Kings has been against the Sunwolves, while the Force have been ok in their losses to much better sides this season. The -16.5 for the Force has been met with solid support.
Tip: Stormers to beat the Chiefs ($2.50)
Lewis Hamilton had his colours lowered in Melbourne when a short priced favourite, but UBET punters think he will bounce back this week in the Chinese GP.
Hamilton was $1.45 to win the Aussie GP but was outfoxed by eventual winner Sebastian Vettel ($3.25), and had to be content with second place. We opened both of these at $2.25 to win in Shanghai but the bulk of the early money has been for Hamilton. He has the form on the board here as well, having won 5 times, the last of those in 2015. Nico Rosberg won last year but of course has retired. Daniel Ricciardo had all sorts of problems in Melbourne both before the start, and then when he had to withdraw mid race, so it’s hard to know where his Red Bull machine is at, but his loyal followers are on again at $17.
Tip: Hamilton to win the Chinese GP $2.20
Spaniard Maverick Vinales won the season opener in Qatar a couple of weeks ago, but surprisingly it is Marc Marquez ($2.50) who is the opening favourite with UBET for this week’s Argentinian GP. Marques has won two of the last three races in Argentina and splitting those wins was a victory to Valentino Rossi in 2015. Marquez finished fourth in Losail but the Honda’s did show enough in practise to say that they would be a force again this year. Vinales is second pick at $3.00, with the ever reliable Rossi next in line at $6.00, just ahead of Jorge Lorenzo at $8.00. Andrea Dovizioso started the year in style when runner-up in Qatar, and although the Italian doesn’t win out of turn, he is always a strong chance to grab a podium finish.
Tip: Maverick Vinales to win the Argentinian GP
Symmons Plains in Tasmania will be hosting the Supercars this week with a race of 50 laps on Saturday. The second race is on Sunday over the longer trip of 84 laps.
The Supercars had four sprint races at the recent Grand Prix in Melbourne, but each of those were only over 13 laps and were not for Championship points. Shane Van Gisbergen started the season in Adelaide with two wins and that was on top of winning the title last year, so he is justifiably the $3.50 favourite to win race 1 in Tassie. Scott McLaughlin and Jamie Whincup share the second line of betting at $4.50, just ahead of Fabian Coulthard ($5.00) who won two of those four sprints in Melbourne. Van Gisbergen won race 1 at Symmons Plains last year defeating Will Davison then Davison went on to win that race, but he’s an $81 pop this week.
Tip: Van Gisbergen to win Supersprint Race 1 ($3.50)