Round Twenty-Two AFL Picks

AFL ROUND 22

Richmond Tigers v Essendon Bombers

First game of the second last round of the AFL season and we've got the reigning premiers fronting up to the MCG for Friday night football against the Essendon Bombers. The Tigers will look to extend their AFL record of consecutive wins at the hallowed ground of football, by taking their unbeaten streak at the 'G to 20 wins. The Tigers are arguably the healthiest team in the competition at the moment and will now manage their players on the eve of their premiership defense. The Tigers return to Melbourne having spent last week in the Gold Coast in a glorified training run. The Tigers bulldozed their way to a 74-point victory at the expense of the Gold Coast Suns in what looks to be the last time the Tigers will have to leave Melbourne this year for any football action. Jack Riewoldt slingshot himself to the top of the Coleman medal tally with a haul of 10 goals and change. The Bombers mathematically kept their season alive with another win last Friday night when they were able to extend over the Saints in the latter stages. The immeasurable toll that win has cost the Bombers could very well be exposed here against the Tigers. The Bombers lost Saad through concussion via a high hit, Hooker with a right knee, Fantasia with a hamstring, Langford with his shoulder and Hurley through ankle soreness. The mentioned players are all questionable for this Friday night clash and it doesn't appear the Bombers will be able fill those holes in time. 

We are firmly in the Tigers corner here- the handicap is extremely generous for the Bombers considering the players they will be missing this weekend. Adam Saad will almost miss through his concussion last week, Michael Hurley is touch and go as of publication here and should they both definitely miss, along with Goddard, Fantasia and Hooker all definitely sidelined this weekend, the Tigers could replicate their round eleven scoreline from earlier this year (114 v 43). Take the Tigers to continue their streak at the MCG, roll the Bombers, ending their season in the process, and do it very well as the Tigers train rolls on.

OTP Recommendation

Richmond -16.53.0u at 1.90Bookie Image 1-3

Collingwood Magpies v Port Adelaide Power

Arguably, the second best team in the competition will attempt to solidify their top four position on the ladder when the Magpies welcome in the Port Adelaide Power, who have won just one game from the last five games. The Pies were able to fend off the Brisbane Lions last week covering the handicap in that contest as well. This was the first game back for Jordan De Goey who has become a barometer for the Pies as the year has unfolded. De Goey booted four goals last week and didn't look like he missed a beat. Port could be the most hard done by team in the competition at the moment. Just one week after opposing forward, Josh Jenkins claimed his match winning goal hit the post to get his Crows over the line against Port, Jeremy McGovern marked late into red-time last week against Port and kicked truly after the siren to again sink the Power. In the process, the Power lost Charlie Dixon to a season ending leg injury and Paddy Ryder to a re injured hip flexor. The importance of Ryder this year has been critical for Port as they now verge on missing finals. The correlation of them losing games when Ryder hasn't played poses the idea that Port simply cannot win with him.

The Pies are the closest threat to the Tigers this season, in my opinion, and will be dispatching teams like Port who have not fired a shot in the last month. Port have only won one game in their last five, albeit under very stiff circumstances, and their ability to close out games has inevitably cost them. They will now leave Adelaide and try and beat a team that is better than their last two opponents, which we simply do not see happening. Take the Pies to win here, solidify their top four standings, against a very sore and sorry Port team clinging to their finals aspirations. 

OTP Recommendation

Collingwood -23.52.5u at 1.90Bookie Image 2+2.25

GWS Giants v Sydney Swans

The Sydney derby tonight and the Giants and Swans will lock it up at Spotless stadium in what is shaping up to be a critical for both teams heading into their post season. The Giants were able to fend off the Crows last week that inevitably ended the Crows' season. The Swans kept their season alive by going down to Melbourne and out working the Demons in front of their own crowd. The win for the Swans means that not only are they still in the hunt for finals, but able to win their next two games, could finish top four. 

They've been blessed the last couple of weeks, the Sydney Swans, to get away with wins against the Pies after they looked beaten midway through the last and then to come to Melbourne and take advantage of the Demons having not been able to beat a top 8 team yet, means they're win streak has continued. It is hard to believe this same Swans team was rolled by the Suns just over a month ago and we're inclined to think that the Swans haven't really 'upped' their game, rather the opposition has just fallen around them. The Giants are a beaten side, literally, with many players injured or carrying some sort of injury but we expect the Giants to be able to get up over the Swans. Take the margin for play for the Giants as we believe the Giants will keep the Swans at arm's reach through to the end. 

OTP Recommendation

GWS Giants Margin 1-392.5u at 2.20Bookie Image 3-2.5

West Coast Eagles v Melbourne Demons

Some West-Australian football on Sunday afternoon as the Melbourne Demons will head to Perth to take on the Eagles in what appears a steep uphill battle for any team to go west and win. The West Coast Eagles heaped the pain on the Power last week, kicking truly after the siren to really solidify as a team to watch in the finals and notching their first win since having their superstar midfielder rubbed out for the remainder of the season. The Demons on the other hand, were left scrambling for their remains of their season after dropping another game by single figures when the Swans come to town and rolled them.

The Eagles have lost significant pieces, in what they would've believed in pre-season to be instrumental to their next flag, over the past six weeks but continue to win. The Demons failed another test for the year and now the realization of missing finals is coming to fruition. We can't see the Demons heading to Perth and winning here, no one else has been able to in recent times- their missing spearhead in Jesse Hogan rubber stamped this notion and we are going to be playing the Eagles straight up to roll the Demons today. One more win confirms top two and a lock for a first week home final, so, Eagles win and win well.

OTP Recommendation

West Coast Eagles Margin 1-392.5u at 2.15Bookie Image 4-2.5

Adelaide Crows v North Melbourne Kangaroos

Final game to finish off our round and we'll focus on North Melbourne heading to Adelaide to take on the Crows, in an attempt to keep their season alive. North Melbourne imploded their season last week when they surrendered a four goal lead at half time to the Dogs, allowing them to kick 13 goals in the second half. The Roos made the Dogs look like their premiership team of old and have now seriously jeopardized their chances of playing finals footy this year.  Adelaide had their season officially ended last week to the Giants when they were safely held, at Spotless. The Crows have battled for the better part of this year and their season will come under some scrutiny in the post season. 

North Melbourne have traveled well enough this year to assume they're going to hold their own in Adelaide this Sunday. The Crows season is all but over now and with the air out of their sails, and the fact the Roos can still make finals, we'll take the Roos to cover this three goal handicap and make a real game of it at the 'Crowville'. As of writing, Ben Jacobs was still not named to play but if he finds a way to get himself up for this game, this line could shorten quickly. Something extra for those looking for some value, Roos with the upset of the round. 

OTP Recommendation

North Melbourne +19.52.0u at 1.90Bookie Image 5+1.8

OTP Recommendation

North Melbourne To Win0.75u at 3.2Bookie Image 6-0.75

  • WEEKRESULTSSTAKESROI
    Finals Week Two +7.53 7.5 100%
    Finals Week One +8.45 13 65%
    Round Twenty-Two -4.7 13.25 -35%
    Round Twenty-One -4 13 -31%
    Round Twenty +3.76 10 38%
    Round Nineteen -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Round Eighteen -7.75 14 -55%
    Round Seventeen +0.68 7 10%
    Round Sixteen -4.11 12 -34%
    Round Fifteen -8.5 8.5 -100%
    Round Fourteen +6.5 8 81%
    Round Thirteen -7 7 -100%
    Round Twelve -0.72 5.5 -13%
    Round Eleven -2.93 7.5 -39%
    Round Ten +1.5 8 19%
    Round Nine +7.84 8.5 92%
    Round Eight +3.5 8 44%
    Round Seven +2.35 7.25 32%
    Round Six +1.15 5.5 21%
    Round Five +5.32 9 59%
    Round Four -2.1 6.5 -32%
    Round Three -0.35 5.5 -6%
    Round Two -1.5 6 -25%
    Round One +2.56 6 43%
    Total -2.02 206 -1%

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