GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 9TH MARCH
Brisbane ($1.82) and North Queensland ($2.00) have dished up several classic contests over the past few years and Friday night promises more of the same. Three of their last four encounters have gone to extra time, including the 2015 Grand Final and the 2016 sudden-death Semi Final, and margin punters are loading up on the Queensland Derby to finish in a draw at the end of regular time at $19. Both teams are unwanted 13+ so both the money trail and recent history suggest the game will go right down to the wire.
Round 1 surprise packet West Tigers have been a huge go early to roll the Penrith Panthers on Sunday. Crunched from $2.30 in to their current quote ($2.00), the young Tigers could well start the contest as favourites. Penrith busted more than a few NRL multis last week and nobody wants a bar of them at $1.82.
Away from the NRL, the all-conquering Maroons have been a little easy this week to win the 2017 State of Origin series and it’s all to do with one man, or more precisely, one man’s bung knee. Greg Inglis’ season-ending injury has seen Queensland swell ever so slightly from $1.60 to $1.62 to claim yet another interstate series, while the Blues have been $2.35 into $2.30.
Tip: West Tigers to defeat Penrith ($2.00)
The season opening is still 2 weeks away but the women’s version of the game has kept AFL in the news this week. The Brisbane Lions remain the only undefeated side (5 from 5) and are now firmly on track to host the Grand Final. The Lions are into $2.00 now ahead of Adelaide at $2.50, Carlton ($8.00) and Melbourne ($10). This week’s matches are now open for business.
Josh Kennedy from West Coast has shortened up to win the Coleman Medal, now a $3.75 chance after opening at $4.00. Kennedy has attracted a major portion of the business so far but several other players have also been backed. Tom Lynch ($6.00), Eddie Betts ($15), Taylor Walker ($15), and Joe Daniher ($15) have all met with solid support but the most popular outside Kennedy is definitely Jarryd Roughead, who has been backed from $51 into $26. What a wonderful story that would be! Oddly, the least popular of those in the market is Lance Franklin, currently the second fav at $4.25. It was interesting to see that Dermott Brereton said last week it is possible the Coleman Medal winner could kick under 50 goals. If that is to be the case, it is wide open!
AFL Tip: JLT Community Series - North Melbourne at the + 26 to beat GWS ($2.00)
Favourites won five of the nine matches in round 2, with four of those covering the line but the biggest line move was for the Hurricanes conceding the start and their supporters had that covered by half time. The line was backed from an opening -22.5 and started at -25.5 and the Canes led the Rebels 31-6 at the break before going on to record a massive 71-6 victory. The Hurricanes are $4.50 equal favourites with the Chiefs to win the title and the Crusaders ($6.00) round out the top 3 in betting. The Lions have won both games but have interestingly eased from $6.50 out to $7.00.
There are only eight matches this week, and two of those have dominant favourites. The Cheetahs are 32.5 favourites over the Sunwolves, while the Stormers are 20 point favourites against the Kings and it is hard to put up an argument as to how either outsider can get within that mark. No doubt the match of the round will be the Chiefs v Hurricanes clash at Hamilton on Friday night. The UBET bookmakers couldn’t split them and both are $1.90 but the early trend has been in favour of the Chiefs. Points are normally hard to come by when these two play, so we are tipping a low total of around 40 points.
The Crusaders have won their past five games against the Reds with the average winning margin being 25 points! That is a damning stat if you are a Reds supporter but they have met with good support to win at home on Saturday night. The $3.05 for the Reds has been popular as has the +7.5 ($1.90). The last time the Reds beat the Crusaders was in the final in 2011 but their side does look better than the one we have seen over the past couple of seasons.
Tip: Blues to beat the Highlanders ($1.70)
Football punters only get two games to bet on this week with the league implementing a split-round across two weekends to give the Asian Champions League teams a break from the domestic competition. Sydney FC can take another step towards securing the Premiers Plate on Friday with a win over the Central Coast Mariners ($11) and the public seems to think the Sky Blues will. At $1.23, Sydney is one of the more popular choices through multis across all codes. Melbourne Victory dropped the bundle last week in the Big Blue but the early support suggests at $1.70 they can bounce back against Perth ($4.40) tomorrow. Like Sydney FC, the Victory has been a widespread selection in sports multis.
Tip: Melbourne Victory to defeat Perth Glory (1.70)
The revamped Super Netball season was expected to be won by the Collingwood Magpies and although that may still be the way the season goes, those who took the short odds before round 1 would have a few worries. The Magpies have only won one of their three matches to date and were beaten at home 59-51 by the Giants last week. Collingwood still remain the fav’s at $2.50 but it is the unbeaten Giants who at the moment look the value at $3.00.
The game of the round this week will be the Sunshine Coast Lightning at home to the Giants. The Sunshine Coast were impressive 9 goal winners over Adelaide last week and had to do that without star centre Laura Langman but she is some hope of playing in this weekend’s crucial clash, so that may swing the pendulum in favour of the Lightning.
Tip: Giants to cover the -2.5 line against the Sunshine Coast Lightning ($1.90)
Round 2 of the Superbikes will be held in Thailand this week after Jonathan Rea dominated the first round winning both races at Phillip Island. The title race looks a race in two with Rea at $1.90 and Chaz Davies at $2.25 and it was Davies who finished second in both races in Australia. Rea will be the short priced favourite to win race 1 this weekend ahead of Davies and Tom Sykes with Marco Melandri the only other rider given any consideration.
Tip: Davies to win the Championship ($2.25)
After a dominant performance in the Clipsal 500, Shane Van Gisbergen has zoomed in to favouritism ($2.25) to record back to back Supercar Drivers Championships after scoring the maximum number of points, 300. Van Gisbergen won both races in Adelaide easily so the others clearly have plenty of work ahead of them.
The next round of races will be at the Australian Grand Prix where the Supercars will have 4 races over a short course. Race 1 is open with Van Gisbergen holding sway at $3.00 ahead of Jamie Whincup at $3.50 and Scott McLaughlin who finished on the podium (second and a third) in Adelaide.
Tip: Van Gisbergen to win ($3)