Round Twenty-One AFL Picks


Essendon Bombers v St Kilda Saints

To open up our twenty first round of tips for the weekend, we're going to be taking a look at the Friday night encounter between the Bombers and the Saints. The Bombers were left heartbroken last week when the Hawks pipped them on the post last week in what was an 'Elimination Final' for both clubs. The Bombers played their breakneck style of football only to have some crucial moments late in the game cost them. The Saints went absolutely missing after half time last week. The Saints looked as if they were keeping the Dogs at arms reach for the better part of the first half, holding a comfortable 24pt lead. However, after half time, the insipid Western Bulldogs who have had issues scoring themselves, piled up 14 goals in the second half to run out 35pt winners. The pressure continues to build for St Kilda coach Alan Richardson. 

The Saints were too bad to be true last, too bad. We believe that they do have it in them to bounce back and getting back youngster Ben Long could bolster their forward line attack. The Saints are severely down on confidence at the moment but do have themselves some of the more efficient ball winners in Steven and Ross. The Bombers copped a fair whack to the finals aspirations last week and we're intended to think that they're going to be flat here with the potential of not playing finals footy for the year. Take the Saints to cover this handicap just shy of six goals, in a close affair on Friday night. 

OTP Recommendation

St Kilda +31.52.5u at 1.91Bookie Image 1-2.5

Hawthorn Hawks v Geelong Cats

A near ten year rivalry adds another page to the story when we see Hawthorn and Geelong lock it up center stage of the MCG, Saturday afternoon. Both teams here had margins of three points respectively last week with one being a winner and the other being a loser. The Hawks were able to cling on to a victory when the Bombers begun their late fourth quarter surge to get within three points before the final siren sounded. The Hawks led by as many as 28pts in the last and the final term doesn't truly reflect final result. The Cats, inversely, played the roll of chaser last week when they were left to reel in the reigning premiers on Friday night. The Cats had their chance to snag victory when Ablett missed a short shot on goal deep into red time. The Cats looked to be out of the game also last week when it appeared that the Tigers were just looking to hold on. Again, the final margin of both games did not reflect the true result of the game.

Because of the nature of last week's results, it will mean this game is now an elimination final for the Cats who cannot afford to lose anymore games. The Hawks had their first, and passed, their elimination final last week and will need to butter up again. The Cats have been playing strong enough footy and will regain the services of Tom Stewart who has been a hidden gem for the Cats plucked from their local footy competitions. The Cats have a superior midfield and should be able to dictate any influences hot Brownlow-favourite Tom Mitchell should have on the game. Take the Cats to win this game comfortably enough to shunt the Hawks to the bottom end of the 8.

OTP Recommendation

Geelong Cats -7.52.5u at 1.91Bookie Image 2-2.5

Port Adelaide Power v West Coast Eagles

The most talked-about team of the week, the West Coast Eagles, travel to Adelaide to square up to the Port Power who were arguably robbed in their own SA derby against the Crows, last week. Both teams here are coming out of their respective derbys of SA and WA. Andrew Gaff  was the talk of the country through the week with how many weeks he'd receive for his 'moment of madness'. The eight weeks has effectively ruled him out for the rest of the season and possible the rest of his West Coast career? West Coast comfortably accounted for Fremantle last week, before and after the Gaff incident and now have four wins from the past five outings. Port continue a real flat form run having only won one game in the last month and three wins in the last seven games with two of them coming against Carlton and St Kilda.

The Eagles will still be without Josh Kennedy who appears to be eyeing his return for the first week of the finals. Gaff will obviously miss, but the Eagles are still a formidable unit that have pushed themselves to the top end of the table missing stars all year.  West Coast have historically played well in Adelaide and we're confident that they will lift themselves over this Port team that will no doubt be flat after last week's missed opportunity. West Coast to win and send the Power into a tail spin. 

OTP Recommendation

West Coast Eagles To Win1.5u at 2.8Bookie Image 3+2.7

Collingwood Magpies v Brisbane Lions

Saturday night footy and we've got the visiting Brisbane Lions hitting Melbourne to take on the injury ravaged Collingwood Magpies at Etihad Stadium. The Pies looked to have the Swans beaten last week when they surged to the lead midway through the final quarter only for the Swans to pick themselves up off the canvas and snatch victory back. Brisbane rattled off back to back wins a couple rounds ago but since then have dropped off slightly. They were left pondering what could've been as first-year player, Cameron Rayner missed a simple shot on goal deep into red time last week, against the Kangaroos. The Lions now have two travelling away games before finishing their season in Brisbane in three weeks time. 

The Pies are starting to get back some of their players that have been out injured, most notably, Jordan De Goey who looked set to miss significant time with a leg injury courtesy of a stress fracture. The Pies are fighting, scrapping unit that have been patching their team they put on the park all year. This inclusion can only make it easier for them as they try to hold onto their top four finals hopes. Take the Pies to win and win well here as they tighten the screws heading into finals. 

OTP Recommendation

Collingwood Magpies -24.52.5u at 1.92Bookie Image 4+2.3

Melbourne Demons v Sydney Swans

We've left our biggest throw at the stumps until last as we have the Sydney Swans heading to Melbourne to take on the Demons in arguably is the match of the round. The Swans were able to rally after being headed mid way through the final term last week against the Pies to keep their season alive. Buddy responded in convincing fashion to boot six of the Swans 11 goals for the match. The Demons had themselves a tune up when they belted the Suns back to the Gold Coast by a touch under one hundred points. 

We'll be making this one our best of the week. The Swans grovelled a win last week against the Pies who effectively had no one to play on Buddy after half time. We don't expect the Demons to be so undermanned and they should be able to flex all over the Swans here. This is a significant step up in competition for the Demons but if they're going to be anywhere near what the public are making them out to be, then they'll be winning this.The Demons know they need to keep winning if they're going to break their finals drought and nothing says a win more than knocking off the Swans in Melbourne. Take the Demons to FINALLY beat their first top 8 opponent of the year, and do it well as they belt the Swans back to Sydney, too

OTP Recommendation

Melbourne Demons -18.54.0uBookie Image 5-4

    Grand Final -10 10 -100%
    Finals Week Three -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Two +7.53 7.5 100%
    Finals Week One +8.45 13 65%
    Round Twenty-Two -4.7 13.25 -35%
    Round Twenty-One -4 13 -31%
    Round Twenty +3.76 10 38%
    Round Nineteen -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Round Eighteen -7.75 14 -55%
    Round Seventeen +0.68 7 10%
    Round Sixteen -4.11 12 -34%
    Round Fifteen -8.5 8.5 -100%
    Round Fourteen +6.5 8 81%
    Round Thirteen -7 7 -100%
    Round Twelve -0.72 5.5 -13%
    Round Eleven -2.93 7.5 -39%
    Round Ten +1.5 8 19%
    Round Nine +7.84 8.5 92%
    Round Eight +3.5 8 44%
    Round Seven +2.35 7.25 32%
    Round Six +1.15 5.5 21%
    Round Five +5.32 9 59%
    Round Four -2.1 6.5 -32%
    Round Three -0.35 5.5 -6%
    Round Two -1.5 6 -25%
    Round One +2.56 6 43%
    Futures -6 6 -100%
    Total -27.52 231.5 -12%

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