Round Eighteen AFL Picks


Collingwood Magpies v North Melbourne Kangaroos

The Pies and the Roos are both coming off losses last week and will be looking to rebound back into the winner's circle this weekend. The Pies faded late to the visiting West Coast Eagles last week while the Roos were pipped on the line by a depleted Swans outfit that had made their way down from Sydney.

The Magpies had their winning streak of seven brought to an abrupt halt last week when the Eagles shocked the Pies and run out 35-point winners. The late omission of Mason Cox proved vital for the Pies who were left scrambling for options down back to counter the tall West Coast forwards. Mason Cox will almost certainly return to the lineup for the Pies this week after having a week to rest from general soreness. Jordan De Goey booted four goals last week but it appears that the Pies are struggling for goal kicking options. De Goey was sorely missed in the midfield but was forced to stay forward for large portions of the game. Steel Sidebottom was ominously quiet last week and will almost certainly respond to that performance this weekend with a stronger effort. Jaidyn Stephenson was also unusually quiet for his standards but a downturn on the first-year rookie is to be expected. The Kangaroos had themselves every chance possible last week against the Swans- leading with 8 minutes remaining in the final quarter, Swans down their prime ball winner in Josh Kennedy, and still weren't able to get the job done. Ziebell was a shining light for the Roos up forward with the veteran bagging five majors on his own. Ben Jacobs has been sorely missed in the past month for the Roos and since he's been out, the Roos have gone 1-2 without him.

Sickeningly stiff for OTP followers last week who took the Roos to win straight up. We were rolled on the death with the Sydney Swans fullback kicking the match-winning goal against us in redtime. We're bullish on the Roos here and think they'll be able to go one better than they did last week. Ben Jacobs should make his return to the Roos lineup and if he does, this selection is a lock. Roos to win here and hopefully right their wrong from last week.

OTP Recommendation

North Melbourne Kangaroos To Win2.0u at 2.45-2

Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows

Unlike the first game we've covered, both Brisbane Lions and Adelaide Crows won last week as outsiders and will enter this matchup at the Gabba with confidence. The Crows are coming off an extended nine day break, having beaten the Cats last Thursday night by 15 points. The Brisbane Lions went south to Tasmania and rolled the Hawks in an impressive display. 

Arguably the form team of the competition at the moment, the Brisbane Lions, took their biggest scalp of the season last week by upsetting the Hawks down at their second home of Tasmania. The Lions entered the game as +28.5 underdogs which was seemingly under threat of extending when Luke Hodge pulled himself from the starting lineup due to a calf niggle he had copped through the week. Hodge looks set to return to the Brisbane defense after his week off. The Lions are averaging just over 105 ppg in their last month's worth of footy and will relish getting back on their home deck this weekend. The Crows rekindled their final's aspirations last week by holding tough against the Geelong Cats (who now look in trouble of playing finals footy themselves). The win was soured with the blind hit (and now suspension) of Taylor Walker on Zach Tuohy. Walker will miss this week's clash and the Crows will now rely on the leadership of Sloane and Laird to get the rest of the playing group up for this.

Brisbane are starting to show signs of their youth growing up and their past three games have been very impressive showings. We're inclined to take the Lions here straight up. Crows may miss Talia (again) and their skipper through suspension so, as has been the case for most of their year, will be undermanned for this matchup. Brisbane win and extend their win streak to four games on their home turf.  

OTP Recommendation

Brisbane Lions To Win3.0u at 2.17-3

Geelong Cats v Melbourne Demons

Saturday night football and we've got the Geelong Cats who return to their sanctuary of the Cattery having went to Adelaide last week and being beaten by a spirited Adelaide Crows. The Cats will welcome the Melbourne Demons into town after they easily accounted for the Dogs last week. 

The Cats were far from disgraced last week as they fell to Adelaide over in South Australia. Dan Menzel made his return in that game and had a modest outing with just the six touches and the goal. He'll be better for the run and is expected to progress further in his second game out. Tom Hawkins booted four goals last week and is in just about career best form as of late, averaging 3 goals a game since his mid-season bye. The Cats are now starting to hit their stride and despite losing last week, having shown enough to continue pushing towards finals footy. The Demons showed a clear class edge against the Dogs last week, flicking the switch and booting away in the third quarter and effectively putting the game to bed after that. Jack Viney was a late out for the Demons in what we now know to be a much serious injury than first mentioned for the Demons. He is expected to miss the rest of the regular season of football and return for their finals campaign.

Marquee games like this are the ones that the Cats really lift for. The blow of Harry Taylor missing again will be softened by the return of Lachie Henderson making his long awaited returned to the lineup. The Cats swing-man will be a welcomed inclusion and will shore up the Cats backline. Michael Hibberd injuring himself throughout the week all but locked this selection up for us who have won 21 straight games down in Geelong with the exception of the Sydney Swans. Take the Cats to win this game and win it well in front of their home crowd on a brisk Saturday night. 

OTP Recommendation

Geelong Cats -9.53.0u at 1.92-3

West Coast Eagles v Western Bulldogs

The West Coast Eagles have turned a corner in their march towards finals, having gone to Melbourne, won there and beaten a top 8 team in the process. The Eagles defeated a the Pies last week while the Bulldogs eventually fell to a Demons outfit that flicked the switch in the third quarter. Up to that point, the Dogs were looking competitive.

The Eagles have returned themselves to some serious form in the last fortnight having rolled the Giants and the Pies in consecutive weeks. Much of the hype in the lead up to this game was the return of Kennedy, Darling, LeCras and Waterman who ironically booted 9 goals 8 points between them. This was telling for a team that had played without these four for the better part of the month prior. The win last week was soured by the season-ending injury to Nic Naitanui who ruptured a second ACL to his knee. The response from the West Coast Eagles after Nic-Nat went down was pivotal and Scott Lycett stood up in a big way. He will now shoulder the ruck duties for the remainder of the season and becomes just about their most important player. The Doggies have dished up two very ordinary performances in the past fortnight having been downed by an average of just under 10 goals during that span. Bontempelli is questionable to return to the line after his appendix surgery and any common sense would suggest he'd miss this game also. Tom Boyd could make the trip west for the Doggies in this matchup.

We're going to take aim here at the totals market. The total match points of 145.5 seems to be right on considering the rain coming from WA so we're going to bring into question the Team Total for West Coast here. The Eagles will notch the win here and with the Dogs clogging their backline up and the rain coming, we're expecting the West Coast bigs to have a rough time of it up forward and for their team total to go under. 

OTP Recommendation

Home Team Total Under 92.53.5u at 1.92-3.5

Port Adelaide v Greater Western Sydney Giants

Cracking game to finish off the weekend's worth of footy. The Power were left red-faced last week when they were beaten in Perth by a 40-point underdog Fremantle, in a low scoring affair. The GWS Giants gave the reigning premiers their fourth loss of the season when they held on against the fast-finishing Tigers.

Port Adelaide dished up one of their worst performances of the year last week when they went to Perth as -40.5 favourites and were beaten by nine points. They were unable to find any fluency and it was obvious from the outset that Fremantle's tactic was to slow down Power and make them grind out the win. Power had insult added to injury when Robbie Gray was concussed from an illegal tackle and Paddy Ryder was forced to watch from the sidelines as he strained his hip-flexor. Gray is a 'touch'n'go' prospect for this game and Ryder will definitely miss this clash. The Giants took the scalp they needed to revitalize their season's hopes of playing finals knocking off the Tigers. Toby Greene made his long awaited return from his footy injury and was a presence up forward that the Giants are lacking at the moment. Himmelberg and Langdon impressed for the Giants last week with the latter booted 3 of his own.

The 'Orange Tsunami' are starting to warm up and having defeated the Tigers last week, have put the league on notice. The Giants will all but solidify their Sepetember's action if they can get over the line here and we're thinking they will. Toby Greene will be better for the first up run and with the Port outs, the Giants should be favourites, in all fairness. Take the Giants to win to round out the weekend's action. 

OTP Recommendation

Greater Western Sydney Giants To Win2.5u at 2.5+3.75

    Grand Final -10 10 -100%
    Finals Week Three -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Two +7.53 7.5 100%
    Finals Week One +8.45 13 65%
    Round Twenty-Two -4.7 13.25 -35%
    Round Twenty-One -4 13 -31%
    Round Twenty +3.76 10 38%
    Round Nineteen -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Round Eighteen -7.75 14 -55%
    Round Seventeen +0.68 7 10%
    Round Sixteen -4.11 12 -34%
    Round Fifteen -8.5 8.5 -100%
    Round Fourteen +6.5 8 81%
    Round Thirteen -7 7 -100%
    Round Twelve -0.72 5.5 -13%
    Round Eleven -2.93 7.5 -39%
    Round Ten +1.5 8 19%
    Round Nine +7.84 8.5 92%
    Round Eight +3.5 8 44%
    Round Seven +2.35 7.25 32%
    Round Six +1.15 5.5 21%
    Round Five +5.32 9 59%
    Round Four -2.1 6.5 -32%
    Round Three -0.35 5.5 -6%
    Round Two -1.5 6 -25%
    Round One +2.56 6 43%
    Futures -6 6 -100%
    Total -27.52 231.5 -12%

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