Round Nineteen AFL Picks

AFL ROUND 19

Essendon Bombers v Sydney Swans

The Bombers are looking continue their 'unlikely' run towards the finals when they tackle the stumbling Sydney Swans. The Bombers put the Fremantle Dockers away last week while the Sydney Swans played part in the biggest upset of the season, going down to the Gold Coast suns in Sydney.

The Bombers were able to keep their final's hopes alive with another win against the Fremantle Dockers on Saturday night. The final scoreline is alot more flattering for the Bombers than it reads as the Dockers were leading at the first and main charge before the Bombers crept back into the contest and kicked away in the final stages, when the game had been won. The Dockers didn't put up much resistance and weren't expected to, with their main duo of Sandilands and Fyfe still out with their respective injuries. The Bombers lost key forward McKernan with a hamstring strain and looks unlikely to get up for this game against the Swans. The Bombers have now rattled off five wins from their past six games. The Swans season was sent into a tailspin on the weekend when they were embarrassed by the visiting Gold Coast Suns last Saturday afternoon. This loss marked the first time losing to the Gold Coast Suns since their inception. The Swans now sit in a precarious position with their season now as they cannot afford to lose another game that they definitely should be winning. The Swans currently sit 4th on the ladder with three teams beneath them with better % and only one game behind. The Swans have the Magpies, Demons, Giants and Hawks to come and will definitely be taking aim at the task at hand this weekend.

No one could have predicted a Swans loss to the Gold Coast suns last week and we're not going to be drawing too much attention to this as a form reference. The rebound factor from the Swans will come into play here- the Swans arguably play Etihad Stadium just as well as any other club in the competition and now know their finals aspirations are now on the line. The Bombers have strung together some good performances in the past month but when the Swans need to win, they always find a way. Take the Swans price early as be think this will shorten by the time the ball is bounced. Swans victory on Friday night footy. 

OTP Recommendation

Sydney Swans To Win2.0u at 2.1Bookie Image 1-2

Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions

For the second time this season the Cats were able to steal victory from the clutches from the Melbourne Demons. This was a win the Cats needed to notch as they were in serious jeopardy of missing the finals if they had lost this one. Surprisingly, the Cats fell outside the 8 on percentage and if we were to reverse both results to the Demons this year, the Cats would be sitting 12th and the Demons would be sitting equal second. Tom Hawkins played one of the games of his career, booting four goals in the final term and seven for the game. He was instrumental in the Cats resurgence having been down by 29 points to begin the final quarter. Gary Ablett was also able to turn it on, collecting 14 disposals in the final term also. Brisbane 

For the second time this season the Cats were able to steal victory from the clutches from the Melbourne Demons. This was a win the Cats needed to notch as they were in serious jeopardy of missing the finals if they had lost this one. Surprisingly, the Cats fell outside the 8 on percentage and if we were to reverse both results to the Demons this year, the Cats would be sitting 12th and the Demons would be sitting equal second. Tom Hawkins played one of the games of his career, booting four goals in the final term and seven for the game. He was instrumental in the Cats resurgence having been down by 29 points to begin the final quarter. Gary Ablett was also able to turn it on, collecting 14 disposals in the final term also. Brisbane had themselves another 'honourable' loss on the weekend when the Crows were able to sneak away from the Gabba with a five point win. The Lions were in the contest for much of the night and with the exclusion of a couple of poor errors in judgement, should've been the ones with their theme song playing after the final siren. Zorko and Beams were their trojan-like selves and were able to really take it up to the elite midfield of the Crows. Eric Hipwood and Mitch Robertson were also serviceable for the Lions throughout the contest. 

The last time the Brisbane Lions were sent out as 6-goal underdogs, they were able to roll the Hawks down in Tasmania. Geelong pulled out all the stops in the final quarter last week just to get the win and we're inclined to think the Cats could be a little slow off the mark here against the Lions. The Lions have had no issues scoring away from home this season and if they were to play up to their standard of footy over the past month, will have no dramas covering this handicap. Take Brisbane to cover the current line of +34.5 at the moment as we believe this line will only shrink the closer we get towards this weekend. 

OTP Recommendation

Brisbane Lions +34.52.5u at 1.91Bookie Image 2-2.5

North Melbourne Kangaroos v West Coast Eagles

North Melbourne fell outside the top 8 for the first time in over two months and will be looking to desperate get back in the winner's list before their window for finals footy closes on them. The Kangaroos were unable to hang with the Pies on the weekend and inevitably fell to them by 66 points. The West Coast Eagles were had themselves their training run on late Sunday afternoon as they were able to easily navigate themselves past the visting Western Bulldogs to the tune of 54 points. 

North Melbourne are starting to feel the effects of the long AFL season. They have now dropped back to back games and took a serious beating for their efforts on the weekend. They forced play to come to a halt a total of eight times on the weekend for blood rules and alot of questions remaing on whether they'll be getting the services of any of their injured back. Mason Wood and Jarrod Waite still look weeks away while Ben Jacobs injury of concussion appears to be more serious than oringinally thought and sustained, six weeks ago now. North losing their last two have cast huge shadows over their finals campaign and whether or not they'll make it. Majak Daw playing up forward has been the shining light of the Roos team, having kicked seven goals in the last night fortnight. The West Coast Eagles are returning to their first half of the season form after they trounced the Doggies on the weekend. They appear to be getting back to full health all over the park and it is only a matter of selection now on whether Liam Ryan returns to the Eagles forward line also. Shannon Hurn has found himself in a situation and will be sweating on an MRO decision after a late hit on Mitch Wallis. Since the trio of Kennedy, LeCras and Darling all returned from injury, they have combined for 15 goals, 11 points in the last fortnight and look to be running riot on opposition defenses. 

As of writing, Shannon Hurn had not been givien his sanction for his late hit but we're inclined to think that it will be graded as careless, with low impact which should see him get a fine, at most. We would be highly surprised if anything more was to come of it and as it were, we will be playing the Eagles as if he will be suiting up. The Eagles kicked 44 points in the first quarter and effectively had the game won after that point. This will not be as close as the odds suggest and we're going to be betting accordingly. Our best bet of the weekend- Take the Eagles to win this matchup and heap more pain on the North Melbourne Kangaroos.  

OTP Recommendation

West Coast Eagles To Win5.0u at 1.8Bookie Image 3-5

  • WEEKRESULTSSTAKESROI
    Grand Final -10 10 -100%
    Finals Week Three -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Two +7.53 7.5 100%
    Finals Week One +8.45 13 65%
    Round Twenty-Two -4.7 13.25 -35%
    Round Twenty-One -4 13 -31%
    Round Twenty +3.76 10 38%
    Round Nineteen -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Round Eighteen -7.75 14 -55%
    Round Seventeen +0.68 7 10%
    Round Sixteen -4.11 12 -34%
    Round Fifteen -8.5 8.5 -100%
    Round Fourteen +6.5 8 81%
    Round Thirteen -7 7 -100%
    Round Twelve -0.72 5.5 -13%
    Round Eleven -2.93 7.5 -39%
    Round Ten +1.5 8 19%
    Round Nine +7.84 8.5 92%
    Round Eight +3.5 8 44%
    Round Seven +2.35 7.25 32%
    Round Six +1.15 5.5 21%
    Round Five +5.32 9 59%
    Round Four -2.1 6.5 -32%
    Round Three -0.35 5.5 -6%
    Round Two -1.5 6 -25%
    Round One +2.56 6 43%
    Futures -6 6 -100%
    Total -27.52 231.5 -12%

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