Round Fifteen AFL Picks


Richmond Tigers v Sydney Swans

We're officially over the mid-season hump of the AFL season and a full round of footy resumes tonight with a top of the table clash. The Sydney Swans have come to town in an attempt to take the top spot of the AFL ladder and will have to contend with reigning premiers if they are to do so. 

The match of the round will be our first and they will both be just about full strength. The Tigers are in such a position now that they're dropping premiership players simply because they cannot fit them in. Kamdyn McIntosh will be ommited from the Tigers lineup tonight and will make way for Dion Prestia who has only played four games for the year, so far. The caveat to this matchup is that it will be played at Etihad stadium and not at the 'G where the Tigers are now notoriously hard to beat. The Tigers jammed us a fortnight ago when they were able to beat and cover against the Cats in what was technically a Cats home ground game, also played at the 'G. However it was they last performance at Etihad that will be concentrating on as the Kangaroos had taken the lead midway through the final term that showed that the Tigers were not all that inpenetrable in Melbourne. The Swans had themselves a stronger record outside of Sydney in the first half of the year and half of those games were played at Etihad. They are more than comfortable playing on this ground and have shown that their adaptabiility to game styles has allowed them to win in most circumstances. The midseason break for the Swans has allowed for Jarrod McVeigh to recover from his calf injury and will be available for selection for this matchup against the Tigers.

We have made a habit of taking on the Tigers this year and it has been a touch costly for us, however- tonight the Swans right the ship for us. The Swans haven't dropped a game since they were stunned back in round seven against North and since then have turned a corner that is seeing them playing premiership football. We took on the Tigers last week against the Cats and we'll be taking them on again with a refreshed Swans. Take the Swans to win with any book that offers the early payout and see the Swans take the top of the AFL table tonight.

OTP Recommendation

Sydney Swans To Win1.5u at 2.75-1.5

Adelaide Crowds v West Coast Eagles

The nigthmare that is the Adelaide Crows will have their final 'hurrah' in an attempt to save their season when the West Coast Eagles stop by Adelaide Oval for Saturday afternoon football. The Crows are coming off their mid-season bye and should be refreshed while the Eagles were embarassed by the Bombers last week, getting rolled over in WA. 

The West Coast Eagles were left red-faced last week when they fell to a hungry Bombers that were prepared to run off their backline and expose a much slower Eagles outfit. What was more interesting was that the Eagles, simply had no answer for a big portion of the first half of this game. The Bombers were able to skip out to a six goal lead before they attempted to do something different. The most glaring downfall for the Eagles was their 6.16 scoreline for 59 forward line entries. The Eagles had 14 more entries than the Bombers inside their forward 50 but still fell by 28 points. Kennedy, Darling will again be sidelined this week and to add insult to injury will now miss Mark LeCras through a wrist injury. That is a combined 79 goals of the 2018 season that will be missing through injury and will need to see more from their forwards that are left. Adelaide questionably chose mid-afternoon on Saturday last week to call a conference to claim that their pre-season camp had taken its toll on the playing group more than could have been calculated. Don Pyke claimed that the pre-season camp, along with their soft tissue injuries, was to blame for their poor run of form. Adelaide had themselves a bye and were out of the spotlight for the week but seemed to want to keep themselves in it by throwing this out there. It appeared to be nothing more than an excuse from the Adelaide Crows when they weren't expected to do anything more than have themselves a rest for the weekend. They will have some handy inclusions this Saturday, and it is much needed, as Laird, Sloane and Tom Lynch will head the return list for the Crows. 

West Coast have lost some structure in their forward line and now Mark Lecras will miss, the question has to be asked- where will the goals come from for the Eagles? Adelaide simply need this win more than West Coast and with so many big inclusions for the Crows, they will be the good things of the weekend. The value is already gone from this game but take the handicap as the Crows get the monkey off their back and West Coast are left looking for more avenues to goal moving forward. 

OTP Recommendation

Adelaide -11.52.5u at 1.92-2.5

OTP Recommendation

Total Score Under 165.52.5u at 1.9-2.5

Essendon Bombers v North Melbourne Kangaroos

The Bombers return to Melbourne after notching their most impressive victory of the season, having gone to WA and knocking off the West Coast Eagles. North Melbourne were also victors last week when they pinched the victory from the clutches of the Doggies jaw, kicking a goal on the death to win by two points.

The Bombers flew the blocks last week, kicking themselves out to a handy lead at the first change that shell shocked their opponents. West Coast were never able to recover and the Bombers ran out the game convincing winners to notch another win for the season. The Bombers now continue to win games they should lose, and lose the ones they should win. The would appear to be one of the harder teams to catch but last week's effort was a stark contrast to what they dished up to Richmond just under a month ago in the dream time of the 'G matchup. The Bombers have now won four of their last five games and are building a now building a nice enough run of form to come into such a game, like this weekend, at pick'em prices. Their obvious change of tactics to run off the half back has paid huge dividends and converted Gold Coast Sun, Adam Saad, has been the catalyst for this penetrating offense. Their attack off their half back line is a mirror image of the Premier-Western Bulldogs of 2016 with the like of Johannisen and Bob Murphy streaming out of their defense. The Kangaroos notched another important victory for their season as they build towards a finals campaign. Goldstein, Higgins, Brown and Ziebell, fittingly all combined for their final passage of play to kick the final goal on the death. The story of the game was Ben Jacobs who was a late omission last week with a delayed onset from concussion. He is expected to return to the lineup and when he plays, the Roos midfield is significantly stronger. Shaun Higgins catapulted himself into Brownlow contention of his performance last week, but it was his second half performance that spark the conversation. His mediocre start to the game was put down to his tag at the time and at one point was cautioned for his hit on Robinson. 

The Kangaroos admittedly got themselves out of jail last week but maybe that was the wake up call that was needed for a team that is bound to play finals this year to kick themselves back into gear. They entered last week coming off a bye the week before and we're inclined to think that North Melbourne, second up, will up their game. The Bombers win was flattering against a team that simply didn't have the cattle to kick a goal and we've kept the formlines and taken on the Eagles above. In saying that, take the Roos to win and do it convincingly as they bully a much smaller Bombers outfit for the victory. 

OTP Recommendation

Kangaroos To Win2.0u at 1.92-2

    Grand Final -10 10 -100%
    Finals Week Three -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Two +7.53 7.5 100%
    Finals Week One +8.45 13 65%
    Round Twenty-Two -4.7 13.25 -35%
    Round Twenty-One -4 13 -31%
    Round Twenty +3.76 10 38%
    Round Nineteen -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Round Eighteen -7.75 14 -55%
    Round Seventeen +0.68 7 10%
    Round Sixteen -4.11 12 -34%
    Round Fifteen -8.5 8.5 -100%
    Round Fourteen +6.5 8 81%
    Round Thirteen -7 7 -100%
    Round Twelve -0.72 5.5 -13%
    Round Eleven -2.93 7.5 -39%
    Round Ten +1.5 8 19%
    Round Nine +7.84 8.5 92%
    Round Eight +3.5 8 44%
    Round Seven +2.35 7.25 32%
    Round Six +1.15 5.5 21%
    Round Five +5.32 9 59%
    Round Four -2.1 6.5 -32%
    Round Three -0.35 5.5 -6%
    Round Two -1.5 6 -25%
    Round One +2.56 6 43%
    Futures -6 6 -100%
    Total -27.52 231.5 -12%

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